Tag: NZD/USD

FX Commentary – Aussie Dollar Gained On China’s Strong PMI Reading

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar fell across the board on Wednesday, weighed down by firmer commodity currencies that benefited from China’s strong manufacturing activity data. U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth straight month in February, adding weight on the US dollar.

– China’s yuan rose after data showed Chinese manufacturing activity and non-manufacturing activities expanded at its fastest pace in a decade. The Kiwi surged 1% to $0.6248, while the Aussie rose to 0.6752.

– The euro climbed 0.8% to $1.0660, boosted by the German inflation report. German consumer prices rose more than anticipated and pushed up European Central Bank rate hike expectations after the data pointed to no let-up in stubborn cost pressures.

– Sterling traded little changed on the day at $1.2016, after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said it was possible the central bank had already come to the end of its rate-rising cycle. The Japanese yen was little changed at $136.20.

Gold prices hovered at an over one-week high on Thursday as a February rally in the U.S. dollar appeared to have run out of steam, benefiting the yellow metal. Spot Gold hovered around $1837.35 an ounce.

Chart Focus NZD/USD

Key Points

1. Buy NZD/USD recommendation.

2. Buy NZD/USD at 0.6210. Stop at 0.6180 and profit target at 0.6310.

3. A strong China PMI data and a weak U.S. manufacturing activity are aiding the Kiwi.

4. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA line with MACD hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. A strong China PMI is aiding the Kiwi.

2. A weak U.S. manufacturing activity is weighing on the US dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA line.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend.



Key Levels

Support0.62050.61700.6130
Resistance0.62450.62750.6310










Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price reached a low of 135.22, which was just below the support at 135.35. Price is likely to test the previous high at 136.90 and a move above this point is likely to send price higher to 137.70. Stochastic is hinting at a price rally but MACD is warning of a potential price high in the making. 20EMA is hinting at a price rally. We think price is likely to move up to 137.70 in the next couple of days.

Support136.45135.95135.35
Resistance136.90137.35137.75

EUR/USD – Price reached a high of 1.0691 overnight and has been on a decline. 20EMA line has a support at 1.0620 and if price can stay above this line, we are likely to see another rally to the previous high at 1.0691. However, a move below this support is likely to send price lower to 1.0560 in the next couple of days. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline but both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a price rally.

Support1.06201.05801.0535
Resistance1.06551.06901.0735

GBP/USD – The overnight rally was capped by the falling 20EMA line at 1.2020 and we are likely to see a continuation of the decline to 1.1920 in the next 1-2 days. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline. 20EMA and MACD are both hinting at a bearish price trend. All the 3 indicators are supporting the bearish price view. A move above the 20EMA line at 1.2020 would negate our bearish view.

Support1.19651.19201.1865
Resistance1.20151.20651.2105

XAU/USD – Price is currently moving back towards the 20EMA line at $1828.55 after reaching a high of $1844.20 in the previous trading day. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline but both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bullish price trend. We think price should be able to stay above the 20EMA line support at $1828.30 and test the overnight high of $1844.20 in the next 48 hours. Below $1828.30 would hint at a move to $1804.50.

Support1828.201818.901804.50
Resistance1838.351847.551860.05

USD/CNH – Price reached a low of 6.8630 overnight and we are currently seeing a rally towards the 20EMA line at 6.9175. Price is likely to be capped by either the 20EMA line or the Fibonacci 50% correction point at $6.9260. We are likely to see a decline from this location back to 6.8630 or lower to 6.8540. Stochastic is hinting at a price rally but both 20EMA and MACD are hinting at a price decline.

Support6.89956.86306.8415
Resistance6.91706.93356.9610

FX Commentary – US Dollar Stayed Strong, Supported By Strong U.S. Data

Nicholas

Market Talk

– The U.S. dollar held on to modest gains against its peers on Tuesday, supported by strong U.S. economic data. Renewed concerns over more hawkish moves by the Fed, especially after stronger-than-expected inflation readings for January.

