GBP/JPY – Tick Insights

FX Commentary – US Dollar Up Ahead Of NFP Tonight

December 3, 2021December 3, 2021Nicholas

Market Talk
– The dollar was up on Friday morning in Asia, with markets adopting a broadly calmer tone. Investors now await the latest U.S. jobs that could clear the path to earlier Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, even as Omicron uncertainties cloud the outlook.

– Jobless claims and planned layoffs data provided further evidence that employers are increasingly disinclined to hand out pink slips amid a tight labour market, the result of booming demand colliding with worker scarcity and low labour market participation.

– Federal Reserve officials continue to reinforce its message that it will quicken the pace of asset tapering. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly saying it may be time to “start crafting a plan” to raise rates to combat inflation, and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin throwing his support behind “normalizing policy.”

– The euro was little changed at 1.1297, consolidating after its drop to an almost 17-month low at 1.1186 last week. The dollar was flat at 113.21 yen. Against the Sterling, the greenback was little changed at 1.3295.

Gold was up on Friday morning in Asia. However, the yellow metal was set for a third, consecutive weekly fall, weighed down by signs that the U.S. Federal Reserve will quicken the pace of asset tapering and hike interest rates earlier than expected to curb inflationary pressures.

Chart Focus EUR/AUD

Key Points

1. Sell EUR/AUD recommendation.

2. Sell EUR/AUD at 1.5965. Stop at 1.6005 and profit target at 1.5800

3. Rising commodities prices and interest rate differential are both likely to favour the Aussie against the Euro dollar.

4. A possible Triple Top with triple divergence warnings from MACD is a strong sign of a market top.

Fundamental Comments

1. Rising commodities prices due to inflationary pressure is likely to favour the Aussie dollar.

2. Interest rate differential is in the Aussie dollar favour.

Technical Comments

1. A possible Triple Tops chart pattern is forming which is a warning of a possible price high and an impending reversal.

2. A triple divergence warnings from the MACD indicator is a strong sign of an impending reversal.

Key Levels

Support	1.5950	1.5900	1.5855
Resistance	1.6005	1.6040	1.6095

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – We think price may have hit a low on Tuesday at 112.52 and a rebound to 114.00 is likely within the next few days. Price has moved above 113.25, which is the 20EMA line resistance at the point of this writing and this could be the first sign of a rally to 114.00. Stochastic is moving higher and hinting of a price rally. MACD is moving higher but remains in the bearish zone. It will take a move below 112.52 to negate our bullish view.

Support	113.20	112.90	112.50
Resistance	113.55	113.95	114.25

EUR/USD – Price has declined below the 20EMA line which is also hinting at a bearish price trend. Stochastic is declining and hinting of a price decline. MACD is also declining but remains in the bullish zone. MACD has a bearish crossover and is hinting at a bearish price trend. We see price declining to 1.1235 initially and eventually to 1.1185. A price move above 1.1360 would negate our bearish view.

Support	1.1260	1.1225	1.1185
Resistance	1.1310	1.1355	1.1385

GBP/USD – We think the low on Tuesday at 1.3194 could be a low and we are likely to see a test to 1.3370 in the next couple of days. However, a price move below 1.3260 would hint at a decline to 1.3194. Stochastic has a bearish crossover and is hinting of a price decline. MACD is near to the zero line but remains bearish. MACD is neutral. 20EMA is also neutral at the moment.

Support	1.3260	1.3225	1.3195
Resistance	1.3310	1.3340	1.3370

XAU/USD – Price broke below $1769.85 last night and decline to a low of $1761.77. While the low is higher than our target at $1758.65, another divergence warning from the MACD indicator is hinting at a possible price low. Stochastic is also in the oversold zone and has a bullish crossover, hinting at a price rally. However, 20EMA remains firmly bearish. We would prefer to wait for tonight NFP for better trend direction.

Support	1769.85	1761.75	1745.70
Resistance	1776.45	1788.05	1802.15

GBP/JPY – Yesterday, we had a sell call at 150.25 which was triggered when price reached a high of 150.78. This price high also triggered our stop loss at 150.55. We lost 30 pips on this trade. Stochastic has a bullish crossover and is rising from the oversold zone. MACD is also rising from its extreme point but MACD remains bearish. 20EMA is also hinting of a bearish price trend.

