NZD/JPY – Page 2 – Tick Insights

FX Commentary – The U.S. Dollar Decline Continues

April 20, 2021April 20, 2021Nicholas

Market Talk

– The U.S. dollar fell sharply against its rivals on Monday as analysts declared the recovery in the greenback over, but stopped short of ruling out a “second wave” of strength on worries the Federal Reserve could raise rates sooner than expected.

– U.S. Treasury yields gave up some of their gains from Monday as the 10-year Treasury yields sank as low as 1.528% before rising to 1.603% on Tuesday as compared with its Monday’s U.S. closing of 1.599%.

– The Australian dollar held firm at $0.7769 after hitting a one-month high of $0.7784 on Monday. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting minutes showed the board would maintain “highly supportive” monetary conditions until employment and inflation goals were achieved.

– The euro rose above $1.20 for the first time in over six weeks, touching a high of $1.2071 on Tuesday morning on the back of a brightening outlook for the region’s vaccination programme.

– Gold came less than $10 from returning to $1,800 an ounce on Monday before retreating from a more than seven-week peak as U.S. Treasury yields gained, weighing on non-yielding bullion’s appeal and countering support from a weaker dollar.

Chart Focus XAU/USD – Gold
Key Points
1. Buy Gold recommendation.
2. Buy Gold at $1767.00. Stop at $1759 and profit target at 1799.00.
3. A lower U.S. Treasury yield and expectations of lower U.S. interest rate and inflation are weighing on the U.S. dollar.
4. Price is supported by the 20EMA with MACD and 20EMA both hinting of a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments
1. A softer U.S. dollar as a result of a retreating yield is likely to lead to higher Gold prices.
2. Expectation that interest rate and inflation will remain low are both likely to weigh on the US dollar.

Technical Comments
1. Price is supported by the 20EMA line, which is hinting of a bullish price trend ahead.
2. MACD is bullish and is hinting of a bullish price trend ahead.

Key Levels

Support	1765.45	1758.50	1749.20
Resistance	1777.80	1789.80	1800.00

Technical Overview
USD/JPY – Yesterday, we had a buy recommendation on this pair which was wrong. We were stopped out and lost 35 pips on this trade. Price reached a low of 107.97 this morning. MACD remains bearish. Stochastic is into the oversold zone and has a bullish crossover hinting of a bullish price trend ahead. However, 20EMA is bearish and hinting of a strong bearish price trend.

Support	107.95	107.55	107.10
Resistance	108.40	108.75	109.10

EUR/USD – Price broke above the resistance at 1.1990 and we saw a rally to 1.12071 this morning. Stochastic is warning of a possible price high with a divergence but MACD remains bullish. 20EMA is also hinting of a bullish price trend ahead. The next resistance ahead lies at 1.2110 and we see price moving higher to test this resistance as long as price stays above 1.1990.

Support	1.2050	1.2015	1.1990
Resistance	1.2080	1.2115	1.2150

GBP/USD – Price broke above 1.3805 last Friday and has reached a high of 1.4008 this morning. MACD remains bullish and is hinting of a bullish price trend ahead. 20EMA is also hinting of a bullish price trend ahead. Stochastic is into the overbought zone. The next resistance ahead lies at 1.4060 and we see price moving higher to test this resistance within the next 24 hours.

Support	1.3975	1.3940	1.3890
Resistance	1.4015	1.4060	1.4090

AUD/USD – Price hit a one-month high of $0.7784 on Monday and this morning, the rally continues with price reaching a high of 0.7803, negating a possible Double Top chart pattern last night. Price may have reached a higher high but both MACD and Stochastic are both showing divergences and warning of a possible price high in the making. The next resistance lies at the Fibonacci 200% price projection at 0.7820.

Support	0.7785	0.7745	0.7705
Resistance	0.7820	0.7850	0.7885

NZD/JPY – Price is approaching a recent high at 78.11 and a break of this resistance is likely to send price higher to the previous high at 79.10. Stochastic has a bullish crossover and is hinting of a bullish price trend ahead. MACD has turned bullish and is moving higher, hinting of a bullish price trend. 20EMA is also moving high and hinting of a bullish price trend. A drop below 77.35 would negate our bullish view for the next couple of days.

