EUR/USD – Page 2 – Tick Insights

FX Commentary – US Dollar Weakened On Expectation Of A Pause By The Fed in Rate Hike.

March 14, 2023March 14, 2023Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar languished near a multi-week low on Tuesday as fears of a broader systemic crisis following the collapse of a U.S. tech-focused lender left traders speculating that the Federal Reserve could pause its aggressive rate-hiking cycle.

– Over the weekend, U.S. authorities launched emergency measures to shore up banking confidence in the wake of the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank. The fallout sent traders scaling back their bets on how much further the Fed would continue raising interest rates sending the U.S. dollar tumbling.

– The greenback was marginally higher against the Japanese yen at 133.42 on Tuesday morning, having slid 1.4% on Monday. Sterling edged down to $1.2159, though it remained near its one-month peak of $1.2200 hit in the previous session. The euro fell to $1.0719, but was likewise not far from Monday’s one-month top of $1.0748.

– The Aussie fell 0.29% to $0.6648, reversing some of its 1.3% jump in the previous session, while the kiwi shed 0.18% to stand at $0.6209, having similarly surged 1.4% on Monday.

– Gold prices stuck to a near six-week high above $1900 on Tuesday as concerns over a U.S. banking crisis saw investors scramble for traditional safe havens, with focus now turning to upcoming inflation data later in the global day for more cues on monetary policy.

Chart Focus NZD/USD

Key Points

1. Buy NZD/USD recommendation.

2. Buy NZD/USD at 0.6175. Stop at 0.6145 and profit target at 0.6260.

3. A banking crisis is likely to delay a Fed hike and is likely to weigh on the US dollar.

4. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA line with MACD hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. A U.S. banking crisis is likely to weigh on the U.S. dollar.

2. A US banking crisis may also delay the Fed hike cycle which is likely to weigh on the US dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA line as well as a previous resistance turned support line.

2. MACD is bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend.

Key Levels

Support	0.6195	0.6160	0.6120
Resistance	0.6230	0.6275	0.6310

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – We saw a decline to 133.27 on Monday as result from SVB and Signature Bank’s failure. Price took a breather this morning as the Federal Reserve moved to cap the fall out, moving up to 134.06 this morning. We think price is likely to be capped by the 20EMA at 134.60 and we are likely to see price decline to 132.27 again in the next 48 hours. While MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a bearish price trend, stochastic is hinting at a limited downside.

Support	133.25	132.60	132.25
Resistance	133.95	134.60	135.05

EUR/USD – We had a buy call yesterday at 1.0700 which was filled when price declined to a low of 1.0650. Unfortunately, the decline also triggered our stop at 1.0670. After the dip, price had a rally to 1.0748 but has moved lower this morning. We are expecting a decline to the 20EMA line at 1.0655. From there we could see a rally to 1.08 again in the next few days. However, this view will also depend on the inflation data that will be released later tonight.

Support	1.0665	1.0635	1.0590
Resistance	1.0705	1.0745	1.0790

GBP/USD – Price moved above the resistance high of 1.2145 overnight to reach a high of 1.2199. We are likely to see price supported at 1.2140 and a rally to follow in the next 48 hours to 1.2265. Stochastic is in the overbought position and is hinting at a limited upside. MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a bullish price trend. We see price moving higher to 1.2265. Only a price move below 1.2020 would negate our bullish view.

Support	1.2140	1.2080	1.2040
Resistance	1.2195	1.2240	1.2270

XAU/USD – Price broke above the Shooting Star candlestick’s high yesterday and continued the rally to a high of $1914.60. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and is hinting at a price decline. However, MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a strong bullish price trend. We remain cautious and see a limited upside to $1921.50. Tonight inflation data will also play a big role in the next price movement.

Support	1900.35	1885.56	1871.30
Resistance	1914.60	1927.30	1942.05

USD/CAD – Price had made a high at 1.3861 last week and a price decline had sent price lower to 1.3676 overnight. We think the current corrective rally in price is likely to be halted by the 20EMA line at 1.3755 and from here are we likely to see a decline to 1.3620 in the next 48 hours. Stochastic is close to the oversold zone and is hinting at a limited downside but 20EMA and MACD are both hinting at a bearish price trend ahead.

