Tag: NZD/JPY

Market Talk

– Bank of England left its key rate unchanged at 0.75% on Thursday, but two BoE policy makers unexpectedly voted to cut rates, while the majority said a rate cut could become necessary if Brexit uncertainty and a global economic slowdown did not ease. Sterling reached a low of 1.2790 but found this support hard to crack.

– RBA released it monetary policy statement this morning. The reason RBA held rate steady in November was to allow for “time to assess effects”. RBA is prepared to ease if needed. Going forward, inflation and December 2020 GDP (1.75%) is expected to remain unchanged.

 – Gao Feng, a ministry spokesperson for China’s Commerce Ministry, said Thursday that Beijing and Washington had agreed to simultaneously cancel some existing tariffs on one another’s goods but without specifying a timetable, according to the country’s state broadcaster.

The Japanese Yen, widely viewed as a safe-haven currency in times of market uncertainty, traded at 109.33 against the dollar after weakening from levels below 109 yesterday.

Gold slid more than 1% on Thursday to its lowest level in over a month at 1467.71 as U.S. Treasury yields jumped and global equities markets cheered China and United States’ agreement to cancel some tariffs in phases hurting bullion safe haven appeal.

Chart Focus EUR/USD
Key Points
1. Sell EUR/USD recommendation
2. Sell EUR/USD at 1.1060. Stop at 1.1095 and target at 1.0995
3. Recent better than expected US data and interest rate differential are both in the US dollar favour
4. A Double Top chart pattern with bearish MACD is a hint of more price declines.

Fundamental Comments
1. Recent better than expected US data is pointing to a weakened but still rosy US economy
2. Interest rate differential is in the US dollar favour

Technical Comments
1. A Double Top chart pattern is point to more downside
2. MACD is bearish and hinting that any rally is likely to be a correction

Key Levels

Support	1.1035	1.0990	1.0965
Resistance	1.1070	1.1095	1.1130

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price was supported by the 20EMA and from there, we have seen a rally to 109.48. The rally may not be over as yet. As long as price is supported at 109.05, price is likely to test the topside target of 109.65. However, there is divergence warning of a potential high from MACD. Stay aside for the moment.

Support	109.20	108.95	108.65
Resistance	109.50	109.90	110.30

USD/CHF – We had a buy recommendation at 0.9910 but price fell to a low of 0.9911, missing out on our buy order. Overnight price has moved to our profit target at 0.9970. We think the price advance is likely over and we could see a price decline back to 0.9880. MACD has shown a bearish divergence, which is a warning of a possible price high. Stochastic is turning down.

Support	0.9940	0.9905	0.9880
Resistance	0.9970	0.9995	1.0025

GBP/USD – Price broke support at 1.2805 but only managed to decline to 1.2790 and had managed to bounce up higher to 1.2835. Price is like to stay within this range of 1.2790 to 1.2840 until there is breakout of this range. Stochastic is rising but MACD is bearish at the moment. We prefer a downside breakout

Support	1.2790	1.2745	1.2705
Resistance	1.2835	1.2875	1.2915

XAU/USD – Price broke the support at 1478 and fell to a low of 1460.70 which was close to a previous low point of 1458.85. Stochastic is rising at the moment but MACD is strongly bearish. We would prefer to go with MACD and we see another test of the low at 1458.85. Watch the reaction at 1458.85 as we also think the downside could be limited to this low.

Support	1458.85	1447.40	1439.40
Resistance	1470.90	1481.95	1494.15

NZD/JPY – Yesterday, we had lower stop order to 0.6945 while keeping profit order at 0.6875. Our stop loss order was filled yesterday. We are out with a 10 pips loss. While Stochastic is rising, MACD is still bullish. As long as price stays above 69.20, the trend is bullish.

Support	69.15	68.95	68.65
Resistance	69.55	69.95	70.10

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Market Talk
– Lingering doubts about when the United States and China will sign a preliminary trade deal sent safe havens JPY, CHF and Gold higher after a senior official in U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration told Reuters the signing of a so-called “phase one” trade deal could be delayed until December.

– Many investors remain nervous about the risks to the global economic outlook given the 16-month long Sino-US trade war that has rippled across financial markets, slowed global investments and growth. With Brexit showing no signs of a quick resolution and with election increasing uncertainty is also weighing on the financial markets.

– The dollar’s persistent and confounding strength will continue well into next year, and even if a partial U.S.-China trade deal is signed, it will at most knock the currency by 1-2% in the immediate aftermath, a Reuters poll found.

– Traders are also awaiting results of a UK general election on Dec. 12, which will determine whether the ruling Conservative Party can capture a majority in Parliament and conclude Brexit by the Jan. 31 deadline.

– Sterling traded near a one-week low before a Bank of England meeting later on Thursday. No change in policy is expected, but investors are focused on how the BoE will respond to uncertainties posed by Britain’s fraught exit from the European Union.