Support	77.75	77.35	76.95
Resistance	78.10	78.60	79.10

FX Commentary – US Dollar Continues To Strengthen

March 2, 2021Nicholas

Market Talk
– The US dollar rose to a three-week high as investors bet on faster economic growth and placed a greater tolerance of higher U.S. bond yields and inflation. A survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released on Monday showed U.S. manufacturing activity increased to a three-year high in February amid a surge in new orders boosting sentiment.

– The U.S. economic recovery is on a firmer ground amid successful rollouts of COVID-19 vaccinations and bolstered by prospects of a $1.9 trillion relief package from the Biden Administration with debate to begin in the Senate later in the week.

– The greenback rose to 106.89 yen on Monday, its highest since late August while the euro dipped to $1.2049, near its lowest level in almost two weeks. The euro is lagging as the region falls behind in growth expectations.

– The Australian dollar gained after Australia’s central bank bought more bonds than expected in a bid to stem rapidly rising yields. The Reserve Bank of Australia also kept interest rate at historic low level after its monetary meeting today.

– Gold was down on Tuesday morning in Asia due to a stronger US dollar even with a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields and progress on a massive stimulus package in the U.S. which cheered investor sentiment.

Chart Focus USD/CAD
Key Points
1. Buy USD/CAD recommendation.
2. Buy USD/CAD at 1.2650. Stop at 1.2610 and target at 1.2790.
3. Expectation of a faster economic growth, strong ISM data and rising US Treasury yields are lending support to the US dollar.
4. Price is supported by the Fibonacci 38% correction point and MACD is hinting of a bullish price trend ahead.

Fundamental Comments
1. Expectation of a faster economic growth and strong ISM data overnight are lending support to the US dollar.
2. Rising US bond yields is supporting the US dollar

Technical Comments
1. Price was supported by the Fibonacci 38% correction point and the 20EMA, leading to a bounce of the support area.
2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting of a bullish price trend ahead.

Key Levels

Support	1.2660	1.2635	1.2590
Resistance	1.2695	1.2740	1.2780

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – The price rally continues for another day and price has now reached a high of 106.92. MACD remains bullish but is near to its extreme. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and could be turning down. However, 20EMA is bullish and rising with a steep slope, hinting of a bullish price trend ahead. There is a good chance of the uptrend going higher to 107.05 over the next couple of days but this could be the final destination of the rally.

Support	106.50	106.20	105.80
Resistance	106.95	107.25	107.55

EUR/USD – Price has declined to a low of 1.2015 this morning after reaching a high at 1.2243 on Friday. MACD is starting to warn with divergence, hinting of a possible price low. Stochastic also has a divergence warning and is already at the oversold extreme. 20EMA is bearish at the moment. If price can hold above 1.2015, we see price going up to 1.2105 in the next couple of days.

Support	1.2010	1.1970	1.1930
Resistance	1.2060	1.2090	1.2125

GBP/USD – We had a sell call on this pair at 1.3995 yesterday which was filled when price went to a high of 1.3998. Price has declined to a low of 1.3870. MACD remains bearish but is showing a slowing down of momentum while Stochastic is into the oversold extreme. 20EMA remains bearish and is hinting of a strong bearish price trend ahead. Bring stop lower to 1.3915 and keep profit target at 1.3830.

Support	1.3865	1.3830	1.3775
Resistance	1.3905	1.3950	1.3985

XAU/USD – Price only reached a high of $1759 instead of our targeted $1766 and has declined to a low of $1707.05 earlier today. MACD and Stochastic are both warning with a divergence of a possible price low. Stochastic is also in the oversold extreme. However, 20EMA is bearish and pointing lower with a steep slope, hinting of a bearish price trend ahead. We think price is near to a low and a rally to $1755 is likely in the next couple of days.

Support	1707.05	1693.60	1681.50
Resistance	1719.50	1733.15	1742.60

NZD/JPY – Price reached a low of 76.80 last Friday and we have seen a rally to a high of 77.75 this morning. MACD has remained bearish and is hinting of a bearish price trend ahead. Price is also capped by the falling 20EMA and if price is unable to move above 77.80, we are likely to see another decline to last Friday’s low of 76.80 in the next 1-2 days.

