Tag: USD/CHF

FX Commentary – US Dollar Held Gains On Expectation Of Tight Monetary Policy.

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar held gains on Thursday after strong U.S. banking results firmed up expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep monetary policy tight for a while longer while the New Zealand’s dollar slumped after cooler than expected inflation data.

– The Japanese yen weakened for a second day, losing 0.1% to at 134.85, after the yield on two-year Treasury notes rose 7 basis points to 4.269%, after hitting a one-month high of 4.286%. The greenback had briefly poked above 135 for the first time in a month in Wednesday’s trading.

– Sterling was last trading at $1.2440, up 0.13% on the day after hotter-than-expected UK inflation cemented expectations for more rate hikes by the Bank of England.

– New Zealand’s consumer price index for the first quarter came in below expectations on Thursday, but remained near historic highs. The kiwi slid 0.7% to $0.6154 after touching the weakest level since March 16.

– Gold prices traded below key levels on Thursday, coming under pressure from resurgence in the dollar and mounting expectations that major central banks across the globe will keep raising interest rates in the near-term.


Chart Focus USD/CHF

Key Points

1. Buy USD/CHF recommendation.

2. Buy USD/CHF at 0.8925. Stop at 0.8895 and profit target at 0.9050

3. Expectations of another 25bp Fed hike and an increase in US Treasury yields are both likely to aid the U.S. dollar.

4. Price is likely to be supported by the Fibonacci 50% correction point with MACD hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. An increase in US Treasury yields is likely to aid the U.S. dollar.

2. Expectations of another interest rate hike by the Fed is likely to aid the U.S. dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be supported by the Fibonacci 50% correction point.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend.



Key Levels

Support0.89350.88950.8855
Resistance0.89750.90050.9045










Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price reached a high of 135.13 on Wednesday but this high was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price high. Stochastic is also hinting at a price decline ahead but 20EMA is hinting at a strong bullish price trend. We think price may have reached a high at 135.13 and we see a decline back to 133.80 in the next few days.

Support134.30133.95133.35
Resistance134.75135.15135.80

EUR/USD – Price has tested the support at 1.0905 on 2 occasions and both times, this support has managed to hold. We are likely to test a test of the top side at 1.1075. Stochastic is hinting at a price rally ahead. MACD and 20EMA are neutral at the moment. We think price is likely to move higher to 1.1020 in the next 48 hours as long as price can hold above 1.0945.

Support1.09401.09051.0865
Resistance1.09851.10201.1075

GBP/USD – Price has managed to hold around the 20EMA support level and if this support holds, price is likely to test the topside of 1.25 again in the next 48 hours. Stochastic is rising and is hinting at a bullish price trend. MACD is about to turn bullish while 20EMA is neutral at the moment. We favour the topside test but a move below 1.2390 would negate our bullish price view for the next 48 hours.

Support1.24051.23551.2305
Resistance1.24551.25051.2545

XAU/USD – Price only reached a high of $1998.50 overnight, missing our sell entry price at $1999. If price is capped by the 20EMA at $2000, we are likely to see another decline to $1965. If price can move above the $2000 level, we are likely to see a test back to $2022 in the next few days. MACD has a divergence and is hinting at a price rally. Stochastic is also hinting at a price rally but 20EMA is hinting at a price decline. We favour the upside test.

Support1980.951966.001949.65
Resistance1998.852011.702022.65

NZD/USD – Price reached a low this morning at 0.6148 but this low was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price low. Stochastic is hinting at continuation of this price decline. 20EMA is also hinting at a bearish price trend. We think price may have reached a low and we see a rally back to the previous high at 0.6225 in the next few days.

Support0.61450.60950.6060
Resistance0.61850.62250.6260

FX Commentary – Greenback Paused After A Sharp Rally Over Easter Holiday

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar paused for breath after an overnight rally on Tuesday, following its best rally this month against major peers as a resilient U.S. labour market bolstered the case for a Federal Reserve rate hike next month.

– The Japanese yen managed to claw back some of Monday’s more than 1% slide, as the 10-year Treasury yield also slowed down in Tokyo trading after a sharp two-day climb. The yen came under additional pressure overnight as the new Bank of Japan governor, Kazuo Ueda, vowed to stick with ultra-easy stimulus setting for the time being.

– The euro fell 0.36% to $1.0859 after dropping to $1.0831, the lowest since April 3. Sterling ticked up 0.11% to $1.2397 after a 0.23% overnight decline. The Swiss francs were little changed at 0.9060.