Support	150.45	150.15	149.85
Resistance	150.80	151.15	151.45

FX Commentary – JPY Remained Near A 7-Week High On Omicron Fear.

December 2, 2021December 2, 2021Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar was down on Thursday morning in Asia while the yen, a fellow safe-haven asset, remained near a seven-week high, impacted by concerns over the new omicron COVID-19 variant and its rapid global spread.

– On Wednesday, in his second day of testimony to Congress, Powell said the U.S. Federal Reserve must prepare for the possibility that inflation may not recede in the second half of 2022 as most forecasters currently expect.

– Sterling, often considered a risk-on currency, was little changed at 1.3276. It had plunged to a near one-year low of 1.3194 on Tuesday. The British pound is struggling to recover on fears over vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron variant.

– The euro was steady at 1.1316, continuing its recovery after dipping to a near 17-month low of 1.1186 last month. Against the yen, the greenback remained closed to Tuesday’s low of 112.53 against the yen, a level not seen since Oct. 11.

-Gold was down on Thursday morning in Asia, but has climbed up from a three-week low. Investors are mulling how central banks are likely to respond to surging inflation amid concerns over the impact of the Omicron coronavirus variant.

Chart Focus GBP/JPY

Key Points

1. Sell GBP/JPY recommendation.

2. Sell GBP/JPY at 150.25. Stop at 150.55 and profit target at 149.50

3. Fears over vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron variant and reduction in risk appetite are both likely to aid the safe haven yen.

4. Price is capped by a strong resistance zone with MACD hinting of a bearish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. Worries that UK vaccination will not be effective against the Omicron variant is weighing on the pound.

2. The rapid global spread of the Omicron variant is reducing risk appetite and aid the safe haven yen.

Technical Comments

1. Price is capped by the Fibonacci 50% correction point as well as the 20EMA.

2. MACD is bearish and is hinting at a bearish price trend.

Key Levels

Support	150.15	149.85	149.45
Resistance	150.45	150.75	151.15

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – We think price may have hit a low on Tuesday at 112.52 and a rebound to 114.00 is likely within the next few days. Last night, we saw a low at 112.66, which is a confirmation of our view that the low on Tuesday could be a temporary low. Stochastic and MACD are rising from their extreme but MACD remains in the bearish zone. 20EMA is also hinting at a bearish price trend.

Support	112.90	112.50	112.05
Resistance	113.25	113.60	113.95

EUR/USD – The price decline was supported by the 20EMA and if the 20EMA continue to hold and support price, we are likely to see a test of the previous high at 1.1382 in the next few days. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at bullish price trend. Stochastic continues to move higher and 20EMA remains bullish. Only a move below 1.1295 would negate this bearish view.

Support	1.1305	1.1260	1.1225
Resistance	1.1340	1.1380	1.1415

GBP/USD – We think the low on Tuesday at 1.3194 could be a low and we are likely to see a test to 1.3370 in the next couple of days. Stochastic has a bullish crossover near the oversold zone and is hinting at a bullish price trend. However, MACD and 20EMA are both bearish and hinting at a bearish price trend. A price move below 1.3260 would hint at a decline to 1.3194.

Support	1.3260	1.3225	1.3195
Resistance	1.3340	1.3370	1.3410

XAU/USD – Price had reached a low of $1769.85 on Tuesday and the low was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator. Stochastic is close to the oversold zone and is hinting at a limited downside ahead. However, 20EMA remains bearish. If price can stay above $1769.85, we are likely to see a rally to $1808. However, a break below $1769.85 is likely to see a price decline to $1758.65.

Support	1775.05	1769.85	1758.65
Resistance	1790.25	1802.15	1815.65

USD/CAD – We had a sell call on this pair yesterday at 1.2740. Overnight price reached a high of 1.2829 which was also above our stop loss at 1.2785. We lost 45 pips on this trade. Stochastic and MACD are both showing a divergence and hinting at a possible price high. 20EMA continues to trend higher and hinting at a strong bullish price trend. We think price may have reached a high and we think there is likely to be a reversal.