Support	77.35	77.05	76.80
Resistance	77.75	78.10	78.45

FX Commentary – An Increase In Risk Sentiment Send US Dollar Higher

January 28, 2021January 28, 2021Nicholas

Market Talk
– The dollar strengthened on safe haven buying on Thursday morning in Asia, in the wake of a sharp decline in U.S. shares during the previous session. Investors turned to the safe-harbour asset as concerns about excessive valuations remain.

– In its first policy decision of 2021, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept monetary policy unchanged as expected on Wednesday but did signal some concern about the pace of economic recovery, which some traders said is another negative factor.

– The euro nursed losses after a European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot warned on Wednesday that interest rate cuts could be possible to curb the common currency’s recent gains.

– The Chinese offshore yuan fell to a three-week low of 6.5140 per dollar and other Asian currencies as well as the Australian and New Zealand dollars; also fell against the dollar, highlighting broad strength in the greenback.

– Gold prices fell in overnight trading, pressured by concerns over the timing and size of a U.S. coronavirus stimulus bill that is still struck in Congress and strength in the dollar.

Chart Focus EUR/USD
Key Points
1. Sell EUR/USD recommendation.
2. Sell EUR/USD at 1.2130. Stop at 1.2170 and target at 1.2065.
3. Concerns about excessive US stock market valuation and Powell’s warning are both likely to lead to demand for safe haven US dollar.
4. A weak price rally with bearish MACD is a hint of a possible decline ahead.

Fundamental Comments
1. Demand for safe haven US dollar is likely to persist with concerns about excessive valuation for the US stock market.
2. Fed’s Chairman Powell warning about the pace of the US economic recovery is likely to lead to demand for safe haven US dollar.

Technical Comments
1. The rally off the low of 1.2065 has been capped by the falling 20EMA resistance, which is a hint of a weak price rally.
2. MACD is bearish and is hinting of a bearish price trend ahead.

Key Levels

Support	1.2080	1.2055	1.2005
Resistance	1.2110	1.2150	1.2185

Technical Overview–

USD/JPY – Price has broken above last week’s high of 104.10 and should be testing the 8 January 2021 high at 104.39. A break of this high is likely to lead to a test of 104.87. MACD is bullish and 20EMA is rising with a steep slope. Both trend indicators are hinting of more upsides ahead. However, Stochastic is already in the overbought extreme. Inability to break above 104.39 could lead to a decline to 103.60.

Support	104.10	103.80	103.50
Resistance	104.40	104.90	105.40

NZD/JPY – After hitting a high of 75.10, price has been on a decline and this morning, price has dropped below a strong support level at 74.35. This is likely to lead to a decline to 73.65. MACD remains bullish but both of MACD’s lines are moving down with the fast line already below the zero line. 20EMA is also pointing lower with a steep slope, hinting of a strong bearish price trend.

Support	74.05	73.65	73.35
Resistance	74.40	74.80	75.10

GBP/USD – Price failed to hold above 1.3700 and has declined to a low of 1.3650 this morning. Stochastic has reached the oversold zone and is moving in a flat line which is a hint of a loss of downside momentum. MACD remains bearish but is off the low and there was a divergence warning as well. If 1.3650 is the low, then we are likely to see a test of 1.3750 again in the next 48 hours.

Support	1.3650	1.3610	1.3570
Resistance	1.3680	1.3725	1.3760

XAU/USD – We had a buy recommendation on this pair yesterday at $1842.90 but price had declined and hit our stop at $1831.25. MACD has remained bearish and is hinting of a bearish price movement ahead but Stochastic is near to the oversold zone. 20EMA is also bearish. We are expecting price to test the low of $1810 in the next few days. Only a move above $1855 would negate our short term bearish view.

Support	1831.15	1820.20	1810.20
Resistance	1839.05	1850.20	1861.40

XAG/USD – We had a long position from Monday and yesterday we had raised our stop to $25.10. Our stop was taken out when price dropped to a low of $24.68. We lost 15 cents on this trade. MACD has turned bearish. We are expecting price to test the low of $24.68 and later $24.30 in the next 2 days. 20EMA has also turned bearish on the 4-hourly chart and is hinting of a bearish price trend ahead.

Support	24.85	24.60	24.20
Resistance	25.15	25.50	25.75

FX Commentary – US Dollar Was Steady Ahead Of FOMC

January 27, 2021January 28, 2021Nicholas

Market Talk
– The dollar inched up on Wednesday morning in Asia as investors await the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision, to be handed down later in the day after declining in the previous session after IMF upgraded global economic growth.