– The Australian dollar fell 0.51% to $0.6674, after earlier hitting $0.6619, the lowest since March 16, and the kiwi dropped 1.01% to $0.6211, after earlier reaching $0.6195, the lowest since March 27.

– Gold prices hovered just below recent highs on Tuesday, remaining relatively underpinned as markets awaited more cues on the U.S. economy from inflation data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting due later this week.


Chart Focus USD/JPY

Key Points

1. Buy USD/JPY recommendation.

2. Buy USD/JPY at 133.00. Stop at 132.70 and profit target at 134.60.

3. An increase in US Treasury yields and interest rate differential are both against the yen

4. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA line with MACD hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. An increase in US Treasury yields is likely to weigh on the Japanese yen.

2. Interest rate differential is in the US dollar favour

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be supported by the bullish 20EMA line.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend.



Key Levels

Support133.15132.70132.10
Resistance133.70134.40134.85











Technical Overview

USD/CHF – Price has reached a high of 0.9119 on Monday and we think price has reached a high and we are likely to see a continuation of the decline to 0.9000 again in the next couple of days. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline. MACD is also hinting at a price decline. The 20EMA line is bearish and hinting at a bearish price trend. Only a move above 0.9120 would negate our bearish view and calls for a test of 0.9190.

Support0.90400.90000.8965
Resistance0.90800.91200.9185

EUR/USD – Price reached a low of 1.0830 overnight and we have seen a recovery to a high of 1.0897 this morning. If price is capped by the 20EMA at 1.0897, we are likely to see a decline back to 1.0830. However, if price can move above 1.0897, we are likely to see a rally to test the previous high at 1.0965. Stochastic is suggesting a price rally. MACD is supporting stochastic but 20EMA is hinting at a price decline.

Support1.08551.08201.0785
Resistance1.09001.09351.0975

GBP/USD – Price reached a low of 1.2343 on Monday and we have seen a recovery to 1.2419 at the point of this writing. If price is capped at 1.2420, we are likely to see a decline back to 1.2345. However, if price can move above 1.2420 we are likely to see a rally to test the previous high at 1.2525. Stochastic is suggesting a price rally. MACD is supporting stochastic but 20EMA is hinting at a price decline.

Support1.23801.23401.2375
Resistance1.24251.24701.2525

XAU/USD – Price had reached a high of 2032.16 last Wednesday and we have seen a price decline to 1981.58 yesterday. Stochastic is hinting that price can move above the 20EMA line at $1999.20 to a high of $2020 in the next couple of days. MACD is also supporting this view. However, 20EMA is hinting that price is likely to decline lower. We think price could move higher to $2020 in the next few days.

Support1981.601966.001949.65
Resistance2002.902020.402032.15

AUD/USD – Price is currently capped by the 20EMA line at 0.6655. Stochastic is hinting at a price rally but both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a price decline in the next 48 hours. We think price is likely to decline back to test the overnight low at 0.6618 in the next 48 hours. However, a price move above 0.6690 would negate our bearish view and call for a rally to 0.6705.

Support0.66450.66150.6565
Resistance0.66850.67250.6775

FX Commentary – Greenback Boosted By Position Squaring Ahead of NFP

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar advanced on Wednesday, recovering from two-month lows hit in the previous session, as investors lightened their short positions to book profits ahead of the all-important U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday.

– Overnight, the ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employers hired fewer workers than expected in March, suggesting a cooling labour market. The jobs data supported the view that the Federal Reserve may not need to raise rates much further.

– The greenback posted its third daily loss against the yen to 131.15 as Treasury yields extended their decline. The euro edged up to 1.0970 while sterling was last trading at 1.2455, down 0.35% on the day.

– The New Zealand dollar rose 0.1% versus the greenback to $0.6316, rallying by as much as 1.1% to a two-month high of $0.6379 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly raised interest rates by 50 bps to a more than 14-year high of 5.25%.

– Gold touched its highest in one year as recent U.S. economic data fanned fears of a slowdown and spurred bets the Federal Reserve may ease up on rate hikes. Gold was last trading at $2013.50.

Chart Focus USD/CHF

Key Points

1. Sell USD/CHF recommendation.

2. Sell USD/CHF at 0.9090. Stop at 0.9125 and profit target at 0.9005

3. Weak US job data and views that the Fed is near the end of its monetary tightening cycle is likely to weigh on the US dollar.

4. Price is likely to be capped by the 20EMA with MACD hinting at a bearish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. Weak US job data is likely to weigh on the U.S. dollar.

2. Views that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its monetary tightening cycle is likely to weigh on the US dollar

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be capped by the 20EMA which is also hinting at a price decline.