– Business activity in the United States in February unexpectedly rebounded to an eight-month high, increasing to 50.2 from a final reading of 46.8 in January, according to a survey. It follows recent robust data on retail sales, the labour market and manufacturing production, suggesting solid momentum in the economy at the start of the year.

– The euro fell to $1.0648 after data showed euro zone manufacturing activity deteriorated. The British pound extended gains against the greenback to $1.2106 after data showed an unexpected bounce in British business activity, suggesting a smaller risk of recession.

– New Zealand’s central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points to a more than 14-year high of 4.75% on Wednesday. RBNZ said it expects to keep tightening further as inflation remains too high, a hawkish signal but the kiwi was muted.

– Gold prices hovered slightly above a six-week low on Wednesday with markets remaining cautious ahead of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s February meeting, after some stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data further supported the dollar.


Chart Focus GBP/USD

Key Points

1. Sell GBP/USD recommendation.

2. Sell GBP/USD at 1.2120. Stop at 1.2150 and profit target at 1.2050.

3. Strong US data and interest rate differential are both aiding the U.S. dollar.

4. Price may have reached a high and stochastic is hinting at a price decline.

Fundamental Comments

1. Stronger than expected business activity is likely to aid the U.S. dollar.

2. Interest rate differential is in the U.S. dollar favour.

Technical Comments

1. Price may have reached a high and is likely to decline lower.

2. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline.



Key Levels

Support1.20901.20501.1990
Resistance1.21201.21601.2210








Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price only reached a low of 134.30 yesterday and our entry order at 134.10 was not filled. Overnight, price had rallied to a high of 135.22, which was higher than the previous week’s high at 135.10. There was also a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price high. 20EMA is still bullish and stochastic is also hinting at a price rally. However, we think price may have reached a peak and a decline to 133.60 is likely within the next few days.

Support134.50133.90133.55
Resistance134.90135.25135.95

EUR/USD – We had a buy recommendation on Monday at 1.0665 and had recommended placing stop at 1.0655 and profit order at 1.0785. Our stop was triggered as price moved below 1.0655 to a low of 1.0636. Both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bearish price trend. MACD is hinting at a rising price trend. We think price is likely to move sideways with technical indicators mixed at the moment.

Support1.06101.05701.0540
Resistance1.06651.07051.0755

USD/CAD – Price reached a high of 1.3548 overnight but this high was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price high. However, both 20EMA and stochastic are hinting at a price rally. If price fails to move above the overnight high at 1.3548, we are likely to see a decline back to 1.3435 in the next 48 hours. Above 1.3548, the upside could also be limited with stochastic hinting at a limited upside.

Support1.35151.34851.3435
Resistance1.35451.35901.3620

XAU/USD – Price reached a low of $1818.85 last Friday and this could be a temporary low. MACD has also given a divergence warning of a possible price low. Stochastic and 20EMA are currently hinting at a price decline but price has moved sideways in the past 24 hours.  We may see a continuation of this movement in the next 24 hours. Watch the price move at $1846 or $1818 and follow in the direction of the break.

Support1836.601818.701803.70
Resistance1847.351860.051871.95

NZD/USD – Price has reached a low of 0.0.6193 on Friday. There was a rally to 0.6260 but the rally was been halted by the declining 20EMA line. Price failed to move above this resistance and had declined to an overnight low of 0.6202. This could be a base building and we see price moving higher in the next 48 hours to 0.6310. Stochastic and MACD are both supporting this bullish view but 20EMA is hinting at a price decline.

Support0.62250.61900.6155
Resistance0.62600.62950.6325

FX Commentary – Market Is Waiting For FOMC Minutes For Clues

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar was parked below recent peaks on Tuesday, as a three-week rally faded with investors looking to the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting for further monetary policy clues. Trading activity was muted with the US closed due to President’s Day holiday.

