Tag: NZD/USD

FX Commentary – Safe Havens Rose On Worries Of A Slower Global Economy

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The safe-haven U.S. dollar and yen rose on Tuesday as market sentiment turned risk-averse amid renewed worries about the U.S. banking sector and the outlook for the global economy, which knocked the euro off a nearly 10-month high.

– U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 101.3 – the lowest since July 2022 – from a revised 104.0 in March. The U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index was down at -10 in April, the fourth straight month of contraction. Both surveys negated strong U.S. housing data which beat estimates with a 9.6% rise in March to a one-year high of 683,000 after net revisions.

– The yen firmed 0.6% to 133.49 per dollar even as the BOJ’s new governor Kazuo Ueda signaled he was in no hurry to change monetary policy. The euro declined to $1.0969, having risen 1.2% so far in April. Sterling was down 0.6% at $1.2403, but was close to a 10-month high of $1.2545 reached earlier this month.

– The Australian dollar took a further knock on Wednesday, declining to $0.6614, the weakest level since mid-March after a downward surprise in core inflation lessened the pressure for another hike in interest rates next month.

– Gold prices rose to key levels on Wednesday, buoyed by safe haven demand as a string of weak U.S. company earnings and economic data fueled fears of a potential recession this year. Resurgent fears of a banking crisis also boosted safe haven demand


Chart Focus GBP/USD

Key Points

1. Sell GBP/USD recommendation.

2. Sell GBP/USD at 1.2435. Stop at 1.2470 and profit target at 1.2350

3. In increase in risk sentiment and interest rate differential are both in the US dollar favour.

4. Price is likely to be capped by the 20EMA and stochastic is hinting at a price decline.

Fundamental Comments

1. As market sentiment turned risk-averse, the US dollar is likely to be in demand.

2. Interest rate differential is in the US dollar favour.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be capped by the 20EMA which is also hinting at a bearish price trend.

2. Stochastic is moving lower and hinting at a continuation of the downtrend.



Key Levels

Support1.23851.23401.2275
Resistance1.24401.25051.2545









Technical Overview
USD/JPY – Price has moved below the previous week low and could be on its way to 133.10 in a bigger correction move. This is also the Fibonacci ABC formation price target as well. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline. Both MACD and 20EMA are also hinting at a price decline. Only a price move above 134.50 would negate this bearish price view over the next couple of days ahead.

Support133.35132.80132.50
Resistance133.90134.35134.95

EUR/USD – We had a buy recommendation yesterday at 1.0995, which was filled when price declined to a low of 1.0963. The low was just above our stop at 1.0960. Our view may be wrong with market turning to safe haven. We would recommend keeping stop at 1.0960 and profit target at 1.1075. Stochastic is still moving lower but MACD is hinting at a possible price rally. 20EMA is hinting at a price decline.

Support1.09451.09101.0875
Resistance1.09951.10351.1075

AUD/USD – Price reached a low of 0.6601 this morning. There was no divergence warning from the MACD indicator. It means price can continue to move lower to the next support level at 0.6560. Stochastic is hinting at a continuation of this current decline. 20EMA is hinting at a bearish price trend. We think price will move lower. Only a price move above 0.6670 will negate this bearish price move.

Support0.65800.65400.6515
Resistance0.66200.66650.6715

XAU/USD – A move towards safe haven has help to halt a decline in gold at $1975.95. We are likely to see price moves higher to test the important resistance at $2012.35. If price failed to move above this resistance, there could be another decline to $1969 but a move above will hint at price rally to $2048.45. Stochastic and 20EMA are both hinting at a price rally but MACD is hinting at a price decline.1971.

Support1992.851983.351971.40
Resistance2003.702012.352022.40

NZD/USD – Price has failed to move higher to test 0.6225 we had envisioned yesterday. Instead, price is near to the low of 0.6125 despite the divergence warning given by the MACD indictor. Stochastic is hinting at a continuation of this price decline. Both MACD and 20EMA are also hinting at a bearish price trend ahead. A break of 0.6125 is likely to send price down to 0.6080 in the next 24 hours.

