Strategy
Buy 1.3600 with a stop below 1.3490 for 1.3810
Technical View
Price broke above the cloud recently changing the chart outlook from bearish to bullish. The breakout also has a larger candlestick than the candlesticks of the past few days, hinting of a genuine breakout. Conversion and Base lines had a bullish crossover, hinting of a bullish price trend. Lagging Span is above price of 26 days ago as well as above the cloud, confirming the bullish price trend. Going by the Fibonacci price projection, price could be moving to the 261.8% price projection target at 1.3810 if price can break above the immediate overhead resistance at 1.3690. MACD is bullish and both its lines are moving higher, which is a hint that price could be moving higher in immediate future.
Fundamental View
US 10-year Treasury yield has been rising and has reached a high of 1.56%, it’s highest in the past three month, aiding the US dollar and its rally against its major peers. The Singapore dollar is no exception and is expected to weaken further as yields continues to move higher. US Treasury yields are expected to move higher as the Federal Reserve reduced its asset purchases later in the year before raising interest rate in 2022.
Heightened worries about the global growth outlook is also lending support to the safe haven US dollar. Global growth seems to hit by inflation and supply shortage. With demand growing as the global economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, as producers tried to ramp up production, a power and fuel shortage in China and Britain respectively is hitting supply chain hard. As a result, price increase can be attributed to inflation and not real growth.
US government has reached the limit on its debt ceiling and Congress is trying to raise this limit so that the Federal government will not go into a default. While the risk of a default is low, with Congress likely to pass a higher debt ceiling like it did in previous year, the risk is there and investors are taking cautions and are turning to the safe haven US dollar instead of riskier currencies.