Tag: NZD/CHF

Market Talk

–  The dollar dipped against a basket of major currencies on Thursday, reversing earlier gains, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year but indicated the possibility of a pause in easing monetary policy, as was broadly expected.

– Chile has withdrawn as host of an APEC trade summit in November where the United States and China had been expected to take major steps toward ending a 15-month-old trade war. Optimism that the Trump and Xi Jin Ping will sign a deal has faded the day before with Reuters’ report of a possible delay in trade agreement.         

– Sterling edged up after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson won parliamentary approval on Wednesday to hold a general election in December, though moves were limited as large currency options expiring this week curbed volatility.

– The Canadian dollar slumped against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 1.75%, but cited trade conflicts as the resilience of the local economy “will be increasingly tested”.

– China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index manufacturing data for October came in at 49.3 against an expectation of 49.8. Non-manufacturing number was 52.8 against expectation of 53.6, Data showed a weaker economy but Aussie dollar still managed to move higher against a weaker US dollar.

Chart Focus USD/JPY
Key Points
1. Sell USD/JPY recommendation
2. Sell USD/JPY at 108.80. Stop at 109.10 and target at 108.10
3. FOMC rate cut and a delay in Sino-US trade deal are both likely to weigh on the US$
4. A Shooting Star candlestick price pattern and MACD are both warning of a possible price peak

Fundamental Comments
1. FOMC rate cut is likely to weigh on the US$
2. A delay in Sino-US trade deal is likely to benefit safe haven JPY

Technical Comments
1. A Shooting Star candlestick price pattern is warning of a possible price top
2. MACD has a divergence warning of a possible price high

Key Levels

Support	108.50	108.20	107.95
Resistance	108.85	109.05	109.30

Technical Overview

NZD/CHF – We had a sell call yesterday on this pair which was filled. Price went to a low of 0.6283 last night but price move above our stop at 0.6340 this morning. We are out with a 35 pips loss. The rally may not be over as yet. The decline is likely to be halted around 0.6315 and another push to 0.6370 is likely. MACD is still bullish but Stochastic is in the overbought extreme.

Support	0.6315	0.6280	0.6250
Resistance	0.6345	0.6365	0.6400

EUR/USD – Our sell call from Tuesday was stopped out last night. We lost 35 pips on that trade. Price is likely to continue its rally to test the resistance at 1.1180. Stochastic is into the overbought extreme but MACD is still bullish and we think there is still hope for a test of 1.1180

Support	1.1150	1.1120	1.1075
Resistance	1.1180	1.1215	1.1250

GBP/USD – We are looking at price testing 1.2950 and currently price has reached a high of 1.2935. There is no reversal clue at the moment and we presume price will continue on its way to 1.2950. A break of 1.2950 could lead to a test of 1.3010. An inability to surmount 1.2950 could lead to a decline back to 1.2800. MACD is bullish but Stochastic in into the overbought extreme.

Support	1.2895	1.2840	1.2805
Resistance	1.2950	1.2985	1.3010

XAU/USD – Price make a dip to 1481 on the announcement of FOMC decision last night but this does not distract us from our view of a low being formed and a likely movement to test 1504 in the next couple of days. Stochastic is rising but MACD is still bearish at the moment with both its line in opposite half of the zero line. A move below 1480 will negate our bullish view for 1504.

Support	1494.70	1486.35	1474.10
Resistance	1504.80	1517.90	1524.30

USD/CAD – Our buy call survived when price moved to a low of 1.3041 on Tuesday and last night price moved above our profit target at 1.3170. We are out with a profit of 95 pips. The price rally may not be completed. We think there will be another push above 1.3200. MACD is still bullish although Stochastic is declining.

Support	1.3150	1.3120	1.3085
Resistance	1.3180	1.3210	1.3240

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Market Talk

– The dollar traded narrowly on Wednesday morning as markets braced for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve while sterling steadied as Britain heads for an early general election that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson hopes will break the deadlock over Brexit.

– The Federal Reserve is largely expected to slash interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting this week with result expected on Thursday morning at 2am Singapore time. That would mark its third rate cut for 2019, undoing the four rate hikes of 2018.

– Optimism that Washington and Beijing would finalize the first-stage of a trade deal next month had boosted risk assets in recent days, but Reuters reported that phase one trade deal may not be signed at a November summit in Chile turned market wary on the prospect that a trade deal could be delayed.

– The pound climbed as high as $1.2903 overnight on news that an election date was likely to be agreed but pared gains after the House of Commons approved Johnson’s bill calling for a Dec. 12 election by 438 to 20.

– Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday that the consumer price index for the September quarter rose 0.5%, as compared to a 0.6% increase in the previous quarter. However, Aussie barely changed against other currencies.

Chart Focus NZD/CHF
Key Points
1. Sell NZD/CHF recommendation
2. Sell NZD/CHF at 0.6305. Stop at 0.6340 and target at 0.6260
3. Delay in a Sino-US trade deal and Brexit uncertainty are sending capital into safe haven Swiss Francs
4. Bearish price pattern coupled with bearish momentum are sign of a bearish trend

Fundamental Comments
1. Prospect of a trade deal delay is moving capital into safe haven CHF
2. Brexit uncertainty is also sending capital into safe haven CHF

Technical Comments
1. Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern with price capped by Fibonacci 62% correction are signs of a bearish price trend
2. MACD is bearish and turning lower. Stochastic is also turning down.

Key Levels

Support	0.6290	0.6260	0.6220
Resistance	0.6315	0.6340	0.6365

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price made a marginal new high at 109.05 overnight but the trend is still bullish. Price is currently supported by the 20 EMA, which could push price higher to 109.30. MACD is still bullish and could be turning up. Stochastic is declining but is still above the mid-range. We are expecting price to move higher to 109.30.

Support	108.65	108.20	107.95
Resistance	109.05	109.35	109.60

EUR/USD – Our sell call yesterday was filled when price moved to high of 1.1117. Price could be moving higher again later today if it can break above 1.1125. MACD is still bullish with both its lines above the zero line. Stochastic is into the overbought zone and declining. Current support lies at the 20EMA point of 1.1105. Keep stop at 1.1125 and profit target at 1.1030.

Support	1.1075	1.1030	1.0995
Resistance	1.1120	1.1160	1.1180

GBP/USD – Our view remains the same as yesterday. We think price is likely to test 1.2950 in the next 24 hours. However, 20EMA has gone flat and MACD is getting flat and neutral as well. Stochastic is also getting weak ahead of its overbought zone. We think price could be consolidating ahead of the FOMC meeting tonight. Stay aside for now.

Support	1.2840	1.2810	1.2785
Resistance	1.2875	1.2905	1.2950

XAU/USD – Price reached a high of 1496.70 overnight and from there declined lower to 1483.40. We think the low could be in instead of our original target of 1480. However, the price bounce from the low is not very impulsive. We could see a sideway consolidation ahead of the FOMC meeting before the breakout. Stay aside for now.

Support	1486.35	1474.10	1462.30
Resistance	1494.70	1508.15	1517.90

USD/CAD – Price reached a low of 1.3041 and we survived to fight another day. Our view remained unchanged and we would keep our orders at 1.3040 for stop and profit target at 1.3170. Stochastic is rising and MACD has turned bullish. 20EMA has also turned bullish. The next resistance is at 1.3120 and a break above will target 1.3170.

Support	1.3060	1.3020	1.2995
Resistance	1.3095	1.3125	1.3160

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