– The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 3.5 basis points to 3.863%, after touching a three-month high of 3.929% on Friday. The yen weakened 0.12% to 134.40 per dollar. The Aussie was hovering at $0.6896, having risen 0.5% overnight to as high as $0.6920 helped by big gains in China’s stock markets on reopening hopes.

– The kiwi dollar was off 0.2% at $0.6241, after climbing 0.2% overnight ahead of a central bank meeting on Wednesday. Markets are pricing a 50 basis points hike to bring New Zealand’s benchmark interest rate to 4.75%.

– The euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.0669, just above Friday’s six-week low of $1.0612 supported by European Central Bank policymakers’ hawkish remarks. Sterling was steady at $1.2024.

– Gold prices were pinned just above six-week lows on Tuesday, with traders holding off big bets in anticipation of more cues on monetary policy from the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s February meeting. Spot gold was flat at $1,841.59 an ounce in Tuesday morning Asian trading.


Chart Focus USD/JPY

Key Points

1. Buy USD/JPY recommendation.

2. Buy USD/JPY at 134.10. Stop at 133.80 and profit target at 135.10.

3. Expectations of the Fed on a monetary policy tightening path for longer than initially expected and interest rate differential are aiding the U.S. dollar.

4. Price is supported by the 20EMA with stochastic indicator hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. Interest rate differential is in the U.S. dollar favour.

2. Investors’ expectations of the Fed on a monetary policy tightening path for longer than initially expected are aiding the U.S. dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price is supported by the 20EMA which is also hinting at a bullish price trend.

2. Stochastic has a bullish crossover and is hinting at a bullish price trend.



Key Levels

Support134.30133.90133.55
Resistance134.65135.10135.60










Technical Overview

USD/CHF – Price reached a high of 0.9331 last Friday and has declined below to the 20EMA support area at 0.9245 on Tuesday morning. If price stays below 0.9250, we are likely to see a decline to 0.9160 in the next 24 hours. However, both stochastic and MACD are hinting at a price rally ahead. If price can move above 0.9245, we could see a test of the previous high at 0.9330. We prefer the rally to 0.9330.

Support0.92100.91800.9135
Resistance0.92500.92900.9330

EUR/USD – We had a buy recommendation yesterday at 1.0865, which was filled when price reached a low of 1.0667 this morning. Stochastic, 20EMA, and MACD are all hinting at a price decline in the near future. There is a possibility our call could be taken out today. We would recommend keeping stop at 1.0655 and profit order at 1.0785. A move below 1.0655 would hint at a decline to 1.0610.

Support1.06501.06101.0570
Resistance1.06851.07201.0765

GBP/USD – Price reached a low of 1.1914 last Friday but this low was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price low.  Price has since rallied and had reached a high of 1.2045 on Monday morning. A U.S. holiday had kept overnight range tight. Price will need to move above 1.2045 to continue the rally, else it risk a decline back to 1.1910 again.

Support1.20101.19601.1915
Resistance1.20451.20751.2145

XAU/USD – Price reached a low of $1818.85 last Friday and this could be a temporary low. MACD has also given a divergence warning of a possible price low. Stochastic and 20EMA are currently hinting at a price decline ahead. If price stays below the resistance at $1847, we could see a decline in price back to test the previous low at $1818 in the next 24 hours. A move above $1847 would hint at a rally to $1865.

Support1836.601818.701803.70
Resistance1847.351860.051871.95

NZD/USD – Price has reached a low of 0.0.6193 on Friday. There was a rally to 0.6260 but the rally was been halted by the declining 20EMA line. If price fails to move above this high, we are likely to see a decline back to 0.6193 again in the next 24 hours. MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a price decline. However, stochastic indicator is hinting at a price rally. We prefer to see a decline to 0.6193.

Support0.62250.61900.6155
Resistance0.62600.62950.6325

FX Commentary – U.S. Dollar Rallied On Strong Overnight U.S. Retail Sales Data

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar advanced on Thursday after strong U.S. retail sales data, underpinned the resilience of the world’s largest economy, cementing the case that the Federal Reserve still has further to go in tightening rates.