Support0.61250.60800.6050
Resistance0.61850.62250.6265

FX Commentary – Jitters in Bank Arouse Talk Of A Fed Pause

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar was on the back foot while the euro climbed on Tuesday, as regional bank jitters in the U.S. had traders expecting U.S. interest rate cuts before long. However, in Europe a 50 basis point hike remains a live option at next week’s central bank meeting.

– News overnight of plunging deposits at First Republic Bank in the U.S. served as a reminder that stability risks have not entirely died down and prompted traders to renew expectations that the Fed shifts quickly from hiking to cutting. Interest rate futures market has also factored in roughly 50 bps of rate cuts by the end of the year

– The euro rose above $1.10 overnight and was still going at $1.1062 early in the Asia session. European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel told Politico that a 50 bp rate hike was not off the table and would depend on data – notably inflation figures due two days before May’s meeting.

– The Japanese currency struggled amid remarks from new Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda, that  he was not in a hurry to shift policy. The greenback rose versus the Japanese currency, and was last 134.27 yen. This week’s BOJ meeting, which concludes on Friday, is his first in charge.

– Gold prices rose 0.3% to $1,995.57 an ounce, on Tuesday, extending a recovery into a third straight session as the greenback fell amid bets that the Federal Reserve could pause its rate hike cycle by as soon as June. Worsening economic conditions, which increase the safe haven appeal of the yellow metal, also aided the yellow metal.

Chart Focus EUR/USD

Key Points

1. Buy EUR/USD recommendation.

2. Buy EUR/USD at 1.0995. Stop at 1.0960 and profit target at 1.1075

3. A potential 50 basis point hike and divergent monetary policy is aiding the Euro dollar.

4. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA with MACD hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. A potential 50 basis point hike in Euro interest rate is aiding the Euro dollar.

2. Divergent monetary policy between the Euro and US is aiding the Euro dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA which is also hinting at a bullish price trend.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend.



Key Levels

Support1.10401.10001.0965
Resistance1.10751.11001.1135










Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price has been moving in a 100 pips range for the past 48 hours and looks like it would stay range bound for the next 24 hours. Stochastic is in the middle of its range and both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a sideways range trading scenario. We think price may have reached a top at 135.13 last week. We see price going down to 133.10 in a correction over the next few days.

Support134.10133.55133.15
Resistance134.70135.15135.55

USD/CAD – Price has reached a high of 1.3566 which was also a previous high from 2 weeks ago. Price will need to move above this high to test another important high at 1.3700. Stochastic remains near to the overbought zone and is hinting at a limited upside. However, 20EMA is hinting at a strong bullish price trend. MACD is also hinting at a bullish price trend. We see price moving higher unless price moves below 1.3445.

Support1.35101.34701.3445
Resistance1.35651.36201.3650

GBP/USD – Price reached a high of 1.2506 this morning and we may see a correction lower to 1.2450 in the next 24 hours. Stochastic has reached the overbought zone and is hinting at a possible price decline. MACD is hinting at a mild bullish trend. Only 20EMA is hinting at a strong bullish price trend. We see price going lower to 1.2350 in the next couple of days.

Support1.24601.24101.2375
Resistance1.25051.25551.2600

XAU/USD – We think price has reached a low of $1969.13 last week and we are likely to see a bounce back up to $2012.35 in the next couple of days. If price failed to move above $2018, there could be another decline to $1969 but a move above will hint at $2048.45. Stochastic is rising and is hinting at a price rally. MACD has turned bullish and is hinting at a price rally as well. 20EMA is neutral at the moment.

Support1988.651969.151959.95
Resistance2000.802018.152031.70

NZD/USD – Price has reached a low of 0.6125 on Monday but this low was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price low in place. Stochastic is moving higher and is hinting at a price rally. 20EMA has turned bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend. We see price testing its previous high of 0.6225 in the next 48 hours. A price move below 0.6125 would negate our bullish view.