2. MACD is bearish and is hinting at a price decline










Technical Overview

USD/JPY – We had a sell recommendation yesterday at 132.10 but price did not reached our entry price. Price only reached a high of 131.77 and declined to 130.59 overnight. The low was below the Fibonacci 62% correction point of the rally from 129.63 to the high at 133.75.  Stochastic and MACD are both hinting at a price rally. However, 20EMA is hinting at a strong bearish price trend. We think there could be a corrective rally to 131.70 in the next 24 hours.

Support130.95130.60130.05
Resistance131.50132.20132.85

EUR/USD – The overnight decline off the high at 1.0972 had moved below the 20EMA line, hinting at a bearish price trend. However, price is currently being supported by a previous support level. If price can hold above this support level, we can see a test back to the previous high at 1.0972. If price fails to hold above this support, we are likely to see a price decline to 1.0785. We prefer the bullish view.

Support1.08851.08451.0785
Resistance1.09301.09751.1030

GBP/USD – Price had reached a high of 1.2524 on Tuesday and declined to the 20EMA support at 1.2435 overnight. MACD is hinting at a price rally in the next 24 hours. 20EMA is also hinting at a price rally. However, stochastic is hinting that the decline may not be over as yet. We prefer to go with the MACD and we think price is likely to be support at 1.2435 and we are likely to see a rally to 1.2525 again in the next 24 hours.

Support1.24351.23801.2330
Resistance1.24851.25251.2580

XAU/USD – Price broke out of a triangle chart pattern on Tuesday and reached a overnight high of $2032.16. We think price is likely to continue higher but in the next 24-48 hours, we are likely to see a corrective decline back to the 20EMA line $2003 or the Triangle support at $19935. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline but both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bullish price trend.

Support2003.20.1990.451976.80
Resistance2021.202032.202049.70

NZD/USD – Price had risen to a high of 0.6375 yesterday after an unexpected 50 basis points hike by the RBNZ. The rally failed to sustain and we have seen a price decline below the 20EMA at 0.6295. We are likely to see a continuation of this decline to 0.6205 in the next 48 hours. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline. MACD is also hinting at a possible price decline while 20EMA has already turned down.

Support0.62700.62350.6180
Resistance0.63050.63500.6375

FX Commentary – US Dollar Slumped To 2-Month Low On Weak JOLTS Data

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar was stuck near two-month lows on Wednesday U.S. job openings dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years in February, suggesting that labour market conditions were finally easing and bolstering views that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its monetary tightening cycle.

– Overnight JOLTS data showed job openings, a measure of labour demand, were down 632,000 to 9.9 million on the last day of February. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 10.4 million openings.

– The euro was up 0.12% to $1.0965, hovering near two-month peaks it touched on Tuesday. Sterling was last trading at $1.2509, up 0.08% on the day, just shy of the ten month high it scaled on Tuesday. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.21% to 131.41 per dollar.

– The kiwi jumped to $0.6383 after a larger-than expected interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The RBNZ hiked interest by 50 basis points to a more than 14-year high of 5.25% on Wednesday while economist had forecasted a 25 basis point hike.

– Spot gold jumped about 2% on Tuesday to their highest in nearly two weeks at $2,025 after weak economic data bolstered views that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its tightening cycle.


Chart Focus USD/JPY

Key Points

1. Sell USD/JPY recommendation.

2. Sell USD/JPY at 132.10. Stop at 132.45 and profit target at 130.60

3. Weak US economic data and views that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its monetary tightening cycle are likely to weigh on the US dollar.

4. Price is likely to be capped by the 20EMA with MACD hinting at a bearish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. Weak US economic data is likely to weigh on the U.S. dollar.

2. Views that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its monetary tightening cycle is likely to weigh on the US dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be capped by the 20EMA which is also hinting at a price decline.

2. MACD is bearish and is hinting at a price decline.










Technical Overview

USD/CHF – Price broke below the low of 0.9070 but this low was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price low. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and is also hinting at a limited downside ahead. However, 20EMA is hinting at a strong bearish price trend. We could see a corrective rally back to 0.9115 before the decline resume again.

Support0.90150.89650.8925
Resistance0.90650.90950.9140

EUR/USD – Overnight price reached a high of 1.0972 but MACD is showing sign of weakness and hinting at a possible price high. Stochastic is also in the overbought zone and is hinting at a limited price upside. However, 20EMA is hinting at a strong bullish price trend. We are bullish but in the next 24 hours, we could see a corrective decline to 1.0925 before the rally resumes again.