Support	1.3710	1.3675	1.3620
Resistance	1.3755	1.3800	1.3860

FX Commentary – US Dollar Weakened On Easing Of Inflation

March 13, 2023Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar weakened on Friday after U.S. labour data for February showed slower wage growth, suggesting an easing of inflation pressures may keep the Federal Reserve’s pace of interest rate hikes modest and thereby reduce the greenback’s appeal.

– The U.S. economy added jobs at a brisk clip in February, but slower wage growth and a rise in the unemployment rate prompted financial markets to dial back expectations for a 50-basis point rate hike when Fed policymakers meet in two weeks.

– The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes fell more than 22 basis points to under 3.70% in the biggest single-day drop in four months, on news of the closing of SVB Financial group, largest bank failure since the financial crisis. The Japanese yen strengthened 1.01% to 134.79 per dollar.

– The euro was up 0.86% to $1.0731, hovering near the one-month high of $1.0737 it scaled earlier. Sterling was trading at $1.2139, up 0.92% on the day. The Australian dollar surged 1.41% to $0.667, while the kiwi gained 1% to 0.6200.

– Gold prices hit a one-month high on Monday at $1,878.92 an ounce, recovering sharply from recent losses as markets bet that a burgeoning banking crisis in the U.S. will push the Federal Reserve into softening its hawkish rhetoric in the coming days.

Chart Focus EUR/USD

Key Points

1. Buy EUR/USD recommendation.

2. Buy EUR/USD at 1.0700. Stop at 1.0670 and profit target at 1.0795

3. Expectation of a hike by the ECB and improved risk sentiment are both likely to weigh on the U.S. dollar.

4. A Double Bottom chart pattern and MACD are both hinting at a price rally.

Fundamental Comments

1. Expectation of a rate hike by ECB this Thursday is aiding the Euro.

2. Capping the fallout from SVB and Signature Bank has improved risk sentiment and weigh on the U.S. dollar.

Technical Comments

1. A Double Bottom chart pattern is hinting at a price rally.

2. MACD is bullish and hinting at a price rally ahead.

Key Levels

Support	1.0695	1.0645	1.0610
Resistance	1.0740	1.0800	1.0850

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – We saw a decline to 133.52 this morning as result from SVB and Signature Bank failure. The yen is likely to take a breather as the US Fed moved to cap the fall out. We may see another attempt in the next 24 hours to test the low at 133.52. A break of this low is likely to send price lower to 132.90 Stochastic is hinting at a limited downside but both MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a price decline.

Support	134.15	133.55	133.15
Resistance	134.65	135.15	135.80

AUD/USD – Price has moved out of a Double Bottom chart pattern which is hinting at a price rally. Stochastic is hinting at a price rally. Both 20EMA and MACD are also hinting at a price rally. We think price is likely to move up to 0.6700 in the next 48 hours. A move above this resistance is likely to send price higher to 0.6775. However, failure to move above 0.6700 is likely to send price lower to 0.6560.

Support	0.6635	0.6595	0.6560
Resistance	0.6675	0.6705	0.6755

GBP/USD – Since reaching a low at 1.1802 last week, we have seen price rallied to a high at 1.2140 this morning. There is a strong resistance at 1.2145 and price will need to move above this resistance to continue its rally. Failure is likely to send price lower to 1.1980. Stochastic is hinting at a limited upside. However, MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a price rally. We see price moving above the resistance to 1.2265 in the next 48 hours.

Support	1.2070	1.2015	1.1980
Resistance	1.2140	1.2185	1.2220

XAU/USD – Price reached a high of $1893.35 this morning after the failure of 2 US banks raised risk sentiment, aiding the yellow metal. However, two Shooting Star candlesticks are hinting at a price decline ahead. Stochastic is also hinting at a possible price high and a decline ahead. However, MACD and 20EMA are both showing a bullish price trend. We see price moving lower to $1850 in a corrective decline in the next two days.