Support0.61250.60800.6050
Resistance0.61850.62250.6265

FX Commentary – US Dollar Held Gains On Expectation Of Tight Monetary Policy.

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar held gains on Thursday after strong U.S. banking results firmed up expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep monetary policy tight for a while longer while the New Zealand’s dollar slumped after cooler than expected inflation data.

– The Japanese yen weakened for a second day, losing 0.1% to at 134.85, after the yield on two-year Treasury notes rose 7 basis points to 4.269%, after hitting a one-month high of 4.286%. The greenback had briefly poked above 135 for the first time in a month in Wednesday’s trading.

– Sterling was last trading at $1.2440, up 0.13% on the day after hotter-than-expected UK inflation cemented expectations for more rate hikes by the Bank of England.

– New Zealand’s consumer price index for the first quarter came in below expectations on Thursday, but remained near historic highs. The kiwi slid 0.7% to $0.6154 after touching the weakest level since March 16.

– Gold prices traded below key levels on Thursday, coming under pressure from resurgence in the dollar and mounting expectations that major central banks across the globe will keep raising interest rates in the near-term.


Chart Focus USD/CHF

Key Points

1. Buy USD/CHF recommendation.

2. Buy USD/CHF at 0.8925. Stop at 0.8895 and profit target at 0.9050

3. Expectations of another 25bp Fed hike and an increase in US Treasury yields are both likely to aid the U.S. dollar.

4. Price is likely to be supported by the Fibonacci 50% correction point with MACD hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. An increase in US Treasury yields is likely to aid the U.S. dollar.

2. Expectations of another interest rate hike by the Fed is likely to aid the U.S. dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be supported by the Fibonacci 50% correction point.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend.



Key Levels

Support0.89350.88950.8855
Resistance0.89750.90050.9045










Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price reached a high of 135.13 on Wednesday but this high was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price high. Stochastic is also hinting at a price decline ahead but 20EMA is hinting at a strong bullish price trend. We think price may have reached a high at 135.13 and we see a decline back to 133.80 in the next few days.

Support134.30133.95133.35
Resistance134.75135.15135.80

EUR/USD – Price has tested the support at 1.0905 on 2 occasions and both times, this support has managed to hold. We are likely to test a test of the top side at 1.1075. Stochastic is hinting at a price rally ahead. MACD and 20EMA are neutral at the moment. We think price is likely to move higher to 1.1020 in the next 48 hours as long as price can hold above 1.0945.

Support1.09401.09051.0865
Resistance1.09851.10201.1075

GBP/USD – Price has managed to hold around the 20EMA support level and if this support holds, price is likely to test the topside of 1.25 again in the next 48 hours. Stochastic is rising and is hinting at a bullish price trend. MACD is about to turn bullish while 20EMA is neutral at the moment. We favour the topside test but a move below 1.2390 would negate our bullish price view for the next 48 hours.

Support1.24051.23551.2305
Resistance1.24551.25051.2545

XAU/USD – Price only reached a high of $1998.50 overnight, missing our sell entry price at $1999. If price is capped by the 20EMA at $2000, we are likely to see another decline to $1965. If price can move above the $2000 level, we are likely to see a test back to $2022 in the next few days. MACD has a divergence and is hinting at a price rally. Stochastic is also hinting at a price rally but 20EMA is hinting at a price decline. We favour the upside test.

Support1980.951966.001949.65
Resistance1998.852011.702022.65

NZD/USD – Price reached a low this morning at 0.6148 but this low was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price low. Stochastic is hinting at continuation of this price decline. 20EMA is also hinting at a bearish price trend. We think price may have reached a low and we see a rally back to the previous high at 0.6225 in the next few days.

Support0.61450.60950.6060
Resistance0.61850.62250.6260

FX Commentary – U.S. Dollar Tumbled On Imminent End To Rate-Hike Cycle

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar tumbled to a one-year low against a basket of currencies on Friday while the euro hit a one-year peak, as traders ramped up expectations of an imminent end to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate-hike cycle on signs of cooling inflation.

