Tag: USD/JPY

FX Commentary – US Dollar Slumped To 2-Month Low On Weak JOLTS Data

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar was stuck near two-month lows on Wednesday U.S. job openings dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years in February, suggesting that labour market conditions were finally easing and bolstering views that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its monetary tightening cycle.

– Overnight JOLTS data showed job openings, a measure of labour demand, were down 632,000 to 9.9 million on the last day of February. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 10.4 million openings.

– The euro was up 0.12% to $1.0965, hovering near two-month peaks it touched on Tuesday. Sterling was last trading at $1.2509, up 0.08% on the day, just shy of the ten month high it scaled on Tuesday. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.21% to 131.41 per dollar.

– The kiwi jumped to $0.6383 after a larger-than expected interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The RBNZ hiked interest by 50 basis points to a more than 14-year high of 5.25% on Wednesday while economist had forecasted a 25 basis point hike.

– Spot gold jumped about 2% on Tuesday to their highest in nearly two weeks at $2,025 after weak economic data bolstered views that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its tightening cycle.


Chart Focus USD/JPY

Key Points

1. Sell USD/JPY recommendation.

2. Sell USD/JPY at 132.10. Stop at 132.45 and profit target at 130.60

3. Weak US economic data and views that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its monetary tightening cycle are likely to weigh on the US dollar.

4. Price is likely to be capped by the 20EMA with MACD hinting at a bearish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. Weak US economic data is likely to weigh on the U.S. dollar.

2. Views that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its monetary tightening cycle is likely to weigh on the US dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be capped by the 20EMA which is also hinting at a price decline.

2. MACD is bearish and is hinting at a price decline.










Technical Overview

USD/CHF – Price broke below the low of 0.9070 but this low was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price low. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and is also hinting at a limited downside ahead. However, 20EMA is hinting at a strong bearish price trend. We could see a corrective rally back to 0.9115 before the decline resume again.

Support0.90150.89650.8925
Resistance0.90650.90950.9140

EUR/USD – Overnight price reached a high of 1.0972 but MACD is showing sign of weakness and hinting at a possible price high. Stochastic is also in the overbought zone and is hinting at a limited price upside. However, 20EMA is hinting at a strong bullish price trend. We are bullish but in the next 24 hours, we could see a corrective decline to 1.0925 before the rally resumes again.

Support1.09251.08751.0825
Resistance1.09751.10301.1070

GBP/USD – Price reached a high of 1.2524 last night and could be coming off in the next 24 hours in a correction. The trend remains bullish as indicated by the 20EMA line which is hinting at a strong bullish price trend. MACD also remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and is hinting at a possible price decline. Above 1.2524 would hint at a continuation of the price rally to 1.2600.

Support1.24751.24251.2385
Resistance1.25251.25951.2660

XAU/USD – Price broke out of a triangle chart pattern overnight and reached a high of $2025.00. Stochastic is hinting at a continuation of this rally. MACD is also bullish and hinting at a bullish price trend. 20EMA is also hinting at a bullish price trend. The triangle chart pattern is also hinting at a price rally. We could see price moving up to test the previous high of $2070 to $2074 in the next few days.

Support2018.202003.201995.10
Resistance2032.602049.702059.10

EUR/JPY – We had a buy call yesterday at 144.40 but price decline to a low of 143.80, taking out our stop at 144.10 along the way. It is possible price may have reached a low as MACD remains bullish. However, Stochastic is hinting at a continuation of the price decline. 20EMA is neutral. We remain bullish on this pair and are looking for a price rally to 145.60. A move below 143.55 would negate our bullish view.

Support143.80143.15142.70
Resistance144.40144.95145.60

FX Commentary – US Dollar Stumbled On Weak ISM Data

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar stumbled on Monday, surrendering earlier gains following unexpected oil output cuts from OPEC+, as data showed the U.S. economy continued to slow with declines in manufacturing and construction spending.

– Data on Monday added to the narrative that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its rate-hike cycle. The Institute for Supply Management data on Monday showed that manufacturing activity fell to the lowest in nearly three years in March as new orders continued to contract, with all sub-components of its manufacturing PMI below the 50 threshold for the first time since 2009.

– The euro fell to $1.0890, having gained more than 0.5% on Monday. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar rose 0.28% to 132.83. Sterling firmed 0.8% at $1.2422, while the dollar dipped 0.% against the Swiss franc to 0.912 francs.

– The Australian dollar slipped to 0.6770 on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, as expected, with policymakers saying additional time was needed to “assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the economic outlook”.

