FX Commentary – Gold Recovered From A 2-week Low

Market Talk

– Major currencies hardly budged on Wednesday as investors look for concrete developments on U.S.-China trade as the threat of increased tariffs looms if no deal is concluded before Dec.15. Many market participants are now hesitant to make big bets before they see the actual deal and with Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday in the U.S.

– Leading negotiators from Washington and Beijing held another phone conversation to discuss and resolve trade issues, China’s Ministry of Commerce said. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, both sides were in the “final throes” of a deal but he also underscored Washington’s support for protesters in Hong Kong which is a potential huge sore point with China and could derail an imminent trade deal.

– Gold prices edged higher from a two-week low hit earlier on Tuesday, with investors awaiting more details on the imminent trade agreement between the United States and China. Gold earlier touched its lowest since Nov. 12 at $1,450.30, having posted losses in the previous four sessions.

– On Tuesday, data showed the U.S. trade deficit fell sharply in October as both exports and imports declined. U.S. consumer confidence fell for a fourth straight month in November amid worries about current business conditions and employment prospects, but remained at levels sufficient to support a steady pace of consumer spending.

– Cable was soft on polls showing the Conservatives Party losing some momentum in polls. The pound hit a low of 1.2835 into the London closing. The Euro was little changed, holding above key 1.1000 for a second day.

Chart Focus AUD/NZD
Key Points
1. Buy AUD/NZD recommendation
2. Buy AUD/NZD at 1.0535. Stop at 1.0495 and target at 1.0640
3. RBA’s Lowe ruling out QE and RBNZ forecasted to lower interest rate is weighing on the NZ dollar
4. Price has reached the extreme price target and MACD is warning of a possible low.

Fundamental Comments
1. RBA’s Governor Lowe ruling out QE is favourable for the Aussie dollar

2. RBNZ is expected to lower interest rate which should weigh on the NZD

Technical Comments
1. Price has reached the extreme price target and could be due for a correction
2. MACD is showing bullish divergence as price moved lower

Key Levels

Support 1.05301.04901.0460
Resistance 1.05751.06101.0655

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – For a 7th consecutive day, price has stayed within a 100 pips range. Last Thursday, price had tested the lower boundary and has bounced higher. Yesterday, price was moving towards the upper boundary and today price is likely to test the 109.30 upper range boundary. Unless this 100-pips range is breached, price is likely to stay within this range.

Support 108.85108.45108.20
Resistance 109.30109.75110.10

EUR/USD – Both our profit and stop order was not touched yesterday. Today, we think price is likely to reach our profit target at 1.0990, as the rally was capped at 1.1025 despite breaching the 20EMA. Stochastic is moving lower towards the oversold extreme and MACD is now bearish. Keep our orders at 1.1035 and 1.0990.

Support 1.09901.09601.0930
Resistance 1.10301.10501.1090

GBP/USD – Yesterday, price was close to our stop but today, price is closer to our profit target. The 20EMA is now moving lower and its gradient steep, which is a sign of a strong bearish trend. MACD is still bearish. Stochastic is moving lower. Lower stop to cost at 1.2875 and keep profit target unchanged at 1.2800.

Support 1.28351.28001.2770
Resistance 1.28701.29101.2945

XAU/USD – Price reached a low of 1449.75 last night and has bounced higher above 1456. The low could have been made and price could be heading higher. Price is sitting on the 20EMA at the moment and if price can hold above this 20EMA support, price is likely to move up to 1468. MACD is still bullish and is starting to turn up from its correction.

Support 1455.101445.501438.20
Resistance 1463.801478.701486.15

USD/SGD – Yesterday we had recommended a buy for this pair but price dropped to a low of 1.3636, missing our buy order at 1.3635. Price has moved up to 1.3660 now but our view remains unchanged. We are expecting price to move higher to 1.3710 in the next couple of days. Stochastic is moving lower but MACD is still bullish but showing some weaknesses.

Support 1.36301.35901.3555
Resistance 1.36601.36901.3730

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