Support	1.2775	1.2745	1.2715
Resistance	1.2805	1.2830	1.2895

FX Commentary – US Dollar Continued To Gain On Strong Labour Data and Fed’s Tapering Expectation.

August 11, 2021August 11, 2021Nicholas

Market Talk
– The US dollar was up on Wednesday morning in Asia against its major peers ahead of inflation data that could push the Fed into actions, boosted by a strong labour data from Friday and Federal Reserve’s officials’ hints that asset tapering could begin soon.

– Although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has maintained that inflationary pressure is likely to be temporary but some of his colleagues had hinted that asset purchase tapering is on the cards and last week’s strong U.S. jobs data adds to tapering expectations.

– Six straight sessions of gains against the euro sent the common currency to its lowest since late March overnight at 1.1720 in early Asia trade with the year’s low of 1.1704 within range. The yen, which has dropped for five consecutive sessions against the dollar, fell marginally to 110.65 per dollar in early trade, its lowest since mid-July.

– A measure of consumer sentiment in Australia slid to a one-year low as lockdowns in major cities weigh on the Aussie dollar. The continuous uptick in COVID-19 cases, with Australia extending a lockdown in Melbourne, continues to weigh on the Aussie dollar

– Gold was up on Wednesday morning in Asia despite a stronger US dollar and rising bond yields. Despite the rally, Gold is still $60 below last Friday’s closing due to an overextended decline on Monday on lower market liquidity due to a Singapore holiday.

Chart Focus NZD/USD

Key Points

1. Sell NZD/USD recommendation.

2. Sell NZD/USD at 0.7010. Stop at 0.7030 and profit target at 0.6950

3. US dollar is boosted by a strong labour data, expectation of a Fed tapering as well as the continuous uptick in global COVID-19 cases.

4. Price is capped by the 20EMA which is hinting of a bearish price trend similar to MACD bearish trend hint.

Fundamental Comments

1. US dollar is boosted by a strong labour data and expectation of a Fed tapering.

2. The continuous uptick in COVID-19 cases globally is also keeping the safe haven US dollar strong.

Technical Comments

1. Price is capped by the 20EMA which is also hinting of a bearish price trend.

2. MACD remains bearish and is hinting of a bearish price trend ahead.

Key Levels

Support	0.6970	0.6940	0.6895
Resistance	0.7015	0.7055	0.7090

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – We have seen a rally to 110.75 this morning and this high was accompanied by a divergence warning from MACD. Stochastic is also in the overbought zone. However, 20EMA is pointing up with a steep slope which is a hint of a strong bullish price trend. We remains cautious of a possible price high. The next resistance lies at 110.95.

Support	110.60	110.30	110.00
Resistance	110.95	111.20	111.50

EUR/USD – Price is approaching 2021’s low of 1.1702 and a break of this support is likely to target 1.1600. However, MACD is starting to warn with divergence of a possible price low. Stochastic is also in the oversold zone and is hinting of a limited downside. 20EMA is pointing lower with a steep gradient, which is a hint of a strong bearish price trend. We will need to watch the support for clue to the next direction for this pair.

Support	1.1700	1.1655	1.1620
Resistance	1.1735	1.1775	1.1810

GBP/USD – Price had declined to a low of 1.3819. This is near to the Fibonacci 38% of the rally from 1.3571 to 1.3982 at 1.3825.Stochastic is in the oversold zone at the moment but MACD remains bearish and is hinting of a bearish price trend. 20EMA is pointing down with a steep slope, which is a hint of a strong bearish price trend. The next resistance lies at 1.3850 while support lies at 1.3775. We are expecting price to stay within this range.

Support	1.3820	1.3790	1.3735
Resistance	1.3855	1.3890	1.3930

XAU/USD – Price had declined to a low of $1697.37 on Monday and a bounce up had remained below the gap high of $1764.55. As long as price remains below this gap, the trend is bearish. Yesterday, we had a test to the downside with price establishing a low of $1717.55. If price can hold this level, it is likely to test the 20EMA resistance at $1746.60. Both 20EMA and MACD remain bearish. Stochastic is neutral.