Support	1870.30	1858.80	1846.40
Resistance	1882.10	1893.35	1900.40

USD/CAD – Price had made a top at 1.3861 last week as price has currently moved below the 20EMA as well as moved below an important support level. We are expecting the decline to continue towards 1.3645 in the next couple of days. Stochastic is hinting at a price decline. Both MACD and 20EMA are also hinting at a price decline. Only a move above 1.386 will negate our bearish view for the next few days.

Support	1.3710	1.3665	1.3620
Resistance	1.3760	1.3815	1.3865

FX Commentary – U.S. Dollar Rallied On Hawkish Powell’s Testimony.

March 8, 2023Nicholas

Market Talk

– The U.S. dollar hit a three-month high against a basket of currencies on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank is likely to raise rates more than previously expected and warned that the process of getting inflation back to 2% has “a long way to go.”

– Fed officials in December had forecast that rates would increase to between 5.00% and 5.25% this year. Traders are now pricing for the Fed rate to peak at 5.64% in September 2023 after Powell’s testimony. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a roughly 60% probability that the Fed will hike rates by 50 basis points at its March 21-22 meeting.

– The greenback reached 137.17 Japanese yen, up around 0.9% on the day and the highest since 20 Dec. after the yield on two-year Treasury notes which best reflects short-term rate expectations, hit 5% for the first time since July 2007.

– The Australian dollar slid 2.2% to $0.6585, its lowest since Nov 11 after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to the highest in more than a decade, as expected, but suggested it might be nearly done tightening.

– Gold was down more than US$30 on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that U.S. rate hikes could end up being a lot higher than once imagined. Gold was last trading at $1811, while silver was trading at $19.91 on Wednesday morning.

Chart Focus AUD/JPY

Key Points

1. Buy AUD/JPY recommendation.

2. Buy AUD/JPY at 90.40. Stop at 90.05 and profit target at 91.25

3. Divergent monetary policy and interest rate differential are in the Aussie dollar favour.

4. A strong candlestick and stochastic are both hinting at a price rally.

Fundamental Comments

1. Interest rate differential is in the Aussie dollar favour.

2. Divergent monetary policy is likely to aid the Aussie dollar.

Technical Comments

1. A strong candlestick is hinting at a price bottom.

2. Stochastic is hinting at a price rally.

Key Levels

Support	90.45	90.10	89.85
Resistance	90.90	91.30	91.75

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – Price broke above the previous day’s high at 137.17, which was the highest since 20 Dec. The rally has continued to a high of 137.81 at the point of this writing. Price is likely to continue higher to 138.15 in the next 24 hours. Stochastic is hinting at an overbought situation and limited upsides. However, 20EMA and MACD are both hinting at a bullish price trend. We are also looking at a test of 138.17 and a move above this resistance.

Support	137.15	136.65	136.15
Resistance	137.85	138.20	138.60

EUR/USD – Price broke the low of 1.0532 and it looks like the decline will continue lower to 1.0480 in the next 24 hours. 20EMA is hinting at a bearish price trend. MACD is also hinting at a bearish price trend. Stochastic is turning and is hinting at a bearish price trend. Only a price move above the 20EMA at 1.0695 will negate our bearish view for the next few days.

Support	1.0525	1.0480	1.0440
Resistance	1.0555	1.0605	1.0645

GBP/USD – Price broke below the previous low of 1.1915 and declined to a low of 1.1818 at the point of this writing. 20EMA and MACD are both hinting at a strong bearish price trend but stochastic is hinting at a limit downside. We are bearish and we are looking at a price decline to 1.1640 in the next few days. Only a price move above the 20EMA at 1.2040 would negate our bearish view.

Support	1.1810	1.1760	1.1710
Resistance	1.1850	1.1905	1.1980

XAU/USD – We had a buy call on Gold at $1845 yesterday but we were wrong on this call. Price has declined to low of $1811.25 this morning and the decline is likely to continue to the previous week low at $1804.50. Both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a continuation of the price decline. Stochastic is hinting at a limited downside. We would prefer to watch the reaction at the previous low of $1804.50 for further clue.