–  Gold prices fell slightly $1978 on Tuesday after rallying back to key levels in the prior session as markets considered the potential for more economic turmoil this year amid a manufacturing slowdown and rising fuel costs.


Chart Focus EUR/JPY

Key Points

1. Buy EUR/JPY recommendation.

2. Buy EUR/JPY at 144.40. Stop at 144.10 and profit target at 145.60.

3. Divergent monetary policy and interest rate differential are both in the Euro interest.

4. Price is supported by the 20EMA with MACD hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. Divergent monetary policy is in the Euro’s favour.

2. Interest rate differential is in the Euro’s favour

Technical Comments

1. Price is supported by the 20EMA which is also hinting at a bullish price trend.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend.










Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price had reached a high of 133.75 on Monday and that high was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price high. We are likely to see a price decline back to the Fibonacci 50% correction point of the rally at 132.15 over the next few days. Stochastic is also hinting at a price decline, 20EMA remains neutral. A price move above 133.75 would negate our bearish price view.

Support132.55132.10131.70
Resistance133.10133.70134.35

EUR/USD – Price remains nears a 5-week high at 1.0929 and looks likely to test the high again the next couple of days. 20EMA is hinting at a bullish price trend. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a price rally. Stochastic is moving higher and is hinting at a price rally. A move above 1.0930 is likely to send price higher to 1.1032. A move below 1.0785 would negate our bullish price view.

Support1.08801.08451.0790
Resistance1.09251.09851.1035

GBP/USD – Price has moved above the previous week’s high at 1.2422 and looks like it will continue higher to 1.2595 in the next few days. 20EMA is pointing to a bullish price trend. Stochastic is also hinting at a continuation of this current rally. MACD is bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend. Only a move below the 20EMA at 1.2365 would negate our bullish price view for the next few days.

Support1.23951.23351.2270
Resistance1.24501.25151.2575

XAU/USD – Price is consolidation in a big triangle chart pattern at the moment after reaching a high at $2009.75. Both MACD and Stochastic confirm the consolidation triangle chart outlook. 20EMA is neutral at the moment. We would prefer to see a break on the topside for a test to $2078 in the next few weeks. For the short term, watch out for the boundaries at $1991 and the downside at $1943. A break above would confirm our bullish view while a move below the lower boundary would negate our bullish view.

Support1973.101959.501943.85
Resistance1987.551999.552009.75

AUD/USD – A pause by the RBA in rate hike has brought the Aussie dollar down to 0.6755 from a high of 0.6793 earlier in the day before the RBA announcement. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and is hinting at a limited upside. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend. 20EMA is also bullish. We think the correction should be supported at the 20EMA line at 0.6730 and from there we see another rally to 0.6850.

Support0.67450.67150.6665
Resistance0.67950.68500.6895

FX Commentary – Greenback Weaker On Easing Worries Of Banking Crisis.

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar fell against a basket of currencies for a second straight day on Tuesday on easing worries about a banking crisis after First Citizen Bancshares agreed to buy all of failed lender Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits and loans revived investors’ appetite for riskier currencies.

– The greenback found little support from data on Tuesday that showed the US trade deficit in goods widened modestly in February as exports declined, potentially setting up trade to be a drag on economic growth in the first quarter.

– The euro climbed to a five-day high of 1.0844 against the greenback as euro zone government bond yields rose on Tuesday. The British pound was hovered around a two-month high as the Bank of England said Britain was not experiencing stress linked to the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse.

– The yen rallied with analysts pointing to a pickup in flows ahead of the end of Japan’s fiscal year on Friday. The dollar fell as low as 130.415 yen, and was last off 0.60 % at 130.795 as the Japanese currency rose. The Australian dollar was at $ 0.67025 after getting a lift from better-than-expected retail sales data – Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Wednesday, coming under pressure from an overnight surge in Treasury yields and as regulators further down played concerns over a widespread U.S. banking crisis.











Technical Overview
USD/CHF – Price has moved above a recent high at 0.9216 and we are likely to see a continuation of this move higher to 0.9265 in the next few days. Stochastic is supporting this view. Stochastic is moving up and is not near to the overbought zone as yet. MACD is bullish and is hinting at a price rally. 20EMA is also point to a rising price trend. Only a move below 0.9155 would negate our bullish price view.

Support0.91850.91150.9070
Resistance0.92200.92550.9290

EUR/USD – The rally off the low at 1.0712 has stalled at the Fibonacci 62% correction point, which could be a hint of a price decline ahead. If price failed to move above the Fibonacci point at 1.0850, we are likely to see a decline back to 1.0712. However, a move above 1.0850 is likely to hint at a rally to 1.0928. Stochastic and MACD are both hinting at a price decline but 20EMA is hinting at a price rally. We would recommend watching the important point at 1.0850.

