Tag: XAG/USD

Market Talks

– The U.S. dollar stood close to a three-month low on Friday morning as the prospect of the Federal Reserve slowing monetary policy tightening as soon as December, following the release of November’s FOMC meeting minutes, dominated investors’ minds.

– Minutes from the Fed’s November meeting released on Wednesday showed that a “substantial majority” of policymakers agreed it would “likely soon be appropriate” to slow the pace of interest rate hikes.

– Sterling rose more than 0.5% overnight and last stood at $1.2112, close to its over three-month high of $1.2153 hit in the previous session and on track for a nearly 2% weekly gain. The euro slipped to $1.0404, but remained close to $1.0481, its highest level in over four months hit last week.

– The Japanese yen jumped roughly 0.7% overnight and last bought 138.60 per dollar. The Aussie slipped to $0.6753, after rising more than 0.4% overnight. The kiwi eased 0.19% to $0.6252, but that was not far off its three-month peak hit in the previous session.

– Gold prices firmed on Friday, gaining 0.3% to $1760.15 en route to a weekly gain, buoyed by the dollar’s retreat on a perceived dovish tilt in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike strategy. Silver eased to $21.46 but was still up about 2.7% for the week.

Chart Focus XAG/USD

Key Points

1. Buy silver recommendation.

2. Buy silver at $21.15. Stop at $20.80 and profit target at $22.10.

3. A perceived dovish tilt in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike strategy and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields are both weighing on the U.S. dollar.

4. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA with MACD hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. A perceived dovish tilt in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike strategy is weighing on the U.S. dollar.

2. A decline in the US Treasury yields is weighing on the U.S. dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend.

Key Levels

Support	21.10	20.90	20.55
Resistance	21.40	21.70	22.05

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – In our last update on Wednesday, we had a buy call at 141.45 but our call was wrong and we got stop out at 140.85. Price has since declined to 138.01 overnight. There could be more downside ahead as MACD has not given a divergence warning as yet. Stochastic is in the oversold zone but 20EMA is hinting at a bearish price trend. The next support lies at 137.70 and price could be heading to this support in the next 24 hours.

Support	138.35	137.70	137.15
Resistance	138.80	139.20	139.60

EUR/USD – Price has reached a high of 1.0448 overnight and the rally looks like it can continue higher to the previous high at 1.0480 in the next 24 hours. Stochastic is in the overbought zone but MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend. 20EMA is also hinting at a bullish price trend. Only a price move below 1.0345 would negate our bullish view for the next 24 hours.

Support	1.0395	1.0340	1.0295
Resistance	1.0445	1.0480	1.0535

GBP/USD – Price reached a high of 1.2153 overnight and the rally looks like it can continue higher in the next 24 hours as MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend. 20EMA is also hinting at a bullish price trend. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and hinting at a limited upside. As long as price stays above the 20EMA at 1.2020, we are likely to see a rally to the next high at 1.2295 in the next few days.

Support	1.2090	1.2050	1.1990
Resistance	1.2130	1.2155	1.2195

XAU/USD – Price managed to rally after it had reached a low of $1731.45 on Wednesday. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a price rally. 20EMA is also hinting at a bullish price trend. However, stochastic is in the overbought zone and is hinting at a limited upside. Price is currently just below the Fibonacci 62%. At this moment price could move in either direction but we prefer the upside.

Support	1751.20	1743.10	1731.45
Resistance	1760.80	1770.80	1785.60

NZD/USD – Price broke above its previous high at 0.6205 to a high of $0.6288 overnight. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a price rally. 20EMA is also hinting at a bullish price trend ahead. However, stochastic is in the overbought zone and is hinting at a limited upside. We are looking at a small pullback to the 20EMA line at 0.6205 and if price can stay above this support, we are looking at a rally to 0.6380 in the next few days.

Support	0.6240	0.6200	0.6160
Resistance	0.6290	0.6340	0.6380

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar lost ground against its peers on Tuesday as investor hopes for slower hikes were renewed by Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard’s comments that it will likely slow its tightening pace soon as it figures out how high borrowing costs need to go and for how long in order to bring down inflation.