Support	1804.50	1796.95	1784.75
Resistance	1815.95	1831.70	1842.50

NZD/USD – We had a buy recommendation on Monday at 0.6205 which was filled. Yesterday, we had recommended keeping stop at 0.6170 and profit target at 0.6305. Our stop was triggered yesterday. The decline had taken out the previous week’s low at $0.6130, hinting at a bearish price trend. Stochastic, MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bearish price trend. We see price moving lower to 0.6020 in the next 24 hours.

Support	0.6080	0.6040	0.5995
Resistance	0.6105	0.6160	0.6305

FX Commentary – US Dollar Subdued Ahead Of Powell’s Congress Testimony

March 7, 2023Nicholas

Market Talk
– The U.S. dollar was subdued on Tuesday ahead of testimony by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, as investors awaited his testimony and jobs data due later this week for further indications on how much higher the U.S. central bank is likely to raise interest rates.

– Powell is likely to outline the path of interest rates in the coming months in his testimony before Congress and market will be watching for any new signals, given that while inflation unexpectedly rose in January, other economic indicators showed the U.S. economy was cooling.

– The Australian dollar declined to 0.6715 after Australia’s central bank raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to the highest in more than a decade at 3.60% on Tuesday. RBA said it expects further tightening will be needed to curb inflation but recent data suggested a lower risk of a cycle in which prices and wages chase one another.

– The euro was 0.03% lower at $1.0675, having risen nearly 0.5% overnight. Sterling was last trading at $1.2025. The Japanese yen weakened 0.15% to 136.14 per dollar ahead of the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday.

– Gold prices kept to a tight range on Tuesday as markets hunkered down ahead of more cues on monetary policy from a testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Bullion was trading at $1847.50 per ounce while silver was last at $21.07.

Chart Focus XAU/USD – Gold

Key Points

1. Buy Gold recommendation.

2. Buy Gold at $1845.00. Stop at $1838.00 and profit target at $1870.00

3. The US dollar is likely to be weighed down by Powell’s disinflation comment and weak economic data.

4. A Rising Wedge chart pattern and MACD are hinting at a price rally.

Fundamental Comments

1. Fed Chair Powell is likely to stick to his disinflation comment, keeping the US weak.

2. US economic data are hinting at a slowdown in the US economy, weighing on the US dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price could be forming a Rising Wedge chart pattern which is hinting at a rally in price.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a price rally.

Technical Overview

USD/JPY – After price reached a high at 137.09 last Thursday, price has been on a decline. There is an important support at 135.25. If price can stay above this support, we are likely to see another test of the 137.10 high. However, if price fails to hold above the support, price is likely to decline to a previous low at 134.60. Both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a price decline but stochastic is hinting at a price rally

Support	135.60	135.25	134.60
Resistance	136.15	136.65	137.10

EUR/USD – Price has been moving in a narrow range since last Wednesday and today price is likely to test the upper end of its range. If price is able to move above the previous high of 1.0690, we are likely to see a continuation of the rally to 1.0790. However, failure to move above 1.0690 is likely to send price lower to 1.0575 in the next couple of days. Stochastic is hinting at a limited upside but both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a price rally.

Support	1.0655	1.0610	1.0575
Resistance	1.0695	1.0730	1.0790

GBP/USD – After testing the low of 1.1915 on three different days, price has bounced up above the 20EMA and we are likely to see this rally continues towards the previous high at 1.2140. Stochastic is moving higher and hinting at a price rally, but the upside could be limited with stochastic inside the overbought zone. MACD and 20EMA are both hinting at a bullish price trend. A move below 1.1990 would negate our bullish view.

Support	1.1990	1.1960	1.1910
Resistance	1.2050	1.2090	1.2140

AUD/USD – Price looks like it will decline below the recent low at 0.6695, despite a hike of 25 basis points by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA’s dovish comment actually sent price declining. Currently all 3 indicators, stochastic, MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a continuation of the price decline. We are likely to see a price decline to the next support level at 0.6620 in the next 24 hours.