Support1.08051.07651.0715
Resistance1.08501.08851.0930

GBP/USD – Price reached a new high at 1.2348 yesterday but this high was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, warning of a potential new high. Stochastic has a bearish crossover and is moving lower, hinting at a bearish price trend. However, both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bullish price trend. We think price has reached a high and a decline back to 1.2190 in the next 48 hours.

Support1.22951.22401.2185
Resistance1.23501.23951.2445

XAU/USD – Price could be forming a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hourly chart. We are expecting sideways movement inside this triangle for the next 24-48 hours. Stochastic is hinting at a price rally but MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a price decline. Watch out for the breakout at either $1955 or $1995 and we would recommend following in the direction of the breakout. We favour the upside break.

Support1958.551943.851934.20
Resistance1975.301988.851998.40

AUD/USD – Price has been moving in a range for the past 7 trading days. The upper boundary lies at 0.6758 while the lower boundary lies at 0.6625. We are likely to see a continuation of the range for the next 48 hours. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline but MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a bullish price trend. We would prefer to wait out this sideways range movement for the next 24 hours.

Support0.66600.66200.6585
Resistance0.67100.67500.6780

FX Commentary – U.S. Dollar Pinned Near 7-week Low After FOMC Decision

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar was pinned near seven-week lows on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve sounded close to calling time on interest rate hikes after announcing a 25 basis points hike, which markets think are more or less over.

– The US central bank raised its benchmark funds rate by 25 basis points, as expected, but dropped language about “ongoing increases” being needed in favour of “some additional” rises, as it watches how wobbling confidence in banks affects the economy.

– The euro touched a seven-week high of $1.0912 on Wednesday, while the yen, which closely follows U.S. yields, fell 0.7% to a six-week low of 130.50. The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose 0.7% and 0.8% respectively to track back toward Wednesday’s peaks.

– Sterling also hovered near a seven-week high as British inflation unexpectedly rose, leaving it at an eye-watering 10.4% and heaping pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates and sound hawkish at its meeting later in the global day.

– Gold prices rose on Thursday, hovering below the key $2,000 level amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will have limited headroom to hike interest rates further, which also pulled the dollar lower.


Chart Focus USD/CAD

Key Points

1. Sell USD/CAD recommendation.

2. Sell USD/CAD at 1.3690. Stop at 1.3720 and profit target at 1.3555.

3. An end of the Fed hike cycle is likely to weigh on the U.S. dollar.

4. A chart pattern and a bearish MACD are both hinting at a price decline ahead.

Fundamental Comments

1. With the U.S. Federal Reserve close to calling time on interest rate hikes, the US dollar is likely to be weak.

2. A decline in US Treasury yields is likely to weigh on the US dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price could be forming a Descending Triangle chart pattern, which is a hint of a price decline ahead.

2. MACD is bearish and is hinting at a price decline.



Key Levels

Support1.36501.36001.3555
Resistance1.36901.37401.3790










Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price had reached a low of 130.41 overnight, which was lower than Monday’s low of 130.53. This low was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator hinting at a possible price low. However, 20EMA and stochastic indicator are both hinting at a continuation of this price decline. We think the downside is limited. We are looking at a bounce to 131.90 in the next 48 hours.

Support130.40129.80129.20
Resistance130.95131.45131.95

EUR/USD – Price continued its rally and had reached a high of 1.0929 at the point of this writing. Stochastic is deep in the overbought zone but expectation of a narrowing of an interest rate differential is likely to keep the bid strong and the market overbought. MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a bullish price trend. We think the rally is likely to continue towards 1.1030 in the next few days.

Support1.08851.08501.0795
Resistance1.09301.09851.1030

GBP/USD – Price broke above last Monday’s high at 1.2284 to reach a high of 1.2334. Stochastic is rising and is hinting at a continuation of this rally. MACD is also hinting at a continuation of this price rally. 20EMA is hinting at a bullish price trend. We think the topside may be limited to 1.2405 in the 24 hours. Bank of England is likely to hike rates by 25 basis points which could have a big impact on the next directional move.

Support1.23201.22801.2230
Resistance1.23701.24051.2450

XAU/USD – The decline was halted at $1934 overnight and we have seen a rally up to 1983.58 at the point of this writing. We remain bearish and think this rally could be a corrective rally, especially if price cannot move above $1989. MACD had previously hinting at a possible price high with a divergence but both stochastic and 20EMA are currently hinting at a price rally. Above $1989 would negate our bearish view and calls for a test of the recent high at $2009.75.