– The euro was down against the dollar at $1.0342, after earlier rising to a three-month high of $1.0368. ECB board member Fabio Panetta said on Monday that the central bank must keep raising rates but needs to avoid over tightening, as doing so could destroy productive capacity and deepen an economic downturn.

– Sterling fell ahead of British Chancellor Jeremy Gaunt’s autumn statement on Thursday when he is expected to set out tax rises and spending cuts. The pound was down 0.55% at $1.1770, having risen 4% in the previous two sessions, touching on Friday its highest level since late August.

– The Japanese yen slipped to 140.48 against the dollar after the world’s third-largest economy shrank at an annualized rate of 1.2% in the third quarter, as high inflation weighed heavily on business and consumer spending.

– Gold prices hovered near three-month highs at $1770.70 on Tuesday as mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials on the path of U.S. interest rates kept the dollar pinned to recent lows.

– There will be no Daily FX Commentary tomorrow. Commentary will resume on Thursday.

Chart Focus USD/JPY

Key Points

1. Sell USD/JPY recommendation.

2. Sell USD/JPY at 141.00. Stop at 141.40 and profit target at 138.75.

3. Fed Lael Brainard’s comments and a decline in US Treasury yield are both weighing on the U.S. dollar.

4. Price is likely to be capped by the 20EMA with MACD hinting at a bearish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard’s comment about slowing the tightening pace is likely to weigh on the U.S. dollar.

2. A decline in US Treasury yield is aiding the Japanese yen.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be capped by the 20EMA line, which is also hinting at a bearish price trend.

2. MACD remains bearish and is hinting at a bearish price trend.

Key Levels

Support	140.10	139.60	139.10
Resistance	140.80	141.65	142.35

Technical Overview

NZD/USD – We had a buy recommendation yesterday at 0.6025 but price only declined to a low of 0.6060 and our entry order was not filled. Price has reached a high of 0.6120 this morning and we are likely to see this rally continues higher to the next resistance at 0.6160. Stochastic is in the overbought zone but both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a strong bullish price trend. Only a price decline below 0.5950 would negate our bullish price view.

Support	0.6095	0.6050	0.6015
Resistance	0.6130	0.6165	0.6220

EUR/USD – Price is hovering near the previous week’s high at 1.0363 and 20EMA is hinting at a bullish price trend. There is a strong resistance line at 1.0365-70 level and if price can move above this resistance, we are likely to see 1.0485 in the next couple of days. Stochastic is in the overbought zone but MACD is bullish. If price is capped by the resistance line, we are likely to see a decline back to 1.0090 again.

Support	1.0310	1.0270	1.0220
Resistance	1.0365	1.0415	1.0450

GBP/USD – Price reached a high of 1.1854 last Friday and since that high, price has been consolidating with the 20EMA providing support at 1.1705. If price is supported above the 20EMA, we are likely to see another test of the high at 1.1854 but a decline below the support is likely to send price lower to 1.1595. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline but both 20EMA and MACD are hinting at a bullish price trend.

Support	1.1770	1.1715	1.1650
Resistance	1.1815	1.1855	1.1905

XAU/USD – Price reached a high of $1774.70 and has been holding around the high. However, stochastic is in the overbought zone for a prolong period of time now and is hinting at a price decline. MACD and 20EMA remain bullish and are hinting at a bullish price trend. We think price is likely to decline back to the 20EMA before another attempt at the resistance again. A break of $1774 is likely to send price higher to $1800.

Support	1766.90	1753.20	1743.35
Resistance	1774.70	1782.75	1799.15

XAG/USD – We had a sell recommendation at $21.90 last Friday and yesterday, we had recommended lowering stop to breakeven at 21.90 while keeping profit order at 21.00. Overnight price declined to a low of $21.28 but price has rallied to a high of $22.12 this morning. We are out of this position at our entry price. Stochastic is inside the overbought zone and both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bullish price trend. We think price can continue its rally to the next resistance at $22.49.

