NZD/USD – Page 3 – Tick Insights

FX Commentary – US Dollar Subdued Ahead Of Powell’s Congress Testimony

March 7, 2023Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar was subdued on Tuesday ahead of testimony by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, as investors awaited his testimony and jobs data due later this week for further indications on how much higher the U.S. central bank is likely to raise interest rates.

– Powell is likely to outline the path of interest rates in the coming months in his testimony before Congress and market will be watching for any new signals, given that while inflation unexpectedly rose in January, other economic indicators showed the U.S. economy was cooling.

– The Australian dollar declined to 0.6715 after Australia’s central bank raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to the highest in more than a decade at 3.60% on Tuesday. RBA said it expects further tightening will be needed to curb inflation but recent data suggested a lower risk of a cycle in which prices and wages chase one another.

– The euro was 0.03% lower at $1.0675, having risen nearly 0.5% overnight. Sterling was last trading at $1.2025. The Japanese yen weakened 0.15% to 136.14 per dollar ahead of the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday.

– Gold prices kept to a tight range on Tuesday as markets hunkered down ahead of more cues on monetary policy from a testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Bullion was trading at $1847.50 per ounce while silver was last at $21.07.

Chart Focus XAU/USD – Gold

Key Points

1. Buy Gold recommendation.

2. Buy Gold at $1845.00. Stop at $1838.00 and profit target at $1870.00

3. The US dollar is likely to be weighed down by Powell’s disinflation comment and weak economic data.

4. A Rising Wedge chart pattern and MACD are hinting at a price rally.

Fundamental Comments

1. Fed Chair Powell is likely to stick to his disinflation comment, keeping the US weak.

2. US economic data are hinting at a slowdown in the US economy, weighing on the US dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price could be forming a Rising Wedge chart pattern which is hinting at a rally in price.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a price rally.

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – After price reached a high at 137.09 last Thursday, price has been on a decline. There is an important support at 135.25. If price can stay above this support, we are likely to see another test of the 137.10 high. However, if price fails to hold above the support, price is likely to decline to a previous low at 134.60. Both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a price decline but stochastic is hinting at a price rally

Support	135.60	135.25	134.60
Resistance	136.15	136.65	137.10

EUR/USD – Price has been moving in a narrow range since last Wednesday and today price is likely to test the upper end of its range. If price is able to move above the previous high of 1.0690, we are likely to see a continuation of the rally to 1.0790. However, failure to move above 1.0690 is likely to send price lower to 1.0575 in the next couple of days. Stochastic is hinting at a limited upside but both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a price rally.

Support	1.0655	1.0610	1.0575
Resistance	1.0695	1.0730	1.0790

GBP/USD – After testing the low of 1.1915 on three different days, price has bounced up above the 20EMA and we are likely to see this rally continues towards the previous high at 1.2140. Stochastic is moving higher and hinting at a price rally, but the upside could be limited with stochastic inside the overbought zone. MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a bullish price trend. A move below 1.1990 would negate our bullish view.

Support	1.1990	1.1960	1.1910
Resistance	1.2050	1.2090	1.2140

AUD/USD – Price looks like it will decline below the recent low at 0.6695, despite a hike of 25 basis points by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA’s dovish comment actually sent price declining. Currently all 3 indicators, stochastic, MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a continuation of the price decline. We are likely to see a price decline to the next support level at 0.6620 in the next 24 hours.

Support	0.6685	0.6650	0.6620
Resistance	0.6730	0.6770	0.6805

NZD/USD – We had a buy recommendation yesterday at 0.6205, which was filled when price declined to a low of 0.6172. This was also just above our stop at 0.6170. Stochastic has a bullish crossover and is moving higher, hinting at a price rally. However both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bearish price trend. Our view remains unchanged and we would recommend keeping stop at 0.6170 and profit target at 0.6305.