– The Australian dollar slid after data on Thursday showed that employment surprised in January by falling for a second straight month, while the jobless rate jumped to its highest since last May. The Aussie dollar hit an intraday low of $0.6868 in the aftermath, and last bought $0.6872.

– Sterling fell to $1.2015, after sliding more than 1% in the previous session after British inflation slowed more than expected in January. There were signs of cooling price pressure in parts of the economy watched closely by the Bank of England, data released on Wednesday showed.

– The euro was little changed at $1.0687, while the yen rose marginally to 134.07 per dollar, The Japanese yen found support after the nomination of Kazuo Ueda as the next central bank governor raised market hopes that the 71-year-old could end super-low interest rates in Japan sooner than initially expected.

– Gold prices fell on Wednesday to their lowest levels in more than a month after data on U.S. consumer prices showed inflation accelerated in January, flaring concerns of a tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy this year. Gold was at $1,835.00 per ounce in Asian morning trading.


Chart Focus GBP/USD

Key Points

1. Sell GBP/USD recommendation.

2. Sell GBP/USD at 1.2075. Stop at 1.2110 and profit target at 1.1965

3. Divergent in data are hinting at an increase in interest rate differential favouring the U.S. dollar.

4. Price is likely to be capped by the 20EMA line with MACD hinting at a bearish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. A slower British inflation data is hinting at a slower place of rate hike.

2. A strong US retail sales data is hinting at more rate hikes from the Fed.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be capped by the declining 20EMA line, which is hinting at a bearish price trend.

2. MACD remains bearish and is hinting at a bearish price trend.



Key Levels

Support1.20101.19601.1910
Resistance1.20551.21051.2165










Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price moved above 133.00 yesterday, hinting that this break above is likely to send price higher to 134.75. Price is currently close to 134.00 and we think the overnight rally is likely to continue today towards 134.75. Stochastic indicator, MACD and 20EMA are all hinting at a price rally ahead which confirms with our bullish view. Only a move below 132.85 would negate our bullish view.

Support133.60133.10132.55
Resistance134.35134.75135.20

EUR/USD – We had a sell recommendation at 1.0730 yesterday which was filled when price reached a high of 1.0732. Price had declined lower to 1.0660, missing our profit order at 1.0655. Currently price is capped by the 20EMA at 1.0715. Above this resistance, our bearish view will be negated. We remain bearish on the euro and would recommend lowering stop to 1.0720 while keeping profit order at 1.0655.

Support1.06851.06551.0595
Resistance1.07151.07551.0790

USD/CHF – Price reached a high of 0.9262 overnight which was slightly higher than Monday’s high of 0.9259. There is a possible of a Double Top chart formation if price were to drop below 0.9155. Price is currently supported by the 20EMA line at 0.9215 and as long as price stays above this support, we are likely to see another rally that could bring price above 0.9261 in the next 48 hours. Below 0.9215 would hint at 0.9055.

Support0.92150.91800.9135
Resistance0.92600.92900.9360

XAU/USD – Our view remains the same as yesterday, where we are looking for a decline to $1823.55. Price had reached a low of $1830.48 overnight. The low was also accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price low. 20EMA is hinting at a bearish price trend and we think there could be another decline below $1830.48 to $1823 in the next 48 hours.

Support1830.151814.151798.05
Resistance1842.551853.151865.80

NZD/USD – Price reached a low of 0.6250 yesterday and this low was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price low. Price is currently capped by the falling 20EMA line at 0.6310. A move above this point would confirm the low and hint at a rally to 0.6385 in the next couple of days. Stochastic and MACD are hinting at an opposite direction compared to the 20EMA line. We prefer the bullish view.

Support0.62800.62450.6190
Resistance0.63100.63550.6390

FX Commentary – Powell’s Dovish Comments Send US Dollar Lower

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar wobbled on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell failed to offer fresh signs of a hawkish pushback against a resilient labour market in the United States, leading investors to bet that interest rates may not rise much further.