Support	21.85	21.30	20.85
Resistance	22.15	22.50	22.95

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar fell across the board for a second straight day on Friday, as investors favoured riskier currencies following signs U.S. inflation is cooling that boosted the case for the Federal Reserve to ease off its hefty interest rate hikes.

– The University of Michigan’s preliminary November reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment showed sentiment fell in November, pulled down by persistent worries about inflation and higher borrowing costs, which also hinted at a sharp slowdown in spending on goods, a survey showed on Friday.

– The Japanese yen weakened 0.24% versus the greenback to 139.12 per dollar, having strengthened 5.4% last week against the dollar as benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell.

– The euro was last down 0.2% at $1.0331. Sterling was last trading at $1.1798, down 0.31% on the day ahead of British Chancellor’s budget on Thursday where he is expected to set out tax rises and spending cuts.

– Spot gold slipped 0.5% to $1,761.86 per ounce on Monday from a three-month peak hit in the previous session, as the greenback and U.S. bond yields edged up after a top U.S. central banker warned that the Federal Reserve was not softening its fight against inflation.

Chart Focus NZD/USD

Key Points

1. Buy NZD/USD recommendation.

2. Buy NZD/USD at 0.6025. Stop at 0.5995 and profit target at 0.6125

3. Signs of a cooler inflation and a decline in benchmark 10-year Treasury yield are weighing on the U.S. dollar.

4. Price is supported by a previous resistance turned support line and the 20EMA with MACD hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. Signs of a cooler inflation have boosted the case for the Fed to ease off its hefty interest rate hikes which is weighing on the U.S. dollar.

2. Decline in benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is weighing on the U.S. dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be supported at the previous resistance turned support line as well as the 20EMA.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend.

Key Levels

Support	0.6045	0.6000	0.5945
Resistance	0.6095	0.6130	0.6160

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price declined to a low of 138.45 late last Friday and we have seen a rise to 139.90 this morning as Stochastic is deep in the oversold zone. MACD is also turning up, hinting at a price rise as well. However, 20EMA is pointing down with a steep slope, hinting at a strong bearish price trend. We are expecting a small corrective rally which is likely to be capped by the falling 20EMA and from there, we are likely to see another decline to test the previous week’s low.

Support	139.05	138.45	138.05
Resistance	139.60	140.00	140.85

EUR/USD – After a two-day rally, price reached a high of 1.0363 and we are likely to see a corrective decline in the next 24 hours as Stochastic is deep in the overbought zone and hinting at a price decline. However, both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a strong bullish price trend. Any corrective decline needs to hold above 1.0190 for a re-test of the previous week high at 1.0363. A move below 1.0190 would negate the bullish price trend.

Support	1.0295	1.0255	1.0215
Resistance	1.0335	1.0365	1.0400

GBP/USD – The two-day rally reached a high of 1.1854 last Friday and we are likely to see a corrective decline to the 20EMA support line at 1.1640 in the next 24 hours. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and is hinting at a price decline. However, both 20EMA and MACD are both hinting at a strong bullish price trend. There is also a resistance turned support line near to the MACD support.

Support	1.1740	1.1690	1.1635
Resistance	1.1790	1.1855	1.1905

XAU/USD – Price reached a high last Friday at $1772.61 and has declined to a low of $1757.85 this morning. We are expecting the decline to continue lower to $1743.35 in the next 24 hours, before the price rally resumes again. Stochastic is deep in the overbought zone and is in need to a correction. However, both 20EMA and MACD are bullish. A move below $1743 would negate our bullish view for the next few days.

Support	1753.40	1743.35	1729.05
Resistance	1766.05	1782.75	1799.15

XAG/USD – We had a sell recommendation at $21.90 last Friday and it was filled when price rallied to a high of $22.05. Price is currently supported by the 20EMA line at $21.40. We are likely to see price continues its decline to the 20.90 in the next 24 hours. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline and MACD has a divergence. We would recommend lowering stop to breakeven at 21.90 while keeping profit order at 21.00.