Support	0.6170	0.6130	0.6095
Resistance	0.6215	0.6265	0.6310

FX Commentary – U.S. Dollar Holds Its Gains As Market Await NFP

March 6, 2023March 6, 2023Nicholas

Market Talk

– The U.S. dollar made a tentative start to the week on Monday as investors awaited testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and looked towards for a February jobs report that will likely influence how hawkish the U.S. central bank will be.

– The spotlight will be firmly on the February jobs report scheduled for Friday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Citibank strategists expect Powell to indicate a preference for a 25 bps hike but leave all options on the table, since he will speak before the jobs data are released.

– The euro was down 0.02% to $1.0632, having gained 0.8% last week. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.01% to 135.85 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.203, down 0.08% on the day.

– The offshore Chinese yuan opened at 6.9072 per dollar and was last changing hands at 6.9067. On Sunday, China set a modest target for 2023 economic growth of around 5% as it kicked off the annual session of its National People’s Congress.

– Gold prices were mixed on Monday amid some uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy. Bullion prices were aided by a drop in the dollar last week, breaking a five-week losing spree as traders reassessed their expectations for U.S. interest rate hikes this year.

Chart Focus NZD/USD

Key Points

1. Buy NZD/USD recommendation.

2. Buy NZD/USD at 0.6205. Stop at 0.6170 and profit target at 0.6305.

3. A strong China PMI data and a weak U.S. manufacturing activity are aiding the Kiwi.

4. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA line with MACD hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. A strong China PMI is aiding the Kiwi.

2. A weak U.S. manufacturing activity is weighing on the US dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA line.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend.

Key Levels

Support	0.6200	0.6170	0.6130
Resistance	0.6240	0.6275	0.6310

Technical Overview

Support	135.60	135.25	134.60
Resistance	136.10	136.65	137.10

EUR/USD – Price has been moving in a narrow range since last Wednesday and today is the fourth day of the narrow range movement. The 20EMA is hinting at a price rally that is likely to send price above the high at 1.0690. Stochastic and MACD are also hinting at a price rally. However, if price moves below 1.0570, it is likely to decline to 1.0530 in the next few days. We favour the upside.

Support	1.0610	1.0565	1.0530
Resistance	1.0655	1.0690	1.0730

GBP/USD – After testing the low of 1.1915 on three different days, price has bounced up above the 20EMA and we are likely to see this rally continues towards the previous high at 1.2140. Stochastic is moving higher and hinting at a price rally. Both 20EMA and MACD are also hinting at a price rally. We see price going up to 1.2140 in the next couple of days. A move below 1.1910 would negate our bullish view.

Support	1.2000	1.1960	1.1910
Resistance	1.2050	1.2090	1.2145

XAU/USD – Price has been moving higher since bottoming out on 28 February at $1804.50. Price has reached a high of $1856.40 this morning but this high was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator as well as the stochastic indicator. Price may have reached a high and we see price moving low to $1825-$1830 again in the next few days. 20EMA remains bullish so the decline may be a correction of the recent rally.

Support	1838.75	1825.70	1818.95
Resistance	1856.50	1870.05	1885.20

USD/CHF – After reaching a high at 0.9439, price has been on a decline. The decline has reached a previous low at 0.9340. A move below this support point would confirm a top in place and a decline lower to 0.9285. Both MACD and 20EMA are supporting this price decline with a bearish price trend hint. However, stochastic is close to the oversold zone and is hinting at a limited downside and a price bounce from this support. We break a move to 0.9285.

Support	0.9340	0.9300	0.9255
Resistance	0.9375	0.9405	0.9440

FX Commentary – Aussie Dollar Gained On China’s Strong PMI Reading

March 2, 2023Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar fell across the board on Wednesday, weighed down by firmer commodity currencies that benefited from China’s strong manufacturing activity data. U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth straight month in February, adding weight on the US dollar.