Support	1728.05	1717.55	1704.90
Resistance	1737.80	1752.50	1764.55

GBP/JPY – Yesterday, we had a buy recommendation at 152.60 but this was not filled as price only declined to a low of 152.61. Our view remains unchanged and we are looking for a move to 153.50. Both 20EMA and MACD remain bullish and is hinting of a bullish price trend. Stochastic is in the middle of its range but with a bullish crossover, which is also a bullish hint.

Support	152.95	152.55	152.15
Resistance	153.30	153.70	154.05

FX Commentary – US Dollar Continued To Gain On Strong Labour Data

August 10, 2021August 10, 2021Nicholas

Market Talk
– The US dollar continued its climb against a basket of currencies, buoyed by strong labour market data on Friday that encouraged investors to bring forward their bets that the Federal Reserve could soon start tapering its massive pandemic-era stimulus.

– U.S. jobs report last Friday had stoked bets that the Fed could start trimming asset purchases this year and raise rates as soon as 2022. Non-farm payroll report showed 943,000 new jobs in July compared with the 870,000 forecast. Numbers for May and June were also revised up.

– The prospect of the Fed’s reduced bond-buying pushed down U.S. bond prices, lifting their yields and hitting other safe-haven assets that had benefited from low returns from U.S. debt, such as the Swiss franc and gold.

– The New Zealand dollar also slipped back to $0.6975 from last week’s high near $0.71, but expectations of a rate hike by the country’s central bank next week propped up the currency against many other rivals.

– Gold saw a sharp selloff on Monday morning that saw the precious metal fall more than 5% at a low of $1697.37 in early Asian trading hours. Gold started its slump on Friday as strong U.S. jobs data bolstered expectations for an early tapering of the Federal Reserve’s economic support measures

Chart Focus GBP/JPY

Key Points

1. Buy GBP/JPY recommendation.

2. Buy GBP/JPY at 152.60. Stop at 152.20 and profit target at 153.45

3. Japan increasing COVID-19 cases may weigh on the Japanese economy and interest rate differential is against the yen.

4. 20EMA is supporting price and both 20EMA and MACD are hinting of a bullish price trend ahead.

Fundamental Comments

1. UK re-opening is a boost to its economy while Japan is facing increasing cases of COVID-19 cases.

2. Interest rate differential is in the British pound favour.

Technical Comments

1. Price is supported by the 20EMA which is hinting of a bullish price trend ahead.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting of a bullish price trend.

Key Levels

Support	152.55	152.15	151.90
Resistance	152.90	153.25	153.45

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – We have seen a rally to 110.40 this morning and this high was accompanied by a divergence warning from MACD. Stochastic is also in the overbought zone. We think price may have reached a high and a correction to 109.80 is likely in the next few days ahead. 20EMA remains bullish but once price were to cross below this 20EMA, it is likely to confirm the price decline to 109.80. The next resistance lies at 110.70.

Support	110.00	109.70	109.40
Resistance	110.40	110.70	111.05

EUR/USD – Price had declined below a strong support at 1.1850 on Wednesday and we were looking for a price decline to 1.1750 last Friday. Price had declined to a low of 1.1731 this morning and this could be a temporary low. We are now looking for a bounce to 1.1775 in the next 48 hours as Stochastic is deep in the oversold zone and due for a rebound. MACD is also moving away from its low but 20EMA remains strong bearish.

Support	1.1730	1.1695	1.1645
Resistance	1.1770	1.1810	1.1845

GBP/USD – Price had reached a high of 1.3982 on 20 July and this morning, price had declined to a low of 1.3854. This is close to the Fibonacci 38% of the rally from 1.3571 to 1.3982. Stochastic is in the oversold extreme. MACD is bearish but is near to the zero line. However 20EMA remains bearish. We think the price correction could be close to a low and a rebound could be possible in the next 24 hours. The bounce needs to move above 1.3890 to regain its bullish impetus.

