Tag: AUD/USD

FX Commentary – Greenback Weaker On Easing Worries Of Banking Crisis.

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar fell against a basket of currencies for a second straight day on Tuesday on easing worries about a banking crisis after First Citizen Bancshares agreed to buy all of failed lender Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits and loans revived investors’ appetite for riskier currencies.

– The greenback found little support from data on Tuesday that showed the US trade deficit in goods widened modestly in February as exports declined, potentially setting up trade to be a drag on economic growth in the first quarter.

– The euro climbed to a five-day high of 1.0844 against the greenback as euro zone government bond yields rose on Tuesday. The British pound was hovered around a two-month high as the Bank of England said Britain was not experiencing stress linked to the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse.

– The yen rallied with analysts pointing to a pickup in flows ahead of the end of Japan’s fiscal year on Friday. The dollar fell as low as 130.415 yen, and was last off 0.60 % at 130.795 as the Japanese currency rose. The Australian dollar was at $ 0.67025 after getting a lift from better-than-expected retail sales data – Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Wednesday, coming under pressure from an overnight surge in Treasury yields and as regulators further down played concerns over a widespread U.S. banking crisis.











Technical Overview
USD/CHF – Price has moved above a recent high at 0.9216 and we are likely to see a continuation of this move higher to 0.9265 in the next few days. Stochastic is supporting this view. Stochastic is moving up and is not near to the overbought zone as yet. MACD is bullish and is hinting at a price rally. 20EMA is also point to a rising price trend. Only a move below 0.9155 would negate our bullish price view.

Support0.91850.91150.9070
Resistance0.92200.92550.9290

EUR/USD – The rally off the low at 1.0712 has stalled at the Fibonacci 62% correction point, which could be a hint of a price decline ahead. If price failed to move above the Fibonacci point at 1.0850, we are likely to see a decline back to 1.0712. However, a move above 1.0850 is likely to hint at a rally to 1.0928. Stochastic and MACD are both hinting at a price decline but 20EMA is hinting at a price rally. We would recommend watching the important point at 1.0850.

Support1.08051.07651.0715
Resistance1.08501.08851.0930

GBP/USD – Price reached a new high at 1.2348 yesterday but this high was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, warning of a potential new high. Stochastic has a bearish crossover and is moving lower, hinting at a bearish price trend. However, both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bullish price trend. We think price has reached a high and a decline back to 1.2190 in the next 48 hours.

Support1.22951.22401.2185
Resistance1.23501.23951.2445

XAU/USD – Price could be forming a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hourly chart. We are expecting sideways movement inside this triangle for the next 24-48 hours. Stochastic is hinting at a price rally but MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a price decline. Watch out for the breakout at either $1955 or $1995 and we would recommend following in the direction of the breakout. We favour the upside break.

Support1958.551943.851934.20
Resistance1975.301988.851998.40

AUD/USD – Price has been moving in a range for the past 7 trading days. The upper boundary lies at 0.6758 while the lower boundary lies at 0.6625. We are likely to see a continuation of the range for the next 48 hours. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline but MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a bullish price trend. We would prefer to wait out this sideways range movement for the next 24 hours.

Support0.66600.66200.6585
Resistance0.67100.67500.6780

FX Commentary – U.S. Dollar Remained Weak As Traders Bet On A Smaller US Rate Hike

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The US dollar remains weak on Monday morning after a weekend deal to rescue Credit Suisse and promises of liquidity from central banks offered little lasting respite from fears that a bigger banking crisis is brewing.

– Fears of a U.S. banking crisis saw investors begin pricing in a less hawkish Federal Reserve in the coming months, as the bank races to stem further pressure on the economy from rising interest rates. Last week, the ECB had raised interest rate by 50 basis points despite the banking crisis.

– The euro rose 0.66% to $1.0675. Sterling last traded at $1.2192, up 0.70%, while the dollar fell 0.39% against the Swiss franc. Earlier this week, the franc plunged the most against the dollar in one day since 2015, when the Swiss central bank loosened its currency peg.

– The Japanese yen, which tends to benefit in times of extreme market volatility or stress, strengthened 1.48% versus the greenback to 131.77 per dollar. The Aussie eased 0.1% to $0.6692, while the kiwi dollar also slipped to $0.6255, having hit a one-month high of $0.6309 earlier in the day 

– Gold prices traded just below their strongest levels in 11 months on Monday as markets gauged the impact of emergency liquidity measures from the Federal Reserve and other major central banks amid increasing fears of a banking crisis.


Chart Focus USD/CHF

Key Points

1. Buy USD/CHF recommendation.

2. Buy USD/CHF at 0.9210. Stop at 0.9175 and profit target at 0.9330.

3. Credit Suisse saga and interest rate differential are both likely to weigh on the Swiss francs.

4. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA with MACD hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. Credit Suisse saga is likely to weigh on the Swiss francs.