– China’s yuan rose after data showed Chinese manufacturing activity and non-manufacturing activities expanded at its fastest pace in a decade. The Kiwi surged 1% to $0.6248, while the Aussie rose to 0.6752.

– The euro climbed 0.8% to $1.0660, boosted by the German inflation report. German consumer prices rose more than anticipated and pushed up European Central Bank rate hike expectations after the data pointed to no let-up in stubborn cost pressures.

– Sterling traded little changed on the day at $1.2016, after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said it was possible the central bank had already come to the end of its rate-rising cycle. The Japanese yen was little changed at $136.20.

Gold prices hovered at an over one-week high on Thursday as a February rally in the U.S. dollar appeared to have run out of steam, benefiting the yellow metal. Spot Gold hovered around $1837.35 an ounce.

Chart Focus NZD/USD

Key Points

1. Buy NZD/USD recommendation.

2. Buy NZD/USD at 0.6210. Stop at 0.6180 and profit target at 0.6310.

3. A strong China PMI data and a weak U.S. manufacturing activity are aiding the Kiwi.

4. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA line with MACD hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. A strong China PMI is aiding the Kiwi.

2. A weak U.S. manufacturing activity is weighing on the US dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA line.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend.

Key Levels

Support	0.6205	0.6170	0.6130
Resistance	0.6245	0.6275	0.6310

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price reached a low of 135.22, which was just below the support at 135.35. Price is likely to test the previous high at 136.90 and a move above this point is likely to send price higher to 137.70. Stochastic is hinting at a price rally but MACD is warning of a potential price high in the making. 20EMA is hinting at a price rally. We think price is likely to move up to 137.70 in the next couple of days.

Support	136.45	135.95	135.35
Resistance	136.90	137.35	137.75

EUR/USD – Price reached a high of 1.0691 overnight and has been on a decline. 20EMA line has a support at 1.0620 and if price can stay above this line, we are likely to see another rally to the previous high at 1.0691. However, a move below this support is likely to send price lower to 1.0560 in the next couple of days. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline but both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a price rally.

Support	1.0620	1.0580	1.0535
Resistance	1.0655	1.0690	1.0735

GBP/USD – The overnight rally was capped by the falling 20EMA line at 1.2020 and we are likely to see a continuation of the decline to 1.1920 in the next 1-2 days. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline. 20EMA and MACD are both hinting at a bearish price trend. All the 3 indicators are supporting the bearish price view. A move above the 20EMA line at 1.2020 would negate our bearish view.

Support	1.1965	1.1920	1.1865
Resistance	1.2015	1.2065	1.2105

XAU/USD – Price is currently moving back towards the 20EMA line at $1828.55 after reaching a high of $1844.20 in the previous trading day. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline but both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bullish price trend. We think price should be able to stay above the 20EMA line support at $1828.30 and test the overnight high of $1844.20 in the next 48 hours. Below $1828.30 would hint at a move to $1804.50.

Support	1828.20	1818.90	1804.50
Resistance	1838.35	1847.55	1860.05

USD/CNH – Price reached a low of 6.8630 overnight and we are currently seeing a rally towards the 20EMA line at 6.9175. Price is likely to be capped by either the 20EMA line or the Fibonacci 50% correction point at $6.9260. We are likely to see a decline from this location back to 6.8630 or lower to 6.8540. Stochastic is hinting at a price rally but both 20EMA and MACD are hinting at a price decline.

Support	6.8995	6.8630	6.8415
Resistance	6.9170	6.9335	6.9610

FX Commentary – US Dollar Stayed Strong, Supported By Strong U.S. Data

February 22, 2023Nicholas

Market Talk

– The U.S. dollar held on to modest gains against its peers on Tuesday, supported by strong U.S. economic data. Renewed concerns over more hawkish moves by the Fed, especially after stronger-than-expected inflation readings for January.

– Business activity in the United States in February unexpectedly rebounded to an eight-month high, increasing to 50.2 from a final reading of 46.8 in January, according to a survey. It follows recent robust data on retail sales, the labour market and manufacturing production, suggesting solid momentum in the economy at the start of the year.