– Data from the U.S. Labour Department on Thursday showed the producer price index (PPI) fell by the most in nearly three years last month, coming a day after inflation data pointed to moderation in consumer prices, reinforcing the view of end to interest rate hikes.

– The euro rose to a fresh one-year top of $1.1075, pushing past its previous high from Thursday. The British pound was similarly perched near a 10-month high and last at 1.2526. The Japanese yen rose marginally to 132.44 per dollar

– An unexpected surge in Chinese exports, kept the Australian dollar supported at around $0.6788 on Friday, after having surged 1.3% in the previous session. The New Zealand dollar similarly gained 0.13% to $0.6305 in Asia trade, after jumping 1.3% on Thursday.

– Gold was up at $2,044 an ounce after striking a one-year peak of $2,048.71 overnight, not far from its all-time top of $2,072. Signs of cooling inflation and worries about a possible recession are aiding the yellow metal.


Chart Focus XAU/USD – Gold

Key Points

1. Trading Sell Gold recommendation

2. Sell Gold at $2045. Stop at $2048.45 and profit target at $2020.50

3. Expectations of an imminent end to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate-hike cycle on signs of cooling inflation is aiding Gold

4. A price pattern and a divergence in MACD are both hinting at a possible price high.

Fundamental Comments

1. Expectations of an imminent end to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate-hike cycle is aiding Gold

2. A sharp drop in US PPI is reinforcing the view of end to interest rate hikes.

Technical Comments

1. A Hanging Man candlestick price pattern is hinting at a possible high in price.

2. A divergence warning from the MACD indicator is hinting at a possible price high.










Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price had reached a high on Tuesday but has tumbled down to 132.01 overnight. Stochastic is near to the low and is hinting at a possible price rally. MACD and 20EMA remain bearish and are both hinting at a bearish price trend ahead. MACD had earlier warning of a possible price high with divergence, hinting at a possible price high. We think price is likely to move lower to 131.00 in the next few days.

Support132.00131.50131.00
Resistance132.65133.15133.75

EUR/USD – Price reached a fresh 12-month high at 1.1075 overnight but there was no divergence warning. This is a hint that price can continue to move higher. Both MACD and 20EMA are also hinting at a continuation of this rally. Stochastic is deep in the overbought zone. We think price can continue to move higher to 1.1185 in the next few days. A price move below 1.0975 would negate our bullish view.

Support1.10401.09951.0935
Resistance1.10751.11051.1155

GBP/USD – Price reached a fresh 10-month high at 1.2546 this morning and looks like it can continue to move higher. However, a possible divergence could be forming on the MACD indicator, warning of a possible price high in the marking. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and is hinting at a limited upside. 20EMA remains bullish. We think the upside could be limited and a correction to 1.2485 is likely before the uptrend resumes again.

Support1.24801.24101.2345
Resistance1.25551.25951.2660

XAG/USD – Price reached a high of $25.65 overnight but this high was accompanied by a bearish divergence warning from the MACD indicator, warning of a possible price high in the making. Stochastic is also hinting at a price decline but 20EMA is hinting at a strong bullish price trend. As long as price can stays above $25.10, we are likely to see a rally to $26.15 but a move below $25.10, it is a hint of a price high and a decline to $24.20.

Support25.0524.7024.20
Resistance25.6525.9026.20

NZD/USD – Price reached a high of 0.6314 this morning and the rally looks like it will continue higher to 0.6375 in the next few days. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and is hinting at a limited upside. However, both MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a strong bullish price trend. We think there could be a small price correction to 0.6260 in the next 24 hours before the rally resumes for 0.6314 in a few days’ time.