Support	1.3835	1.3800	1.3765
Resistance	1.3860	1.3890	1.3930

XAU/USD – We had a sell recommendation last Friday at $1805.40 but unfortunately price only reached a high of $1802.10 and our entry order was not filled. Price had declined to a low of $1697.37 and a bounce up had remained below the gap high of $1764.55. As long as price remains below this gap, the trend is bearish. Stochastic is above the oversold zone but remains weak while MACD and 20EMA are both bearish and hinting of another price decline.

Support	1724.50	1707.10	1697.35
Resistance	1737.80	1752.50	1764.55

NZD/USD – Price reached a low of 0.6968 this morning which is also the Fibonacci 62% of the rally from 0.6896 to 0.7088. If price is able to hold above this support, we are likely to see a move back to 0.7088. However, if price were to decline below this support, we are likely to see a continuation of the decline to 0.6900. Stochastic is in the oversold zone. MACD and 20EMA remains bearish.

Support	0.6970	0.6940	0.6895
Resistance	0.7005	0.7035	0.7075

FX Commentary – Yuan Back Above 7

November 13, 2019Nicholas

Market Talk

– The dollar clung to most of its recent gains on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said a trade deal with China was “close” but offered no new details on negotiations. China’s Yuan weakened past the 7-per-dollar mark after the speech and was steady at 7.0232 per dollar in offshore trade on Wednesday.

– Hopes for an imminent deal to wind back tit-for-tat tariffs the world’s two largest economies have imposed on each other have lifted the dollar to a one month-high against the euro overnight and steadied near that level at $1.012 on Wednesday.

– The British pound was steady at $1.2850, after a brief boost after the Brexit Party head Nigel Farage said his party won’t contest any seats currently held by the Conservative Party, increasing the chance that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s EU withdrawal agreement can be secured.

– The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held the official cash rate (OCR) at 1.0% on Wednesday, against market expectations for a 25bp easing, but said it remained prepared to act on policy as required. The New Zealand dollar, which fell to near a month-low on Tuesday after a soft survey on inflation expectations, soared 1% on the announcement.

– Later on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to testify on the U.S. economic outlook before the congressional Joint Economic Committee at 12 midnight Singapore time. The first public hearings in Trump’s impeachment inquiry begin an hour earlier.

Key Levels

Support	0.6830	0.6800	0.6775
Resistance	0.6860	0.6885	0.6915

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price dipped below Monday’s low of 108.90 this morning but managed to bounce up. MACD is neutral near the zero line but Stochastic had stayed above the oversold extreme. Our view remains the same as yesterday. Unless 108.90 support breaks, we are bullish for 109.50.

Support	108.85	108.60	108.25
Resistance	109.20	109.50	109.90

EUR/USD – Price may have move below Monday’s low of 1.1015 but our view remains the same as yesterday. We think the downside is limited and a rally is more likely. MACD is starting to warn with divergence while Stochastic is near to oversold extreme. However, 20EMA is still bearish and its bearish trend is strong. Watch the support at 1.0990 for clue.

Support	1.0990	1.0965	1.0935
Resistance	1.1025	1.1060	1.1090

GBP/USD – Price declined to a low of 1.2817 last night, which was also the Fibonacci 62% correction point of the rally from 1.2768 to 1.2897. MACD is bullish while Stochastic is rising. If price is stayed above 1.2817, we think there is potential for a price move to 1.2930.

Support	1.2820	1.2770	1.2735
Resistance	1.2860	1.2895	1.2930

XAU/USD – – Price make a new 3-month low at 1445.50 but in the form of a High Wave candlestick pattern. The candlestick pattern is a warning of a possible low in place and price is currently capped by a downtrend line as well as the 20EMA. A move above 1462 would be bullish and hint of a price move to 1481. MACD is warning with bullish divergence while Stochastic is turning up.

Support	1456.95	1445.50	1439.40
Resistance	1461.85	1470.15	1481.60

GBP/JPY – Our sell call and stop loss were both filled last night. We got our levels wrong yesterday. Price is still within the Ascending Triangle and was supported by a strong support at 139.90. Our view remains the same as yesterday. As long as price is supported above 139.90, we think price could be moving higher to 141.40. MACD is bullish and Stochastic is just below the extreme point.