Chart Focus USD/CHF
Key Points
1. Buy USD/CHF recommendation
2. Buy USD/CHF at 0.9910. Stop at 0.9880 and target at 0.9970
3. Recent better than expected US data and interest rate differential are both in the US dollar favour
4. Price supported by Fibonacci 38% support point and 20EMA with MACD bullish is hinting of further price advance.

Fundamental Comments
1. Recent better than expected US data is pointing to a weaken but still rosy US economy
2. Interest rate differential is in the US$ favour.

Technical Comments
1. Price is supported by both the Fibonacci 38% support point and the 20EMA, hinting of a strong price support.
2. MACD is still bullish with both its lines above the zero line

Key Levels

Support	0.9905	0.9880	0.9850
Resistance	0.9940	0.9970	0.9995

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price has fallen lower after reaching a high at 109.21. Price is likely to test the Fibonacci 62% correction point at 108.40. A break of this point is likely to see price lower to 107.90. However if price is able to hold above the Fibonacci 62% point, we can see a test of 109.20 again. Watch the reaction at 108.40.

Support	108.65	108.30	107.90
Resistance	108.95	109.30	109.60

EUR/USD – Price has started today below the neckline line at 1.1075 but MACD is showing a divergence and warning of a possible bottom. However Stochastic is not confirming the divergence from MACD. 20EMA is also strongly bearish. If price stays below 1.1095, we will stay bearish for 1.1010. However, a move above 1.1095 would negate our bearish view.

Support	1.1050	1.1025	1.0990
Resistance	1.1080	1.1105	1.1150

GBP/USD – Price was capped at 1.2895 and has moved below 1.2840 this morning. We continue to favour a movement to 1.2805-1.2820. This could be the bottom as MACD is starting to show divergence, warning of a possible low. Stochastic is also in the oversold extreme. Wait for better trading idea

Support	1.2820	1.2785	1.2745
Resistance	1.2860	1.2890	1.2925

XAU/USD – Price could be in a big range from 1478 to 1519. There is a possibility of another test to the low of 1478 and we will know if price can move above the 20EMA at 1494.20. If price is unable to move above this resistance point, price is likely to test 1478. If above 1494, we are likely to see a continuation of price movement to the top of the big range at 1516.

Support	1487.05	1474.10	1463.20
Resistance	1494.20	1514.05	1524.30

NZD/JPY – Our sell order at 69.35 was filled when price reached a high of 69.60. Price reached a low of 68.95 this morning. We would recommend bringing stop lower to 0.6945 while keeping profit target unchanged at 0.6875. Stochastic is into oversold extreme but MACD is still bearish at the moment.

Support	68.90	68.65	68.40
Resistance	69.15	69.50	69.95

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Market Talk

– The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 0.75% on Tuesday after concluding its monetary policy. RBA’s Governor Lowe reiterated the bank’s concern about consumer spending and hinted that rate will remain low for an extended period. The Aussie dollar rose to a high of 0.6927 but was unable to sustain its gains.

– The ISM Non-manufacturing sector index in October rose to 54.7 from 52.6 in September, beating market expectations. The survey showed that business sentiment had improved in October from a three-year low in September, leading to a stronger US dollar.

– Investors started to temper their optimism about progress in the US-Sino trade dispute after China is reportedly urging the U.S. to roll back on the September 1 tariffs as part of the “phase one” trade deal expected to be signed later this month.

– Gold prices inched up on Wednesday, after slipping US$30 in the previous session, as investors await further clarity on the US-Sino trade talks. Overnight a stronger US$ coupled with optimism of a trade deal had send Gold tumbling down.

– British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will formally announce a Dec 12 election on Wednesday, urging voters to back him and promising to “get Brexit done in the next few weeks.”

Chart Focus NZD/JPY
Key Points
1. Sell NZD/JPY recommendation.
2. Sell NZD/JPY at 69.35. Stop at 69.75 and target at 68.75
3. Higher NZ unemployment rate and China’s request to roll back tariffs are leading to demand for safe haven JPY
4. Double Top chart pattern with divergence warning of a high, is hinting of a price decline.

Fundamental Comments
1. China’s request to roll back tariffs could derail phrase one trade deal.
2. New Zealand Q3 unemployment rate at 4.2 against 4.1 expectations is leading to hopes for NZ rate cut

Technical Comments
1. Potential Double Top price pattern chart breakout
2. Divergence warning from both MACD and Stochastic hinting of a high

Key Levels

Support	69.10	68.85	68.50
Resistance	69.50	69.95	70.25

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price moved to a high of 109.23 overnight and this could be a possible high. Price has already declined below the 20EMA and the crossover candle was a long red candle. Stochastic is moving lower and MACD is also moving lower. However, MACD is still bullish

Support	108.95	108.65	108.30
Resistance	109.30	109.60	109.90

EUR/USD – Price is testing the neckline of a Double Top chart pattern on the 4-hourly chart at the moment. If price is unable to move above 1.1120, price is likely to 1.1000. MACD has turned bearish and both its lines are below the zero line. Stochastic is into the oversold extreme but is unable to rally, which is a weak sign.

