FX Trading Idea – USD/SGD

Buy 1.3160 with a stop below 1.3000 for 1.3530

Technical View
After reaching a high at 1.4645 in March 2020, price has been on a decline. The decline had reached a low of 1.3155 on January 2021 and a second attempt to test the low also managed to hold above this support. The second test recently could be a sign that the 12 months downtrend could be coming to an end. This could be a base building process. Ability to hold above this low is likely to lead to a rally that could bring price to 1.3530.

Stochastic is almost into the oversold zone, hinting of a limited downside. MACD is bearish at the moment but is close to the zero line, which is a hint of a weak downtrend. 20EMA is near to price and its gradient is also not steep. This is also a sign that the downtrend has become weak. A move above the 20EMA could bring higher to test 1.3530.

Fundamental View
The number of coronavirus cases continues to decline in the US and successful vaccine rollout is one of the reasons that have led to a re-opening of the US economy. The re-opening of the US economic has led to sentiment improving as the economy recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, the US economy is recovering at its fastest pace in the past 40 years and inflation is a big worry for the investing public as well as the central bank. While this week FOMC is too early for the Federal Reserve to announce a tapering, it is likely that an earlier than expected tapering is likely. This is likely to lead to US bond yields rising and a stronger US dollar.

With the US recovering, with the number of unemployed numbers being reduced as the economic recovery picked up pace, the US central bank may not be able to hold off hiking interest well into 2022 as has been promised and the investing public has come to accept. An earlier end of ultra-easy monetary policy is likely to lead to a stronger US dollar. With the IMF upgrading global economic growth for a second time in 3 months to 6%, it is more likely we will see a hike in interest rate than we have come to expect and led to believe by the US central bank.

A recent increase in the number to coronavirus cases in Singapore had led to a second phrase of lockdown in Singapore which is likely to affect its economic performance. This could lead to the Singapore dollar losing its strength gained over the past 12 months. While there is improvement in the fight against the virus in Singapore, there are still no signs when the lockdown could be fully lifted which could drag its economic growth lower.

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