– The euro fell to $1.0648 after data showed euro zone manufacturing activity deteriorated. The British pound extended gains against the greenback to $1.2106 after data showed an unexpected bounce in British business activity, suggesting a smaller risk of recession.

– New Zealand’s central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points to a more than 14-year high of 4.75% on Wednesday. RBNZ said it expects to keep tightening further as inflation remains too high, a hawkish signal but the kiwi was muted.

– Gold prices hovered slightly above a six-week low on Wednesday with markets remaining cautious ahead of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s February meeting, after some stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data further supported the dollar.

Chart Focus GBP/USD

Key Points

1. Sell GBP/USD recommendation.

2. Sell GBP/USD at 1.2120. Stop at 1.2150 and profit target at 1.2050.

3. Strong US data and interest rate differential are both aiding the U.S. dollar.

4. Price may have reached a high and stochastic is hinting at a price decline.

Fundamental Comments

1. Stronger than expected business activity is likely to aid the U.S. dollar.

2. Interest rate differential is in the U.S. dollar favour.

Technical Comments

1. Price may have reached a high and is likely to decline lower.

2. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline.

Key Levels

Support	1.2090	1.2050	1.1990
Resistance	1.2120	1.2160	1.2210

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price only reached a low of 134.30 yesterday and our entry order at 134.10 was not filled. Overnight, price had rallied to a high of 135.22, which was higher than the previous week’s high at 135.10. There was also a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price high. 20EMA is still bullish and stochastic is also hinting at a price rally. However, we think price may have reached a peak and a decline to 133.60 is likely within the next few days.

Support	134.50	133.90	133.55
Resistance	134.90	135.25	135.95

EUR/USD – We had a buy recommendation on Monday at 1.0665 and had recommended placing stop at 1.0655 and profit order at 1.0785. Our stop was triggered as price moved below 1.0655 to a low of 1.0636. Both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bearish price trend. MACD is hinting at a rising price trend. We think price is likely to move sideways with technical indicators mixed at the moment.

Support	1.0610	1.0570	1.0540
Resistance	1.0665	1.0705	1.0755

USD/CAD – Price reached a high of 1.3548 overnight but this high was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price high. However, both 20EMA and stochastic are hinting at a price rally. If price fails to move above the overnight high at 1.3548, we are likely to see a decline back to 1.3435 in the next 48 hours. Above 1.3548, the upside could also be limited with stochastic hinting at a limited upside.

Support	1.3515	1.3485	1.3435
Resistance	1.3545	1.3590	1.3620

XAU/USD – Price reached a low of $1818.85 last Friday and this could be a temporary low. MACD has also given a divergence warning of a possible price low. Stochastic and 20EMA are currently hinting at a price decline but price has moved sideways in the past 24 hours. We may see a continuation of this movement in the next 24 hours. Watch the price move at $1846 or $1818 and follow in the direction of the break.

Support	1836.60	1818.70	1803.70
Resistance	1847.35	1860.05	1871.95

NZD/USD – Price has reached a low of 0.0.6193 on Friday. There was a rally to 0.6260 but the rally was been halted by the declining 20EMA line. Price failed to move above this resistance and had declined to an overnight low of 0.6202. This could be a base building and we see price moving higher in the next 48 hours to 0.6310. Stochastic and MACD are both supporting this bullish view but 20EMA is hinting at a price decline.

Support	0.6225	0.6190	0.6155
Resistance	0.6260	0.6295	0.6325

FX Commentary – Market Is Waiting For FOMC Minutes For Clues

February 21, 2023Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar was parked below recent peaks on Tuesday, as a three-week rally faded with investors looking to the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting for further monetary policy clues. Trading activity was muted with the US closed due to President’s Day holiday.