Support1.09251.08751.0825
Resistance1.09751.10301.1070

GBP/USD – Price reached a high of 1.2524 last night and could be coming off in the next 24 hours in a correction. The trend remains bullish as indicated by the 20EMA line which is hinting at a strong bullish price trend. MACD also remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and is hinting at a possible price decline. Above 1.2524 would hint at a continuation of the price rally to 1.2600.

Support1.24751.24251.2385
Resistance1.25251.25951.2660

XAU/USD – Price broke out of a triangle chart pattern overnight and reached a high of $2025.00. Stochastic is hinting at a continuation of this rally. MACD is also bullish and hinting at a bullish price trend. 20EMA is also hinting at a bullish price trend. The triangle chart pattern is also hinting at a price rally. We could see price moving up to test the previous high of $2070 to $2074 in the next few days.

Support2018.202003.201995.10
Resistance2032.602049.702059.10

EUR/JPY – We had a buy call yesterday at 144.40 but price decline to a low of 143.80, taking out our stop at 144.10 along the way. It is possible price may have reached a low as MACD remains bullish. However, Stochastic is hinting at a continuation of the price decline. 20EMA is neutral. We remain bullish on this pair and are looking for a price rally to 145.60. A move below 143.55 would negate our bullish view.

Support143.80143.15142.70
Resistance144.40144.95145.60

FX Commentary – Greenback Weaker On Easing Worries Of Banking Crisis.

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar fell against a basket of currencies for a second straight day on Tuesday on easing worries about a banking crisis after First Citizen Bancshares agreed to buy all of failed lender Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits and loans revived investors’ appetite for riskier currencies.

– The greenback found little support from data on Tuesday that showed the US trade deficit in goods widened modestly in February as exports declined, potentially setting up trade to be a drag on economic growth in the first quarter.

– The euro climbed to a five-day high of 1.0844 against the greenback as euro zone government bond yields rose on Tuesday. The British pound was hovered around a two-month high as the Bank of England said Britain was not experiencing stress linked to the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse.

– The yen rallied with analysts pointing to a pickup in flows ahead of the end of Japan’s fiscal year on Friday. The dollar fell as low as 130.415 yen, and was last off 0.60 % at 130.795 as the Japanese currency rose. The Australian dollar was at $ 0.67025 after getting a lift from better-than-expected retail sales data – Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Wednesday, coming under pressure from an overnight surge in Treasury yields and as regulators further down played concerns over a widespread U.S. banking crisis.











Technical Overview
USD/CHF – Price has moved above a recent high at 0.9216 and we are likely to see a continuation of this move higher to 0.9265 in the next few days. Stochastic is supporting this view. Stochastic is moving up and is not near to the overbought zone as yet. MACD is bullish and is hinting at a price rally. 20EMA is also point to a rising price trend. Only a move below 0.9155 would negate our bullish price view.

Support0.91850.91150.9070
Resistance0.92200.92550.9290

EUR/USD – The rally off the low at 1.0712 has stalled at the Fibonacci 62% correction point, which could be a hint of a price decline ahead. If price failed to move above the Fibonacci point at 1.0850, we are likely to see a decline back to 1.0712. However, a move above 1.0850 is likely to hint at a rally to 1.0928. Stochastic and MACD are both hinting at a price decline but 20EMA is hinting at a price rally. We would recommend watching the important point at 1.0850.

Support1.08051.07651.0715
Resistance1.08501.08851.0930

GBP/USD – Price reached a new high at 1.2348 yesterday but this high was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, warning of a potential new high. Stochastic has a bearish crossover and is moving lower, hinting at a bearish price trend. However, both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bullish price trend. We think price has reached a high and a decline back to 1.2190 in the next 48 hours.

Support1.22951.22401.2185
Resistance1.23501.23951.2445

XAU/USD – Price could be forming a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hourly chart. We are expecting sideways movement inside this triangle for the next 24-48 hours. Stochastic is hinting at a price rally but MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a price decline. Watch out for the breakout at either $1955 or $1995 and we would recommend following in the direction of the breakout. We favour the upside break.

Support1958.551943.851934.20
Resistance1975.301988.851998.40

AUD/USD – Price has been moving in a range for the past 7 trading days. The upper boundary lies at 0.6758 while the lower boundary lies at 0.6625. We are likely to see a continuation of the range for the next 48 hours. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline but MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a bullish price trend. We would prefer to wait out this sideways range movement for the next 24 hours.

Support0.66600.66200.6585
Resistance0.67100.67500.6780