2. Interest rate differential is in the U.S. dollar favour.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA as well as the Fibonacci 50% correction point.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend.



Key Levels

Support0.92050.91700.9120
Resistance0.92650.93000.9340










Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price continued its decline, moving past the previous week’s low at 131.55 at the point of this writing. Stochastic is hinting that this price decline can continue. 20EMA is also hinting at a strong bearish price trend. MACD is also hinting at a bearish price trend. We think the price is likely to be limited to 131.05. If price can hold above this point, we see a rally back to 134.00 in the next few days.

Support131.30130.70130.30
Resistance131.80132.55133.20

EUR/USD – Price had reached a low of 1.0517 last Wednesday and we have seen a rally to 1.0690 this morning. We think price may have reached a high and we see a decline to 1.0590 in the next 48 hours. Stochastic is suggesting a possible price high in the making. MACD is also hinting at a price decline with its fast line turning down. However, 20EMA remains bullish. A move above 1.0690 would negate our bearish view and calls for a price move to 1.0759.

Support1.06451.05901.0545
Resistance1.06901.07351.0770

GBP/USD – Price has made a high at 1.2209 this morning but this high was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price high. Stochastic is also in the overbought zone and hinting at a possible high as well. 20EMA remains bullish. We think price has made a high and we see a price decline to 1.2010 in the next few days. A move above 1.2210 would negate our bearish view.

Support1.21651.21101.2060
Resistance1.22101.22701.2310

XAU/USD – Price move above the previous week high at $1959.40 this morning to reach a high of $1991.95. Stochastic and MACD are hinting at a possible price high with divergence warnings. However, the 20EMA is hinting at a strong bullish price trend. We think price may be capped by the $2000 mark and we see a decline back to $1935 over the next few days. A move above $2000 is likely to hinting at a continuation of the rally to $2048.50.

Support1980.551966.401951.45
Resistance1998.102015.452032.45

AUD/USD – Price has reached a high of 0.6729 this morning but the MACD indicator has given a divergence with price, hinting at a possible price high.  Stochastic is also turning down from the overbought zone and hinting at a bearish price trend ahead. However, 20EMA is hinting at a continuation of this bullish price trend. We think price may have reached a high and we are looking at a price decline back to 0.6590 in the next few days.

Support0.66600.66250.6595
Resistance0.67000.67300.6780

FX Commentary – Safe Havens Advanced On Credit Suisse’s Woe

Nicholas

Market Talk
– Safe haven currencies like the U.S. dollar and the yen were in bid on Thursday on renewed fears of a global banking crisis, after contagion from the implosion of U.S.-based Silicon Valley Bank had spread across the Atlantic to Swiss bank Credit Suisse.

– The euro was nursing deep losses in early Asia trade at $1.0582, after tumbling 1.4% in the previous session ahead of ECB monetary policy decision later today. Traders’ bets on a 50-basis-point rate hike have evaporated as the rout in Credit Suisse shares fanned concerns about the health of Europe’s banking sector.

– Sterling gained 0.18% to $1.2077, having fallen close to 0.9% on Wednesday. The yen jumped about 0.5% in early Asia trade and last stood at 132.73 per dollar, extending Wednesday’s 0.6% gain.

– The Aussie was last at $0.6634, after Australian data showed employment rebounded by a strong 64,600 in February, while the jobless rate fell back to 3.5%. Upbeat result would have added to the case for the RBA to hike interest rates again at its next meeting in April.

– Gold solidified its hold on the $1,900 perch on Wednesday, hitting a new six-week high at $1937.03, as the U.S. banking crisis that began with California’s Silicon Valley Bank turned global with a heightened focus on the troubled finances of leading European investment banker Credit Suisse.


Chart Focus GBP/USD

Key Points

1. Sell GBP/USD recommendation.

2. Sell GBP/USD at 1.2080. Stop at 1.2110 and profit target at 1.2005.

3. Credit Suisse’s woe and interest rate differential are both weighing on the pound.

4. Price is likely to be capped by the 20EMA line with MACD hinting at a bearish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. Credit Suisse’s woe is likely to weigh on the pound.

2. Interest rate differential is in the U.S. dollar favour.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be capped by the 20EMA line.

2. MACD is bearish and is hinting at a bearish price trend.



Key Levels

Support1.20451.20001.1950
Resistance1.20851.21351.2190










Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price reached a high of 135.10 yesterday which was just shy of the Fibonacci 62% correction point at 135.20. This was followed by another decline below the previous low at 132.27 to a low of 132.20. MACD had given a potential divergence warning hinting at a potential price low. Stochastic is also hinting at a possible price low. However, 20EMA is hinting at a strong bearish price trend.