Support1969.401951.901942.55
Resistance1988.302009.752030.25

EUR/AUD – We had a buy call yesterday at 1.6045 but price only fell to a low of 1.6053 and our entry order was not filled. Overnight, we saw price moved above our target to a high of 1.6353. We think this could be a temporary high and we see a decline back to 1.6000 in the next few days. MACD has a divergence warning of a potential price high and stochastic is also hinting at a price decline. 20EMA is hinting at a bullish price trend.

Support1.61501.61051.6055
Resistance1.62051.62551.6295

FX Commentary – U.S. Dollar Pinned Near Low Ahead of FOMC

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar was pinned near five-week lows on Wednesday ahead of the conclusion of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, with investors awaiting clarity on the path the central bank is likely to take in the wake of global banking turmoil.

– CME FedWatch tool showed markets are now pricing in about a 14% chance of the Fed not increasing rates, with a roughly 86% chance of a 25 basis point hike. The Fed will announce its decision on Thursday morning 2am Singapore time.

– The euro was at $1.0767, hovering around a five-week high of $1.0789 scaled overnight. The yen weakened 0.04% to 132.59 a dollar, whereas sterling was last trading at $1.2221, up 0.06% on the day.

– The Australian dollar was at $0.6684, after falling 0.7% to as low as $0.6650 overnight, despite a broad improvement in risk appetite. The kiwi dollar was changing hands at $0.6189, having also eased 0.8% as far as $0.6168 overnight.

– Gold prices moved in a tight range on Wednesday, stabilizing after a sharp drop in the prior session as markets hunkered down ahead of a Federal Reserve interest rate decision, while easing fears of a banking crisis spelt lesser safe haven demand for the yellow metal.


Chart Focus EUR/AUD

Key Points

1. Buy EUR/AUD recommendation.

2. Buy EUR/AUD at 1.6045. Stop at 1.6015 and profit target at 1.6190

3. A solution to Credit Suisse and an aggressive ECB are both likely to aid the euro.

4. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA with MACD hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. The end of Credit Suisse saga is likely to aid the euro.

2. With the ECB on a aggressive hike path, the interest differential is likely to narrow and favours the euro.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA line, which is also hinting at a bullish price trend.

2. MACD is bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend.



Key Levels

Support1.60701.60051.5940
Resistance1.61251.61951.6225










Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price had reached a low of 130.53 on Monday and this low was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator hinting at a possible price low. 20EMA has also turned around and is hinting at a price rally. However, stochastic is in the overbought zone and is hinting at a limited upside. We think price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA and we see a rally to 133.80 in the next few days.

Support132.05131.60131.00
Resistance132.75133.20133.80

EUR/USD – Price continued its rally and had reached a high of 1.0787 overnight. However, stochastic is hinting at a limited upside and MACD is also hinting at a possible price high. Only the 20EMA is hinting at a bullish price trend. We think price has reached a temporary high at 1.0787. We see a decline in price back to 1.0575 in the next few days. A move above 1.0790 would negate our bearish view and calls for a test of 1.1030.

Support1.07551.07201.0670
Resistance1.07901.08451.0885

GBP/USD – Price had reached a high of 1.2284 last Monday and this high was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price high. Stochastic is declining from the overbought zone and is hinting at a price decline. However, both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bullish price trend. We think a high is in place and we see a decline to 1.2050 in the next few days. A move above 1.2284 would negate our bearish view.

Support1.22051.21651.2115
Resistance1.22501.22901.2345

XAU/USD – We think price has reached a high on Monday at $2009.75. A Spinning Top candlestick price pattern is also hinting at a possible price high. MACD on the 4-hourly chart is showing a divergence and is also hinting at a possible price high. Price has also moved below the 20EMA, adding to the bearish price trend. We see price going lower to $1885 in the next few days. Only a move above $1966 would negate our bearish price view.

Support1935.401922.251907.50
Resistance1952.051968.501983.15

NZD/USD – Price had reached a high of 0.6280 on Monday and a decline has seen price reached a low of 0.6166. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and is hinting at a price rally. MACD is about to crossover the zero line and is hinting at a price rally as well. 20EMA is currently hinting at a neutral price trend. We think price is likely to be capped at 0.6235 and we see a decline back to 0.6165 in the next 24 hours.

Support0.61950.61650.6135
Resistance0.62300.62800.6310