Support	21.25	20.85	20.50
Resistance	21.70	22.05	22.45

Market Talk

– The U.S. dollar eased against major peers on Tuesday, after the sharp decline in the U.S. service sector PMI stoked hopes that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of rate hikes while Sterling gained after Rishi Sunak was set to become Britain’s next prime minister, seeking to restore stability to a country reeling from years of political and economic turmoil.

– The latest U.S. business activity report signalled that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate rises have started to take effect, and that the Fed might hike rates by less than the 75 basis points previously expected at its Nov 1-2 policy meeting.

– The Chinese yuan tumbled for the third straight session to trade close to its December 2007 lows after Xi Jinping’s new leadership team raised worries that a more powerful Party leadership will increasingly prioritize the state at the cost of the private sector.

– Sterling fell to 1.1279 against the greenback but remains well above its all-time low of $1.0327 seen last month. The euro was last up 0.18% at $0.9880. The Japanese yen was little changed at 148.85 after Friday BOJ intervention.

– Gold prices were pressured near key support levels on Tuesday as the dollar steadied from recent losses amid growing uncertainty over the path of U.S. monetary policy. While hopes of a potential dovish tilt by the Federal Reserve somewhat benefited gold prices last week, markets are still pricing at 75 basis points hike in next week.

Chart Focus XAU/USD – Gold

Key Points

1. Buy Gold recommendation.

2. Buy Gold at $1645. Stop at $1637 and profit target at $1682.

3. Expectation of a dovish Fed and a slower pace of rate hike are both likely to weight on the U.S. dollar.

4. Price is supported by the 20EMA and Fibonacci 50% correction point with MACD hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. Latest US data is pointing to the Fed slowing its pace of rate hikes, which is likely to weigh on the US dollar.

2. A dovish tilt by the Fed is also likely to benefit gold

Technical Comments

1. Price is supported by the 20EMA as well as the Fibonacci 50% correction point.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend.

Key Levels

Support	1643.60	1634.45	1625.10
Resistance	1654.90	1670.60	1682.50

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price reached a high of 151.94 last Friday before a suspected BOJ intervention send price crashing to a low of 145.31. Price has recovered to 148.90 but is still below the 20EMA line. MACD remains bearish and is hinting at a price decline. Stochastic is in the middle of its range and is neutral at the moment. We are expecting price to move above the 20EMA and later in the week, back to test the previous high of 151.94.

Support	148.65	148.20	147.60
Resistance	149.05	149.70	150.30

EUR/USD – Price reached a high of 0.9898 this morning. The high was also the edge of the downtrend channel that started in early Feb of 2022. If price stays below 0.9898, we are likely to see a price decline to 0.9795 in the next 24 hours. Above 0.9898, price is likely to target 1.0000. Stochastic is in the overbought zone but both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bullish price trend.

Support	0.9855	0.9805	0.9750
Resistance	0.9900	0.9960	0.9995

GBP/USD – Price is currently sitting on the 20EMA after reaching a high of 1.1407 on early Monday morning. A break of the 20EMA is likely to send price lower to 1.1060. An ability to stay above 1.1270, we are likely to see a rally to 1.1407 again. Stochastic is near to the overbought zone and both MACD and 20EMA are bullish and hinting at a price rally in the next 48 hours.

Support	1.1270	1.1225	1.1170
Resistance	1.1325	1.1380	1.1410

XAG/USD – Price is currently near to the 20EMA after reaching a high of $19.46 on early Monday morning. If price can stay above the 20EMA, we are likely to see a continuation of the rally to $19.95 in the next 24 hours. If price falls below the 20EMA, it is likely to test the previous low at $18.20. Stochastic and 20EMA are both hinting at a bullish price trend. MACD remains bullish and we are in favour of a test to the previous high.

Support	19.00	18.60	18.20
Resistance	19.35	19.65	19.95

NZD/USD – Price is sitting just above the 20EMA and if it can stay above this support, we are likely to see another rally to test the previous high at 0.5800 again. However, a decline below the 20EMA support is likely to send price down to 0.5550. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend. 20EMA is also hinting at a bullish price trend. Stochastic is neutral at the moment.

Support	0.5690	0.5655	0.5595
Resistance	0.5725	0.5765	0.5800