– The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 3.5 basis points to 3.863%, after touching a three-month high of 3.929% on Friday. The yen weakened 0.12% to 134.40 per dollar. The Aussie was hovering at $0.6896, having risen 0.5% overnight to as high as $0.6920 helped by big gains in China’s stock markets on reopening hopes.

– The kiwi dollar was off 0.2% at $0.6241, after climbing 0.2% overnight ahead of a central bank meeting on Wednesday. Markets are pricing a 50 basis points hike to bring New Zealand’s benchmark interest rate to 4.75%.

– The euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.0669, just above Friday’s six-week low of $1.0612 supported by European Central Bank policymakers’ hawkish remarks. Sterling was steady at $1.2024.

– Gold prices were pinned just above six-week lows on Tuesday, with traders holding off big bets in anticipation of more cues on monetary policy from the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s February meeting. Spot gold was flat at $1,841.59 an ounce in Tuesday morning Asian trading.

Chart Focus USD/JPY

Key Points

1. Buy USD/JPY recommendation.

2. Buy USD/JPY at 134.10. Stop at 133.80 and profit target at 135.10.

3. Expectations of the Fed on a monetary policy tightening path for longer than initially expected and interest rate differential are aiding the U.S. dollar.

4. Price is supported by the 20EMA with stochastic indicator hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. Interest rate differential is in the U.S. dollar favour.

2. Investors’ expectations of the Fed on a monetary policy tightening path for longer than initially expected are aiding the U.S. dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price is supported by the 20EMA which is also hinting at a bullish price trend.

2. Stochastic has a bullish crossover and is hinting at a bullish price trend.

Key Levels

Support	134.30	133.90	133.55
Resistance	134.65	135.10	135.60

Technical Overview

USD/CHF – Price reached a high of 0.9331 last Friday and has declined below to the 20EMA support area at 0.9245 on Tuesday morning. If price stays below 0.9250, we are likely to see a decline to 0.9160 in the next 24 hours. However, both stochastic and MACD are hinting at a price rally ahead. If price can move above 0.9245, we could see a test of the previous high at 0.9330. We prefer the rally to 0.9330.

Support	0.9210	0.9180	0.9135
Resistance	0.9250	0.9290	0.9330

EUR/USD – We had a buy recommendation yesterday at 1.0865, which was filled when price reached a low of 1.0667 this morning. Stochastic, 20EMA, and MACD are all hinting at a price decline in the near future. There is a possibility our call could be taken out today. We would recommend keeping stop at 1.0655 and profit order at 1.0785. A move below 1.0655 would hint at a decline to 1.0610.

Support	1.0650	1.0610	1.0570
Resistance	1.0685	1.0720	1.0765

GBP/USD – Price reached a low of 1.1914 last Friday but this low was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price low. Price has since rallied and had reached a high of 1.2045 on Monday morning. A U.S. holiday had kept overnight range tight. Price will need to move above 1.2045 to continue the rally, else it risk a decline back to 1.1910 again.

Support	1.2010	1.1960	1.1915
Resistance	1.2045	1.2075	1.2145

XAU/USD – Price reached a low of $1818.85 last Friday and this could be a temporary low. MACD has also given a divergence warning of a possible price low. Stochastic and 20EMA are currently hinting at a price decline ahead. If price stays below the resistance at $1847, we could see a decline in price back to test the previous low at $1818 in the next 24 hours. A move above $1847 would hint at a rally to $1865.

Support	1836.60	1818.70	1803.70
Resistance	1847.35	1860.05	1871.95

NZD/USD – Price has reached a low of 0.0.6193 on Friday. There was a rally to 0.6260 but the rally was been halted by the declining 20EMA line. If price fails to move above this high, we are likely to see a decline back to 0.6193 again in the next 24 hours. MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a price decline. However, stochastic indicator is hinting at a price rally. We prefer to see a decline to 0.6193.

Support	0.6225	0.6190	0.6155
Resistance	0.6260	0.6295	0.6325