Support132.65132.20131.75
Resistance133.05133.80134.65

EUR/USD – Price reached a low of 1.0517 overnight and we have seen a rally to a high of 1.0615 at the point of this writing. We are expecting the 20EMA line at 1.0640 to cap this rally. We are looking at another decline to 1.0517 again. Stochastic is hinting at a price rally but MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a price decline. However, tonight ECB monetary policy meeting could have a strong bearing on the next direction.

Support1.05901.05551.0515
Resistance1.06351.06851.0725

AUD/USD – Price was capped by the 20EMA line at 0.6715 and is currently close to the low at 0.6563. 20EMA and MACD remain bearish and are hinting at a bearish price trend. Stochastic is hinting at a price rally. We think if price can stay above the previous day’s low, we are likely to see a rally back to 0.6780 in the next few days. A move below 0.6563 would negate our bullish price view.

Support0.65900.65600.6520
Resistance0.66450.66750.6720

XAU/USD – Price reached a new six-week high at $1937.03 overnight but this high was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible price high. Stochastic is also hinting a possible price decline. 20EMA is hinting at a continuation of the bullish price trend. We think price is likely to move lower today to the previous support level at $1885. A move above the 6-week high would negate our bearish view.

Support1907.351895.951885.15
Resistance1920.101937.101949.15

USD/CNH – We had a sell recommendation at 6.9225 yesterday but price only reached a high of 6.9140 and our entry order was not filled. Indicators are hinting that the upward correction may not be over and we could see a price higher to 6.9260 in the next 24 hours. However a price move above 6.9410 would negate our bearish price view and hinting at a bigger rally to 7.00 in the near future.

Support6.88406.86156.8485
Resistance6.91406.93856.9635

FX Commentary – US Dollar Weakened On Easing Of Inflation

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar weakened on Friday after U.S. labour data for February showed slower wage growth, suggesting an easing of inflation pressures may keep the Federal Reserve’s pace of interest rate hikes modest and thereby reduce the greenback’s appeal.

– The U.S. economy added jobs at a brisk clip in February, but slower wage growth and a rise in the unemployment rate prompted financial markets to dial back expectations for a 50-basis point rate hike when Fed policymakers meet in two weeks.

– The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes fell more than 22 basis points to under 3.70% in the biggest single-day drop in four months, on news of the closing of SVB Financial group, largest bank failure since the financial crisis. The Japanese yen strengthened 1.01% to 134.79 per dollar.

– The euro was up 0.86% to $1.0731, hovering near the one-month high of $1.0737 it scaled earlier. Sterling was trading at $1.2139, up 0.92% on the day. The Australian dollar surged 1.41% to $0.667, while the kiwi gained 1% to 0.6200.

– Gold prices hit a one-month high on Monday at $1,878.92 an ounce, recovering sharply from recent losses as markets bet that a burgeoning banking crisis in the U.S. will push the Federal Reserve into softening its hawkish rhetoric in the coming days.


Chart Focus EUR/USD

Key Points

1. Buy EUR/USD recommendation.

2. Buy EUR/USD at 1.0700. Stop at 1.0670 and profit target at 1.0795

3. Expectation of a hike by the ECB and improved risk sentiment are both likely to weigh on the U.S. dollar.

4. A Double Bottom chart pattern and MACD are both hinting at a price rally.

Fundamental Comments

1. Expectation of a rate hike by ECB this Thursday is aiding the Euro.

2. Capping the fallout from SVB and Signature Bank has improved risk sentiment and weigh on the U.S. dollar.

Technical Comments

1. A Double Bottom chart pattern is hinting at a price rally.

2. MACD is bullish and hinting at a price rally ahead.



Key Levels

Support1.06951.06451.0610
Resistance1.07401.08001.0850

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – We saw a decline to 133.52 this morning as result from SVB and Signature Bank failure.  The yen is likely to take a breather as the US Fed moved to cap the fall out. We may see another attempt in the next 24 hours to test the low at 133.52. A break of this low is likely to send price lower to 132.90 Stochastic is hinting at a limited downside but both MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a price decline.

Support134.15133.55133.15
Resistance134.65135.15135.80

AUD/USD – Price has moved out of a Double Bottom chart pattern which is hinting at a price rally. Stochastic is hinting at a price rally. Both 20EMA and MACD are also hinting at a price rally. We think price is likely to move up to 0.6700 in the next 48 hours. A move above this resistance is likely to send price higher to 0.6775. However, failure to move above 0.6700 is likely to send price lower to 0.6560.

Support0.66350.65950.6560
Resistance0.66750.67050.6755

GBP/USD – Since reaching a low at 1.1802 last week, we have seen price rallied to a high at 1.2140 this morning. There is a strong resistance at 1.2145 and price will need to move above this resistance to continue its rally. Failure is likely to send price lower to 1.1980. Stochastic is hinting at a limited upside. However, MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a price rally. We see price moving above the resistance to 1.2265 in the next 48 hours.