– In an eagerly awaited speech earlier on Tuesday, the Fed’s Powell reiterated that disinflation has begun but warned that Friday’s eye-popping jobs report showed why the battle against inflation will “take quite a bit of time.”

– The euro was last at $1.0732, after falling to $1.0669 in the previous session, its lowest since Jan. 9. Sterling rose to $1.2057, rebounding from Tuesday’s one-month trough of $1.1961. The Japanese yen was flat at 131.08 per dollar on Wednesday morning, after surging 1.2% in the previous session.

– The Aussie continues to gain to $0.6967, after surging more than 1% on Tuesday aided by a 25 basis point hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The kiwi was 0.02% higher to $0.6326.

– Gold prices steadied at $1873 an ounce on Wednesday following somewhat mixed signals on monetary policy from the Fed. Bullion recovered from its recent low of $1860.31, as markets took a dovish view on overnight comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who did not revert to a hawkish stance after strong jobs data.


Chart Focus USD/CAD

Key Points

1. Sell USD/CAD recommendation.

2. Sell USD/CAD at 1.3400. Stop at 1.3430 and profit target at 1.3300

3. Fed Chair Powell’s dovish comment and an uptick in crude oil price are both aiding the Canadian dollar.

4. Price is likely to be capped by the 20EMA with stochastic and 20EMA both hinting at a continuation of the bearish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. Fed Chair Powell’s dovish comment is weighing on the U.S. dollar.

2. An uptick in crude oil price is aiding the Canadian dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be capped by the 20EMA, which is also hinting at a bearish price trend.

2. Stochastic is hinting at a continuation of the bearish price trend.



Key Levels

Support1.33751.33451.3290
Resistance1.34051.34451.3475









Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price had declined to a low of 130.48 overnight, lower than our expectation but we continue to be bullish on this pair. We think the next price move would be to the topside at 132.90 again in the next few days as long as price stays above the overnight low of 130.48. Indicators are mixed and not giving a good clue at the moment. We remain as price has stayed above the Fibonacci 50% support.

Support130.95130.45129.95
Resistance131.50132.25132.90

EUR/USD – We had a sell recommendation yesterday at 1.0795 but price only reached a high of 1.0766. Our entry order was not filled. Price has declined to a low of 1.0668 overnight. The trend remains bearish. However, stochastic is hinting there might be a rally before the decline resumes. We favour a rally to test the important resistance point at 1.0805 which could decide the next direction.

Support1.07051.06701.0630
Resistance1.07451.07951.0835

GBP/USD – Price was capped by the falling 20EMA at 1.2093 and there is a possibility of a decline back to the previous low at 1.1960 in the next few days. Both 20EMA and MACD are bearish and hinting at a bearish price trend. We are bearish on this pair despite Powell’s dovish comment. If price fails to move above 1.2093, we think price is likely to head lower to 1.1960. A move above 1.2093 will hint at a rally to 1.2220.

Support1.20001.19601.1925
Resistance1.20601.20951.2145

XAU/USD – Price has been consolidation in a range of $1860.65 to 1884.15 since the beginning of this week. We are likely to see price consolidates in this range for another 24 hours. Price will need to move above $1885 in order to regain its bullish impetus. Failure to move above this resistance is likely to send price lower $1843. Our view remains the same as yesterday and we are looking for a decline to $1843.

Support1873.401860.651843.60
Resistance1884.151896.551909.50

NZD/USD – Price was capped by the falling 20EMA line at 0.6348 and trend indicators are hinting at a bearish price trend. However, stochastic is hinting at a price rally. We remains bullish on the U.S. dollar and we see another decline to 0.6265 in the next 48 hours if price is capped at 0.6350. A move above 0.6350 would hint at a rally to 0.6410 in the next 24 hours.

Support0.62950.62650.6210
Resistance0.63300.63600.6410