Support0.62800.61350.6085
Resistance0.63150.63500.6375

FX Commentary – U.S. Dollar Dipped Ahead of Inflation Data

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar dipped on Wednesday against major currencies as investors waited on inflation data later in the global day for further signs of whether price pressures are ebbing and what it means for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

– The euro was last 0.12% higher at $1.0926 boosted by a rise in European bond yields on Tuesday. Sterling rose 0.02% to $1.2430, with both currencies some distance away from their one-week lows hit on Monday.

– Against the yen, the dollar rose to a nearly one-month high of 134.04, a reflection of the stark contrast between the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle and the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy.

– The Australian and New Zealand dollars were mostly steady on Wednesday. The Aussie edged 0.2% higher to $0.6664 while the kiwi dollar was up 0.1% at $0.6198, having dropped 0.4% to as far as $0.6185 overnight, a three-week low.

– Gold jumped 0.5% to $2,013.33 an ounce on Wednesday, boosted by safe haven buying after Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari flagged a potential recession this year, with focus also turning to more U.S. economic cues due later in the day.

Chart Focus AUD/USD

Key Points

1. Buy AUD/USD recommendation.

2. Buy AUD/USD at 0.6650. Stop at 0.6620 and profit target at 0.6725

3. Dovish Fed comments and an agreement with China to resolve dispute over barley imports have helped to improve sentiment for the Aussie dollar.

4. Price may have reached a temporary bottom with stochastic and MACD warning of a potential price low and a price rally ahead.

Fundamental Comments

1. Overnight dovish Fed officials’ comments are weighing on the US dollar

2. An agreement with China to resolve dispute over barley imports has helped to improve sentiment for the Aussie dollar,

Technical Comments

1. Price may have reached a temporary bottom with a technical bounce likely.

2. Stochastic and MACD are warning of a potential price low and a price rally ahead.



Key Levels

Support0.66500.66150.6585
Resistance0.66850.67250.6760










Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Yesterday, we had recommended buying at 133.00, which was filled when price declined to a low of 132.96. Overnight, price has moved up to a high of 134.03. We are expecting the rally to continue higher to 134.60 in the next 24 hours. Stochastic is in the overbought zone, hinting at a limited upside. Both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bullish price trend. We would recommend lifting stop to cost while keeping profit target at 134.60.

Support133.70133.15132.70
Resistance134.40134.85135.15

EUR/USD – Price was capped by a previous high resistance at 10935 this morning and we may see a tight range ahead of CPI data later tonight. The next direction is likely to be set by the CPI data tonight. Stochastic is supporting a price decline while 20EMA is hinting at a price rally. MACD is neural at the moment. If price can move above 1.0935, we could see a test of 1.1035. Failure to move above 1.0935 could send price lower to 1.0830.

Support1.08951.08301.0785
Resistance1.09351.09751.1035

GBP/USD – Price reached a low of 1.2343 on Monday and we have seen a recovery to 1.2455. We are likely to see a tight range ahead of CPI data. Both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a sideways range while stochastic is hinting at price decline. We think the US data tonight is likely to determine the next directional move. If price is capped at 1.2450, we are likely to see a decline back to 1.2345. However, if price can move above 1.2450 we are likely to see a rally to test the previous high at 1.2525.

Support1.24001.23401.2275
Resistance1.24551.25251.2595

XAU/USD – We have seen a price rally from Monday’s low of $1981.58 to a high of $2021.15 this morning. This high is also a previous price high. Stochastic is hinting at a continuation of this price rally. 20EMA is supporting stochastic view while MACD is neutral at the moment. We think price may have reached a correction high and a decline back to $1981 is likely. A move above $2021 would hint at a rally towards $2074.

Support2006.901987.551976.80
Resistance2021.152031.852049.60

NZD/USD – After reaching a low of 0.6167 this morning, we saw a rally towards the 20EMA line, but this rally failed to move above the 20EMA line. We are likely to see a price decline below this morning low of 0.6167 to 0.6135 in the next 24 hours to establish a low. Stochastic is hinting at a possible price low. However both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bearish price trend.

Support0.61700.61350.6085
Resistance0.62050.62500.6305