Support	0.6685	0.6650	0.6620
Resistance	0.6730	0.6770	0.6805

NZD/USD – We had a buy recommendation yesterday at 0.6205, which was filled when price declined to a low of 0.6172. This was also just above our stop at 0.6170. Stochastic has a bullish crossover and is moving higher, hinting at a price rally. However both MACD and 20EMA are hinting at a bearish price trend. Our view remains unchanged and we would recommend keeping stop at 0.6170 and profit target at 0.6305.

Support	0.6170	0.6130	0.6095
Resistance	0.6215	0.6265	0.6310

FX Commentary – U.S. Dollar Holds Its Gains As Market Await NFP

March 6, 2023March 6, 2023Nicholas

Market Talk

– The U.S. dollar made a tentative start to the week on Monday as investors awaited testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and looked towards for a February jobs report that will likely influence how hawkish the U.S. central bank will be.

– The spotlight will be firmly on the February jobs report scheduled for Friday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Citibank strategists expect Powell to indicate a preference for a 25 bps hike but leave all options on the table, since he will speak before the jobs data are released.

– The euro was down 0.02% to $1.0632, having gained 0.8% last week. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.01% to 135.85 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.203, down 0.08% on the day.

– The offshore Chinese yuan opened at 6.9072 per dollar and was last changing hands at 6.9067. On Sunday, China set a modest target for 2023 economic growth of around 5% as it kicked off the annual session of its National People’s Congress.

– Gold prices were mixed on Monday amid some uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy. Bullion prices were aided by a drop in the dollar last week, breaking a five-week losing spree as traders reassessed their expectations for U.S. interest rate hikes this year.

Chart Focus NZD/USD

Key Points

1. Buy NZD/USD recommendation.

2. Buy NZD/USD at 0.6205. Stop at 0.6170 and profit target at 0.6305.

3. A strong China PMI data and a weak U.S. manufacturing activity are aiding the Kiwi.

4. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA line with MACD hinting at a bullish price trend.

Fundamental Comments

1. A strong China PMI is aiding the Kiwi.

2. A weak U.S. manufacturing activity is weighing on the US dollar.

Technical Comments

1. Price is likely to be supported by the 20EMA line.

2. MACD remains bullish and is hinting at a bullish price trend.

Key Levels

Support	0.6200	0.6170	0.6130
Resistance	0.6240	0.6275	0.6310

Technical Overview

Support	135.60	135.25	134.60
Resistance	136.10	136.65	137.10

EUR/USD – Price has been moving in a narrow range since last Wednesday and today is the fourth day of the narrow range movement. The 20EMA is hinting at a price rally that is likely to send price above the high at 1.0690. Stochastic and MACD are also hinting at a price rally. However, if price moves below 1.0570, it is likely to decline to 1.0530 in the next few days. We favour the upside.

Support	1.0610	1.0565	1.0530
Resistance	1.0655	1.0690	1.0730

GBP/USD – After testing the low of 1.1915 on three different days, price has bounced up above the 20EMA and we are likely to see this rally continues towards the previous high at 1.2140. Stochastic is moving higher and hinting at a price rally. Both 20EMA and MACD are also hinting at a price rally. We see price going up to 1.2140 in the next couple of days. A move below 1.1910 would negate our bullish view.

Support	1.2000	1.1960	1.1910
Resistance	1.2050	1.2090	1.2145

XAU/USD – Price has been moving higher since bottoming out on 28 February at $1804.50. Price has reached a high of $1856.40 this morning but this high was accompanied by a divergence warning from the MACD indicator as well as the stochastic indicator. Price may have reached a high and we see price moving low to $1825-$1830 again in the next few days. 20EMA remains bullish so the decline may be a correction of the recent rally.

Support	1838.75	1825.70	1818.95
Resistance	1856.50	1870.05	1885.20

USD/CHF – After reaching a high at 0.9439, price has been on a decline. The decline has reached a previous low at 0.9340. A move below this support point would confirm a top in place and a decline lower to 0.9285. Both MACD and 20EMA are supporting this price decline with a bearish price trend hint. However, stochastic is close to the oversold zone and is hinting at a limited downside and a price bounce from this support. We break a move to 0.9285.

Support	0.9340	0.9300	0.9255
Resistance	0.9375	0.9405	0.9440