Support	1.1055	1.1025	1.0990
Resistance	1.1080	1.1105	1.1150

GBP/USD – A break of 1.2920 has given rise to a test of 1.2840. Price reached a low of 1.2858 and we do not think this is the low and a further decline is likely. Resistance is likely at 1.2890 and MACD is bearish.  Stochastic is still weak in oversold extreme. We are expecting a test of 1.2840 to 1.2820.

Support	1.2840	1.2805	1.2750
Resistance	1.2890	1.2925	1.2960

XAU/USD – Price dropped $30 last night but stayed within a established range and we think it is likely to continue in this established range of 1480 to 1519 for more consolidation. Stochastic is into the oversold extreme but is about to cross higher. MACD has just turned bearish and is declining. We expect 1479 to hold and price to rise to 1500 again in the next couple of days.

Support	1481.95	1474.10	1463.20
Resistance	1490.20	1498.15	1514.05

NZD/USD – Our sell call was filled yesterday when price rose to a high of 0.6430 in the afternoon. This morning price declined to our profit target at 0.6370 when it reached a low of 0.6365. We are out with a 55 pips profit. MACD is still bearish but Stochastic has shown a bullish divergence and is rising from oversold extreme.  Stay aside for today.

Support	0.6365	0.6335	0.6330
Resistance	0.6390	0.6420	0.6440

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Market Talk

– Both the dollar and riskier Asian currencies held on to modest overnight gains on Tuesday, amid hopes for an easing in Sino-US trade tensions and as investors waited for direction from this week’s FOMC meeting, starting tonight.

– China’s Yuan rose to its strongest level in two weeks after Beijing and Washington said they were “close to finalizing” a first-stage agreement to scale back their trade war, but some traders tempered their optimism because US tariffs remained unresolved and talks could easily fail if a compromise cannot be reached.

– US President Trump said a trade agreement looked to be ahead of schedule on Monday, without detailing the timing, while the U.S. also said it was studying whether to extend tariff suspensions due to expire in December.

– The European Union has agreed to delay Britain’s exit for up to three months, but the country is politically paralyzed and overnight parliament rejected Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s third attempt to schedule a Dec. 12 election. Sterling was lower with Brexit hanging in the balance.

– At this weekly U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, market are expecting FOMC  policy makers to cut interest rates for a third time this year but emphasize their reluctance to ease policy further.

Chart Focus EUR/USD
Key Points
1. Sell EUR/USD recommendation
2. Sell EUR/USD at 1.1090. Stop at 1.1125 and target at 1.1030
3. Brexit uncertainty and interest rate differential are against the Euro dollar.
4. Price is capped by the 20EMA resistance in a bearish trend with MACD bearish and hinting of another price decline

Fundamental Comments
1. Brexit uncertainty is weighing on the Euro dollar
2. Interest rate differential is in the US dollar favour

Technical Comments
1. Price is capped by the 20EMA resistance in a downtrend channel
2. MACD is bearish with both its lines below the zero line

Key Levels

Support	1.1075	1.1030	1.0995
Resistance	1.1120	1.1160	1.1180

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price moved above 109.00 today with a reduction of risk with Sino-US trade talks progressing well. However as price progresses higher, Stochastic is warning with a divergence of a potential price high. However, MACD is still bullish and price could test the high of 109.30. A move below 108.85 could turn the trend bearish again.

Support	108.90	108.65	108.20
Resistance	109.30	109.65	109.90

NZD/JPY – We had a buy call on this pair on Friday which as filled when price dropped to a low of 68.92. However this morning price has moved higher, triggering our stop at 69.50. We are out with a loss of 35 pips. Price may have made a low at 68.92 and could be moving towards 69.80.

Support	69.20	68.85	68.45
Resistance	69.50	69.90	70.20

GBP/USD – Price had dropped below 1.28 on Thursday but had bounced higher to 1.2875 on Monday. MACD is still bullish and Stochastic is turning up after a bullish crossover. We are expecting price to move higher 1.2950. Political proceeding in UK parliament will have a big bearing on Sterling’s price direction

Support	1.2840	1.2810	1.2785
Resistance	1.2875	1.2905	1.2940

XAU/USD – Price reached a high of 1517.90 on Friday and has declined lower to 1489.90 last night. Price looks like it has reached the top of its consolidation range and the decline may not be completed as yet. We think there will be another push lower today to 1480. Look for a correction to 1495 to get into a short position with stop above 1504.

Support	1485.75	1474.10	1462.30
Resistance	1495.50	1508.15	1517.90

USD/CAD – We had a buy call on this pair on Thursday which was filled. Price has declined close to our stop at 1.3040 after reaching a low last night at 1.3048. Stochastic is still weak and MACD is still bearish and below the zero line. We are not too hopeful on this pair at the moment. Keep stop at 1.3040 and profit target at 1.3170.

Support	1.3020	1.2995	1.2955
Resistance	1.3060	1.3095	1.3135

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