– Investors will be looking to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments as the Fed wraps up its first policy meeting of 2021 and hands down its policy decision later in the day. He is widely expected to renew a commitment to the current ultra-easy policy.

– The greenback declined against riskier currencies after the IMF upgraded its forecast for 2021 global growth to 5.5% this year, a 0.3 percentage point increase from October 2020’s forecasts, and global gross domestic product to expand by 4.2% in 2022 boosting hopes for a global economic recovery from COVID-19. IMF also warned that new COVID-19 variants could pose a risk to economic recovery.

– The Aussie dollar inched up to 0.7744, with Australian markets returning from a holiday, after a better-than-expected inflation figures were released earlier in the day. Aussie CPI rose 0.9% both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year during the fourth quarter of 2020.

– Gold prices edged lower on concerns over timing and size of a U.S. coronavirus aid package to be passed by Congress, while a slightly weaker dollar and subdued treasury yields limited losses as investors kept a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

Chart Focus XAU/USD Gold
Key Points
1. Buy Gold recommendation.
2. Buy Gold at $1842.90. Stop at $1831.25 and target at $1892.20.
3. Fed likely commitment to ultra-easy policy and IMF upgraded growth forecast are both likely to weaken the US dollar.
4. Price is likely to be supported by the Fibonacci 50% correction point and momentum indicators are hinting of a bullish price trend ahead.

Fundamental Comments
1. Fed likely commitment to an ultra-easy policy is likely to keep Gold strong and US dollar weak.
2. IMF upgraded forecast for global economic growth is likely to lead to less demand for the safe haven US dollar.

Technical Comments
1. Price is likely to be supported by the Fibonacci 50% correction point of the rally.
2. MACD and Stochastic are both near to the low point and both look like they are likely to turn higher.

Key Levels

Support	1842.40	1832.50	1820.20
Resistance	1855.30	1867.65	1874.80

Technical Overview–

USD/JPY – Price range is starting to narrow, which is a hint of a sideways consolidation ahead. On the 4-hourly chart, MACD is also moving in a flat line near to the zero line, confirming the sideways movement. Stochastic could be turning up soon if a bullish crossover is seen. We think price is likely to consolidate within last week’s range of 103.32 to the high of 104.10 for the next few days ahead.

Support	103.60	103.30	102.95
Resistance	103.90	104.15	104.50

EUR/USD – Price seems to have made a 3-wave movement to 1.2190 last week and has declined to 1.2107 yesterday. We may see a movement to 1.2065 within the next few days to complete the decline. MACD is still bullish but is near to the zero line. Stochastic has turned up after a bullish crossover. 20EMA is neutral at the moment. We remain bullish unless 1.2065 price support is broken.

Support	1.2150	1.2110	1.2080
Resistance	1.2185	1.2220	1.2250

GBP/USD – Price had declined below 1.3635 yesterday to a low of 1.3609. After a false break, price has bounced back above 1.3700 again to a high of 1.3751. MACD is bullish and rising. Stochastic is near to the overbought zone. 20EMA is bullish and is pointing higher with a steep slope. Trend indicators are bullish and if price can stay above 1.3700, we can see a test of the 1.3800 handle within the next 24 hours

Support	1.3705	1.3660	1.3610
Resistance	1.3750	1.3795	1.3840

NZD/JPY – We had a sell call on this pair yesterday but price had shot up and our stop was triggered at 74.90. We lost 30 pips as a result. Price reached a high of 75.10 but has been capped by a previous high resistance around 75.00. MACD has warned with a divergence, 20EMA is still rising and strong. Stochastic has reached the overbought zone and is turning down after a bearish crossover.

Support	74.80	74.35	74.05
Resistance	75.10	75.50	75.90

XAG/USD – Our buy recommendation was filled at 25.25 on Monday when price declined to a low of 25.16. MACD has remained bearish while Stochastic is near to the oversold zone. 20EMA remained bearish but is flat and close to the zero line. The 3 indicators are showing mixed signals at the moment. We are cautious and would recommend bringing stop higher to $25.10 while keeping profit target unchanged at 26.50. Price will need to move above 26.05 for the bullish view to be valid.