Support1.20701.20151.1980           
Resistance1.21401.21851.2220

XAU/USD – Price reached a high of $1893.35 this morning after the failure of 2 US banks raised risk sentiment, aiding the yellow metal. However, two Shooting Star candlesticks are hinting at a price decline ahead. Stochastic is also hinting at a possible price high and a decline ahead. However, MACD and 20EMA are both showing a bullish price trend. We see price moving lower to $1850 in a corrective decline in the next two days.

Support1870.301858.801846.40
Resistance1882.101893.351900.40

USD/CAD – Price had made a top at 1.3861 last week as price has currently moved below the 20EMA as well as moved below an important support level. We are expecting the decline to continue towards 1.3645 in the next couple of days. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline. Both MACD and 20EMA are also hinting at a price decline. Only a move above 1.386 will negate our bearish view for the next few days.

Support1.37101.36651.3620
Resistance1.37601.38151.3865

FX Commentary – US Dollar Subdued Ahead Of Powell’s Congress Testimony

Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar was subdued on Tuesday ahead of testimony by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, as investors awaited his testimony and jobs data due later this week for further indications on how much higher the U.S. central bank is likely to raise interest rates.

– Powell is likely to outline the path of interest rates in the coming months in his testimony before Congress and market will be watching for any new signals, given that while inflation unexpectedly rose in January, other economic indicators showed the U.S. economy was cooling.

– The Australian dollar declined to 0.6715 after Australia’s central bank raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to the highest in more than a decade at 3.60% on Tuesday.  RBA said it expects further tightening will be needed to curb inflation but recent data suggested a lower risk of a cycle in which prices and wages chase one another.

– The euro was 0.03% lower at $1.0675, having risen nearly 0.5% overnight. Sterling was last trading at $1.2025. The Japanese yen weakened 0.15% to 136.14 per dollar ahead of the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday.

– Gold prices kept to a tight range on Tuesday as markets hunkered down ahead of more cues on monetary policy from a testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Bullion was trading at $1847.50 per ounce while silver was last at $21.07.


Chart Focus XAU/USD – Gold

Key Points

1. Buy Gold recommendation.

2. Buy Gold at $1845.00. Stop at $1838.00 and profit target at $1870.00

3. The US dollar is likely to be weighed down by Powell’s disinflation comment and weak economic data.

4. A Rising Wedge chart pattern and MACD are hinting at a price rally.

Fundamental Comments

1. Fed Chair Powell is likely to stick to his disinflation comment, keeping the US weak.

2. US economic data are hinting at a slowdown in the US economy, weighing on the US dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price could be forming a Rising Wedge chart pattern which is hinting at a rally in price.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a price rally.










Technical Overview

USD/JPY – After price reached a high at 137.09 last Thursday, price has been on a decline. There is an important support at 135.25. If price can stay above this support, we are likely to see another test of the 137.10 high. However, if price fails to hold above the support, price is likely to decline to a previous low at 134.60. Both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a price decline but stochastic is hinting at a price rally

Support135.60135.25134.60
Resistance136.15136.65137.10

EUR/USD – Price has been moving in a narrow range since last Wednesday and today price is likely to test the upper end of its range. If price is able to move above the previous high of 1.0690, we are likely to see a continuation of the rally to 1.0790. However, failure to move above 1.0690 is likely to send price lower to 1.0575 in the next couple of days. Stochastic is hinting at a limited upside but both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a price rally.

Support1.06551.06101.0575
Resistance1.06951.07301.0790

GBP/USD – After testing the low of 1.1915 on three different days, price has bounced up above the 20EMA and we are likely to see this rally continues towards the previous high at 1.2140. Stochastic is moving higher and hinting at a price rally, but the upside could be limited with stochastic inside the overbought zone. MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a bullish price trend. A move below 1.1990 would negate our bullish view.

Support1.19901.19601.1910
Resistance1.20501.20901.2140

AUD/USD – Price looks like it will decline below the recent low at 0.6695, despite a hike of 25 basis points by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA’s dovish comment actually sent price declining. Currently all 3 indicators, stochastic, MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a continuation of the price decline. We are likely to see a price decline to the next support level at 0.6620 in the next 24 hours.

Support0.66850.66500.6620
Resistance0.67300.67700.6805

NZD/USD – We had a buy recommendation yesterday at 0.6205, which was filled when price declined to a low of 0.6172. This was also just above our stop at 0.6170. Stochastic has a bullish crossover and is moving higher, hinting at a price rally. However both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bearish price trend. Our view remains unchanged and we would recommend keeping stop at 0.6170 and profit target at 0.6305.

Support0.61700.61300.6095
Resistance0.62150.62650.6310