Support	25.15	24.85	24.60
Resistance	25.50	25.75	26.05

FX Commentary – An Increase In Risk Sentiment Supported The US Dollar.

January 26, 2021Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar steadied on Tuesday as rising coronavirus cases and doubts over the speed and size of U.S. stimulus tempered financial markets’ upbeat mood, while investors were also cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s review later in the week.

– Coronavirus cases are surging and U.S. economic data has pointed to a flagging pace in the recovery, leaving investors looking for the Fed to maintain easy policy at its Wednesday meeting, while bracing for lackluster growth figures on Thursday.

– Investors had thought that Democrats’ control of U.S. Congress, won at Senate runoff elections in early January, could smooth the passage of enormous pandemic relief spending but as lingering concerns about potential roadblocks to the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion stimulus weighed on sentiment lifting the US dollar.

– The euro and yen are likewise hemmed in, with the euro unable to break resistance around $1.2190 while the continent grapples with new COVID-19 infections and fresh lockdowns. The British pound inched down to 1.3670, weighed down by coronavirus pandemic and lockdowns.

– Gold prices pared gains as the dollar edged higher, but expectations of fresh U.S. fiscal stimulus underpinned the bullion ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve’s meeting.

Chart Focus NZD/JPY
Key Points
1. Sell NZD/JPY recommendation.
2. Sell NZD/JPY at 74.60. Stop at 74.90 and target at 73.65.
3. Risk sentiment has increased as a result of rising coronavirus cases and declines in stocks indices and yields.
4. Price is on a bearish price trend which is confirmed by both MACD and Stochastic.

Fundamental Comments
1. Rising coronavirus cases has led to worries over lockdowns and the growth pace of the global economy leading to an increase in risk sentiment.
2. Declining yields and stock indices have led to an increase in risk sentiment which favours the yen.

Technical Comments
1. Price has been capped by the Fibonacci 62% of the decline, which is a sign of a bearish price trend.
2. Both MACD and Stochastic have shown divergence warning of a high and a likely bearish price trend ahead.

Key Levels

Support	74.30	74.05	73.80
Resistance	74.60	74.90	75.15

Technical Overview–

USD/JPY -Price range is starting to narrow, which is a hint of a sideways consolidation ahead. On the 4-hourly chart, MACD is also moving in a flat line near to the zero line, confirming the sideways movement. Stochastic is still moving lower after a bearish crossover earlier. We think price is likely to consolidate within last week’s range of 103.32 to the high of 104.10 for the next few days ahead.

Support	103.65	103.30	102.95
Resistance	103.90	104.15	104.50

EUR/USD – Price seems to have made a 3-wave movement to 1.2190 and has declined to 1.2112 and we may see a movement to 1.2065 within the next few days to complete the decline. MACD is still bullish but Stochastic is still declining after a bearish crossover earlier near the overbought zone. 20EMA is neutral at the moment. We remain bullish unless 1.2065 price support is broken

Support	1.2110	1.2080	1.2050
Resistance	1.2155	1.2185	1.2220

GBP/USD -After touching a high of 1.3742 last week, price tested above 1.3700 again but was capped at 1.3722 on Monday and we have seen a decline to 1.3645. This is near to the support at 1.3635 and if this support is broken, we are likely to see a test of 1.3570 within the next couple of days. MACD is turning bearish and Stochastic is still declining. Watch out for 1.3635 for clues to the next direction

Support	1.3635	1.3595	1.3555
Resistance	1.3675	1.3720	1.3745

XAU/USD – Price has been moving sideways for the past 2 days and MACD has become flat and neutral. Stochastic is in the middle of its range. 20EMA is also flat and neutral, hinting of a sideways movement as well. Price is likely to stay within last week’s range of $1875 to $1836 until we see a breakout of this range. We would recommend staying aside for now until there is a clearer direction.

Support	1850.10	1837.80	1822.65
Resistance	1862.40	1874.80	1884.35

XAG/USD – Our buy recommendation was filled at 25.25 when price declined to a low of 25.16 yesterday. MACD has remained bearish while Stochastic is rising after a bullish crossover. 20EMA has also remained bearish. We are cautious and would recommend bringing stop higher to $24.99 while keeping profit target unchanged at 26.50. Price will need to move above 26.05 for the bullish view to be valid.